Well into 2025 now, we examine which ‘ism’ has lost out, and which one is winning. If you look at the western world, Leftism is mostly finished for now. Not just political but also the social Left. Britain is an exception though, given the challenge Keir Starmer faces and amid attacks from Elon Musk-supported hard Right, the Labour also looks like an endangered species.
The Right, at the same time, isn’t in great shape either. At least, the political Right that we’ve been familiar with. In the US, the Republicans have fallen to a Trumpian insurgency. If one tracks Trump’s utterances and tweets lately, most people he abuses are Republicans: “birdbrain” Nikki Haley, “Dumb as a Rock” John Bolton, “disloyal warmonger” Dick Cheney and his “psycho” daughter Liz, Charles Koch’s “Americans for no Prosperity”, Mitt Romney, his former Cabinet officers such as Jim Mattis, Mark Esper (Trump spells Yesper) and so on—all of whom he accuses of suffering from TDS, or Trump Derangement Syndrome.
You don’t see him throwing such abuse at the old Left. That’s because in this insurgent view, the old Right is even more immoral than the Democrats. Trump’s MAGA Republicans are as ideologically distant from the traditional GOP as from the Democratic Left.
Ruchir Sharma, in his latest Financial Times column, underlines that last year, 85 percent of the incumbents lost elections in developed countries that went to the polls. In all of these, I would add, the new ideology that moved in wasn’t any of the old ‘isms’ as we know them. This is true of France and Italy as well. Odds are, the same new reality will play out in Germany too. As the Left faces massive rejection, the Right has been redefined and the idea of the Centre-Right is in deep distress.
If all ‘isms’ taught to us till now—Leftism, Rightism and Centrism—are dying or going into deep coma, what is winning? What is replacing them? This brings back to me a popular Sona Mohapatra song from some years back: “ik naye kisam ka ism” (a new kind of ism). Of course, lyricist Ram Sampath’s words tugged at our heartstrings to junk all bad divisive ‘isms’ and discover a new one that will unite our ‘jisms’ (beings).
That’s too romantic for politics. At the same time, there cannot be a vacuum of ideas in democracies. Fact is, if Sona Mohapatra sang for a new kind of “ism”, one has indeed risen now. It is called populism.
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Across the world, the Left, Right and the Centre are being devastated by populism. Of course, it is customised for different nations, electorates and societies. In the developed world, it includes mass deportations of immigrants, fear of alien cultures and faiths (mostly Islam) that do not assimilate, hyper-nationalism, trade-protectionism and just that search for that pinnacle of glory in your history or mythology.
Trump, Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen are among the most successful populists. It would be an error to call them Right-wing. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is hoping to get there too. Who fears it the most? It isn’t the Labour. They have a comfortable majority. The biggest threat is faced by the British conservatives. Could Reform UK do to them what Trump has done to the Republican Party in the US? That’s the case Elon Musk is on.
The beauty, charm and success of populism lies in its ease of use, in how little it demands from your head or heart, wisdom or conscience. It is unencumbered by morality, carries no weight of history and isn’t confused by facts.
At one level, it can be purely transactional, and we are seeing it play out in India. ‘I will give you, or your sister or mother so much cash, and you vote for me’. Or, ‘you can travel free in the buses’, now somebody says in the Metro, ‘so many units of free power’, ‘free water’ and so on.
A little over a year ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was ridiculing this as ‘revris’ (wasteful giveaways) which distracted from the primary responsibility of elected leaders: governance. He was so correct and wise to take that position. He got off that kerb, however, sooner than you would utter the word Karnataka.
There’s been a relentless rollback since then. If anything, the Bharatiya Janata Party is now leading the rest in promising more and more giveaways. They tasted success in Maharashtra. In Delhi now, they are offering women voters even more than the Aam Aadmi Party. This has gone to the extent that the BJP, India’s most successful party and one with the best-defined ideology among the major contenders, is now counting more on what it can give away than even Hindutva or Hindutva-based nationalism.
