Revolutions have historically remodelled societies, governments, and the world. They are usually driven by a combination of economic, political, and social injustices. For instance, financial hardships and economic inequality often fuel discontent; lack of political freedoms and authoritarian rule can lead to widespread anger; and perceived or real grievances, when blown out of proportion through a suitably orchestrated media campaign, can mobilise large groups of people.
Revolutions usually also take strange turns. A protest may start with limited aims in mind but could acquire a life of its own resulting in unexpected outcomes. Different agendas and interests sneak in, often hijacking the cause of the original protest and turning it into a full-blown revolution, with varying outcomes.
Positive: Successful revolutions can lead to greater political freedoms, economic prosperity, and social justice. For example, the American Revolution (1775) led to the establishment of a democratic government in the US.
Mixed: The French Revolution (1789) overthrew the monarchy, leading to a republic, but also resulted in the Reign of Terror and eventually the rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. Similarly, while Colour Revolutions in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004) and Kyrgyzstan (2005) achieved significant political changes and democratic gains, their long-term success in terms of sustained reforms and stability has been mixed.
Negative: Some revolutions did not have the intended outcomes and instead resulted in greater chaos and disorder. For instance, the Arab Spring (2010-12) led to civil wars in countries like Syria and Libya.
The Bangladesh revolution
On 5 August, student-led protests in Bangladesh led to the ousting of the democratically elected leader, Sheikh Hasina. The protests, which began in December 2022, were fuelled by long-standing issues that had accumulated over many years. Various factors contributed to the uprising and its escalation into a full-blown revolution. Addressing some of these concerns promptly and empathetically might have nipped the protests in the bud.
The reinstatement of a controversial quota system for government jobs, which heavily favoured descendants of freedom fighters, was a major trigger for the protests. This system was seen as unfair by many students, especially given the high unemployment rates among the youth in Bangladesh.
The government’s harsh response to peaceful protests, including the use of force and extrajudicial killings, further inflamed the situation. The death of student leader Abu Sayed, for instance, became a rallying point for the movement.
There was a significant lack of meaningful dialogue between the government and the protesters. Addressing the students’ concerns through constructive engagement and reforms might have prevented the escalation.
The revolution was not just about the quota system but also about broader issues such as corruption, lack of transparency, and economic inequality. Addressing these systemic issues proactively could have mitigated the unrest. A government that was seen as being increasingly autocratic and out of touch with the ground realities, added fuel to the fire.
Also read: Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami can’t go far with anti-India rhetoric. It must address its 1971 role
Lessons for the future
While the immediate triggers of the revolution might have been addressed through better governance and dialogue, deep-seated issues require comprehensive reforms. The current dispensation will have to address these on priority to prevent the resurgence of protests, which was a manifestation of long-standing frustrations that had reached a tipping point.
Nevertheless, the future of the student revolution in Bangladesh looks promising, with potential for significant political and social reforms, quite like the student-led protests in Poland (1980). In both the Bangladesh and Poland student protests, universities and hostels became centres of intense student activity and planning. Their respective governments also responded with heavy-handed tactics, causing a large number of casualties, further exacerbating the situation.
In Bangladesh, the path ahead will require careful navigation and continued efforts to address the underlying issues that sparked the protests. Already, the protest has brought significant changes that may well shape the country’s future.
An interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been established, and includes student leaders in senior positions. This government is working toward stabilising the country and addressing the demands of the protesters. Fresh clashes, however, show the situation remains volatile.
The student protesters are considering forming a new political party to sustain their movement and ensure lasting political change, moving beyond the ‘Battle of the Begums’. This shift reflects a transition from protest to active political engagement.
While the interim government faces challenges, such as rebuilding the political system and ensuring stability, there is optimism about the future. Protection of religious minorities is one such challenge that will have to be addressed on priority. The involvement of young leaders brings fresh perspectives and a commitment to democratic values.
The revolution has garnered international attention, highlighting issues such as unemployment and the need for political reform.
Also read: Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy
Implications for India
Instability in any of our neighbouring countries, especially those with whom we share land borders, such as Pakistan or Myanmar, always affects our country. Bangladesh is no exception. The student revolution in Bangladesh has several implications for India:
Political and diplomatic relations: The upheaval has led to a downturn in India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, which were previously at an all-time high. India has adopted a balanced approach, engaging with the interim government while not forsaking ties with its long-standing allies. Although India has emphasised that the unrest is Bangladesh’s internal matter, it has also facilitated the safe return of thousands of Indian citizens, including students, amid the violence.
Economic impact: The protests have disrupted trade between India and Bangladesh, affecting business activities, especially those involving Indian traders and companies operating in Bangladesh.
Security concerns: There is concern about potential spillover effects of the protests into India, particularly in the Northeastern states. India needs to closely monitor the situation to prevent any cross-border implications, including the threat of a third front. Sustained engagement at the military-to-military level is the need of the hour, especially given that the Bangladesh Army has proven to be a stabilising force.
Humanitarian and social impact: The violence and instability have led to a steady stream of the Indian diaspora in Bangladesh, particularly students enrolled in medical programmes, returning to India. The evacuation of Indian citizens, as seen in Ukraine (2022) and Sudan (2023), underscores the government’s capacity to rise to the occasion. This situation also highlights the need for better safety measures for Indian nationals abroad.
While the student revolution in Bangladesh is primarily an internal matter, its ripple effects are being felt in India. The anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, including calls from members of the interim government to review all India-Bangladesh agreements and treaties, is not a good sign. This situation necessitates a balanced response from the Indian government, keeping channels of communication open with all stakeholders.
General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM SM VSM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)
Finally, someone from India who has got clout, is trying to make sense of the prevailing situation in Bangladesh and how it can impact India’s relationship with Bangladesh in coming days and beyond. India needs to accept the new reality and try building bridges with the current administration who represents the people of Bangladesh.
If power goes out of students then Bangladesh have dark future and if power reaming in hand of students we are not certain about future of Bangladesh.
Both way a loss for india.
EMI need to visit Bangladesh and make situations like it was in Hasina era.