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Assad ouster challenges India’s balancing act policy. Delhi’s best hope isn’t in office yet

The removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a serious setback to both Moscow and Tehran. Russia’s Eurasian dream and Iran’s grand strategy to create a 'Shia Crescent' have been thwarted.

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The decade-old agenda of successive occupants of the White House to bring about regime change in Syria by ousting President Bashar al-Assad has finally been achieved at a time when no one is effectively in command in the White House. The outgoing president Joe Biden, eased out of the presidential race due to age and health-related issues, is a ‘lame duck,’ while the president-elect, Donald Trump, has not yet officially assumed office. So, who is managing the Syrian front? Is it the ‘deep state’ that Trump vows to dismantle?

The fall of Assad’s government in Syria was a foregone conclusion, as it was a top priority on the US deep state’s agenda. The jury is still out on the exact nature and location of this ‘deep state’, which is like a ghost. It is said to exist in your backyard if you can prove it, or elsewhere if you cannot. Successive White House administrations have stared at the infamous “kill list” supposedly handed out by this shadowy entity and approved its directives. Whether the deposed Syrian president’s name was on that list remains a question for future historians, but there is little doubt that the US wanted him to go, wherever. Now, he is gone.

For years, the US viewed Assad’s Syria as a vital asset in Russia’s broader geopolitical strategy. Despite the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of China as a contender to American authority, Putin’s Russia has never given up its vision of a greater Eurasia. If not geographic ownership, Russia counted on Syria to serve as a significant pawn in the Middle East and West Asia. For the US, Assad’s regime was an impediment to countering the Russian agenda. Hence, the Syrian leader’s rule had to end—and it has ended now.

Remember ‘good and bad’ Taliban?

Ironically, Assad has been ousted by a coalition of radical Islamic organisations led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which the US has designated as Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Another strange parallel is the US support for HTS and its proxies on the pretext of helping “good HTS” factions over “bad HTS” linked to ISIS, much like the distinction once drawn between “good Taliban” and “bad Taliban”.

As in Afghanistan before the Taliban’s takeover, Damascus—now leaderless—is under the control of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) coalition, along with southern Syria-based armed groups, including fighters from Alawite townships who previously served as personal security for Assad. Reports suggest HTS has gained support from Alawites (who would surrender their weapons to HTS), potentially reducing the likelihood of revenge killings of former Assad loyalists. However, maintaining harmony in a strife-torn nation with its diverse religious and ethnic groups—Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Druze, and others account for 30 percent of the Syrian population—will be a litmus test for the rebels, who currently seem more focused on consolidating their hold over Damascus.

It is anybody’s guess what neighbouring countries—Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon—bordering this unstable region governed by an illegitimate rebel mercenary group will do to aggrandise their respective geography and seek their pound of flesh from the US. Turkey, for instance, had already carved out the Euphrates Shield area as far back as 2016, integrating it administratively with its provinces of Gaziantep and Kilis under military oversight. Meanwhile, Israel has conducted massive airstrikes along Syria’s Mediterranean Coast, targeting the naval fleet in Latakia and rebel war capabilities in Damascus.

Assad’s ouster is no doubt a serious setback to both Moscow and Tehran, which were backing the Assad regime to the hilt. Russia’s Eurasian dream and Iran’s grand strategy to create a “Shia Crescent”—linking Tehran to Beirut through Baghdad and Damascus to counter Sunni Islamist factions—appear to have been thwarted.

The implications of turmoil in Syria

This development will certainly have a ripple effect on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With Trump weeks away from assuming the presidency, the geopolitical dynamics of the region are all set to change, with serious implications for Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and India. While energy trade may find new routes through Syria, an intensified Cold War could lead to headwinds in global trade, supply chains, and value chains.

For India, this adds yet another challenge in balancing relationships between the US and Russia, and between Israel and Iran. Economically, much is at stake, including energy trade with Russia, infrastructure in Chabahar, and defence ties with Tel Aviv. At this juncture, New Delhi has little choice but to keep an eye on the unfolding situation as Trump begins his presidency.

Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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1 COMMENT

  1. His fall is setback for Iran mostly. Russia had already reduced support and has made a deal with HTS to keep its bases.

    India should be worried. Assad supported India’s stance on Kashmir. Those HTS militants will be looking for new places to fight and plunder and Kashmir would be the easiest non middle eastern target.

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