This is turning out to be a most unusual presidential election for the United States, with former President Donald Trump clearly on path to becoming the Republican Party nominee for the third straight time. While it is very early to predict the outcome of this election, there is little doubt that it will be close.
Losing presidential candidates from the two major parties usually fade into historical footnotes. While there have been cases where such candidates try again, at least in recent American political history, no sitting president who has lost the election has been renominated.
But Trump could prove to be an exception. Republican Party candidate Nikki Haley, former US Ambassador to the United Nations and Governor of South Carolina, is his sole contender. Haley, however, lost the nomination contest in both Iowa and New Hampshire and is on track to lose even her home state of South Carolina, which will hold its nomination exercise in the last week of February. How long she’ll continue in the race, if it can even be called that, is unclear, but she appears to have sufficient funding to continue for a while, with the conservative Koch network being a major supporter.
While other prominent Republican challengers like Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, has dropped out and endorsed Trump, Haley has stepped up her attacks on the former president. This is a change because, like other Trump challengers, Haley had once been reluctant to target Trump directly.
Haley unlikely to beat Trump
Haley’s end game is unclear since she is highly unlikely to be able to defeat Trump. Currently, having tasted defeat in both Iowa and New Hampshire, she is running about 30 points behind Trump in polling averages in South Carolina, the next primary. Much of the South Carolina Republican Party has endorsed Trump, though Haley is a former governor. But it is also indicative of a key issue in the 2024 election cycle: Trump’s personality but also his stranglehold over Republican voters.
In 2016, Trump boasted that his supporters were so loyal that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose voters. Eight years later, much to the frustration of his opponents across the American political spectrum, this blind loyalty continues to define a majority of Republican voters. Thus, Trump’s opponents have had to fight him without criticising him, despite his sketchy personal, moral and ethical values, his role in trying to overthrow the 2020 election, his mounting legal troubles, and his sheer crassness, lest they lose these voters.
Haley only has a chance if some health issue undermines Trump’s candidacy – he is, after all, 77 years old. But this is a thin reed on which to hang a primary candidacy, and sooner than later, she is also likely to bow out.
Also read: US is having a crisis of commitment. India must ask what it means for Indo-Pacific stability
Democrats reluctantly support Biden
On the Democratic side, despite significant unhappiness with incumbent US President Joe Biden’s performance, the party appears to be sticking with him. There were some early efforts last year to get Biden to step down, but at this stage, there is little likelihood of that happening. Unlike the deep loyalty of core Trump voters, there is, at best, a reluctant acceptance of Biden among even his supporters.
Beyond the two parties, voters identifying themselves as independents rather than as Democrats or Republicans will be the key deciding factor. Self-identified Democrats have dropped to a record low of 27 per cent, matching self-identified Republicans, while independents now account for 43 per cent of American voters, according to recent opinion polls. Independents, thus, are a key target of both parties, though Republicans appear to have a slight edge. This could change as the general election campaign ramps up in the coming months.
Part of the problem that Biden faces is that factions within the Democratic Party are at war, and even the prospect of a second Trump presidency is not yet uniting them. On issues such as illegal immigration, control of the southern border and the war in Gaza, the progressive wing of the Democrats is deeply disappointed with Biden. It is possible that they’ll go back to supporting him as the prospect of Trump’s election win inches closer later in the year. But it marks one more headache for the Biden campaign.
Another issue is the US economy, which shows good numbers in both growth and job creation but has not translated into support for Biden. It is possible that his perception as an economic manager will change over time. It would, actually, be very good news for Biden’s campaign if positive sentiments about economic well-being begin to shift later in the year, closer to the polls and in line with these stellar growth numbers.
Also read: India dithered for years after nuclear deal. It’s Xi who brought US this close to Delhi
A referendum on Trump
The other factor that is in Biden’s favour is that this election is increasingly becoming a referendum on Trump. Though the various prosecutions of the former president appear to have boosted his support, he is also a deeply divisive figure, including with traditional Republicans. Trump is still leading slightly in the opinion polls. This includes not only the national polls but also key ‘battleground’ states. This is important because the US presidential election is decided state by state rather than by the national popular vote. In the key battleground states that will likely decide the election, Biden is leading only in Pennsylvania, while Trump is leading in Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan, according to the latest poll averages.
However, even in the Iowa and New Hampshire victories, there were warning signs for Trump. A good number of independents and even Republicans who voted for Haley told pollsters that they would rather vote for Biden than Trump in the general election in November. Thus, though Trump is likely to coast easily to nomination by the Republican Party, it becomes much more difficult in the general election, as independents and some Republicans will vote against him.
This presidential election is also somewhat peculiar in that, with candidates from the two parties already set, the poll campaign will be much longer than usual. Given Trump’s propensity for controversy, his general attitude, language, and continuing court cases, more of the independents are likely to vote for Biden simply because they do not want another Trump presidency. Whatever their lack of enthusiasm for Biden, which most Democrats also share, their dislike for Trump and fear of another chaotic presidency could make them swing to Biden. That is why the focus on Trump and an election that is a referendum on him is likely to benefit Biden.
The author is a professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. He tweets @RRajagopalanJNU. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)