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We told you populism is unencumbered by old ideologies. Check out how forces of the Left or Centre-Left, Congress most prominently, started transactional politics. An ideology-free party like the AAP probably showed the way. Now, the BJP and its partners are on the same bandwagon. The old “isms” divided them, but now they are all united by populism. The burden for this is not on Rahul Gandhi, but the ‘Mohabbat ki dukaan’ (a mart of love) he promised us has now become a giant bazaar or revris.
Broad-spectrum populism is also anchored in emotional factors: religion, nationalism, culture, nostalgia, a belief that at some point in the past, we were greater than we’ve been lately. There is no definition of that “lately”.
That’s why people will vote to Make America Great Again. Hasn’t it been great since the Cold War was won? Or the reason enough people will buy into the idea of making India ‘sone ki chidiya’ (the golden bird) again. It’s the same thing. Populism promises what you’ve never seen before but which, once you imagine, makes you feel good.
These are then distilled further in sharply defined issues: immigration, irredentism, gender and race. Or let’s drop euphemisms, notions of racial purity.
Immigration is a huge issue in the developed world. In India, that’s the button CAA is pushing and Rohingyas, whose total number is estimated at no more than 40-50,000, becomes such an issue. How irredentism plays out, see in Trump wanting to forename the Gulf of Mexico, taking back Panama Canal and acquiring Greenland.
For India, it’s the promise of taking back Aksai Chin and PoK and while it isn’t talked about much these days, restoring the real glory of Akhand Bharat. Gender and race do not play out the same way in India as in the West and thank God for that. India’s safety valve is the diversity built into its essential design and the multiplicity of vote banks where harping on one race/identity issue could alienate three others.
Nevertheless, the direction in India is populism too. In 2014, Narendra Modi came to power on the promise of minimum government/maximum governance. We’ve seen the size of the government grow bigger. The promise of privatisation is so completely forgotten (Air India apart), that now it is said with competitive pride that PSUs have never done better than under this government. As I write this, I see breathless celebration over the fact that the Centre is investing another Rs 11,440 crore in the PSU steel plant at Vizag, on the divestment list for years. What is populism if not throwing good money after bad if it pleases some voters.
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Shekhar Gupta, as ever, sees reality in a way that supporters of empty ideology do not.
The “ism” that Shekhar Gupta has perfected is “Bakwas-ism”. He knows why Trump is against the Republicans like Haley, Cheney etc. but acknowledging that will mean he has to talk of the political capture that the old establishment (aka deep state) has across both parties and how that has undermined genuine democracy in the US.
In a world where lots of analyses are available, bad analysis just stands out immediately. Anyone who’s followed the US for a while (e.g worked with Americans daily as part of their jobs), knows that the undercurrent has been there since the last 10 years.
I am not sure if Mr. Gupta realizes that each such column reduces his stature. For a change, go to the ground again and ask genuine questions, don’t judge and don’t try and make people give the answers you like, but I understand that’s asking for too much from an ideologue.
Trump is a frugal populist, he is planning to cut down govt sepnding on useless unproductive stuff while Modi is throwing money to win votes as if he owns the entire tax of the country.
Trump is a certified loose character. Has lived a life of debauchery and fraud. Also, is a convicted felon. Unfortunately, he has been elected as the US President and therefore, the world has to deal with him.
To compare him with Modi or Meloni or anyone else is to insult them. These people are political leaders. But Trump is an unscrupulous businessman with a shady past.
Shekhar Gupta is too clever and cheeky.
Clubbing Modi with Trump is such non-sense.
Mr. Shekhar Gupta is intelligent and wise enough to know that Modi is totally different from the likes of Trump, Le-Pen, etc. and yet he cleverly clubbed them together. Just to throw shade at him. Mr. Gupta’s intense dislike, bordering on hatred, for Modi comes through in such articles.
Trump is a convicted felon who has led an immoral, unethical and unprincipled life all along. Everything about him stinks.
Only Mr. Gupta can equate Trump with Modi.
That, quite unfortunately, has been the hallmark of his “un-hyphenated journalism”.
Unfortunately, I have a head and heart, conscience, some wisdom must have been picked up along the course of life, so can never love the populists. ( That one sentence was worth the column ).