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IIM study predicts 1.5 lakh Covid-19 cases by May first week as ‘result of Tablighi event’

IIM-Rohtak research team uses mathematical models to conclude coronavirus cases have increased by nearly 3 times in India after Tablighi Jamaat event in March.

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New Delhi: The Indian Institute of Management (IIM) in Rohtak has predicted, using mathematical models, that the Tablighi Jamaat congregation held at its headquarters in Delhi from 13-15 March will increase coronavirus cases “exponentially” — with Delhi and Mumbai to emerge as the most vulnerable locations.

“We predict… that the number of Covid-19 cases will increase exponentially in India to approximately 13,000 cases by 15 April 2020 and to more than 1,50,000 cases by the first week of May 2020,” said a report prepared by a research team at IIM-Rohtak.

“This rapid increase in cases is a result of the Tablighi Jamaat event and we propose that any such event in the future will be severely detrimental for the health of the people and may pose a serious threat to the growth and well-being of the nation,” the report stated.

The research team, led by IIM Director Dheeraj Sharma, had professors Dr Amol Singh and Dr Abhay Pant and a research scholar as members.

“This study takes into account the fact that the lockdown would be removed on April 14 2020,” Sharma told ThePrint.

“The government should play a proactive role to condemn any such congregation and should mandatorily lock down such places to avoid proliferation of Covid-19 cases,” the report said.

The team analysed data using a mathematical forecasting model involving two exponential functions. Such models have been used recently to predict disease spread in a given region.

“Using the data from covid19india.org website and employing a regression model, it was proffered that the coronavirus cases have multiplied approximately three times post the Tablighi Jamaat event,” said the report, which was accessed by this author. 

“The detailed forecast post the Tablighi Jamaat event of Covid-19 cases across India are presented in Table 1 below… The predicted cases have been compared with the actual cases and the analysis showed approx. 93% accuracy on an average for all the data.”

The report added, “Following a model of coronavirus case estimation…, some empirical analysis was done to forecast coronavirus cases for India considering the rapid growth of cases pan India.” 

It said, “The estimation of predicted coronavirus cases in the future was done taking into consideration reproduction number and serial interval in our model. This model is estimated in the scenario of uncontrolled spread without the effectiveness of any control measures.” 


Also read: Call it a mistake, not conspiracy against India, say Muslim scholars on Tablighi Jamaat event


State-wise comparison

The report has also done a state-wise comparison of coronavirus cases. 

“… a hotspot state-wise comparison of Covid-19 cases has also been done and presented from Table 3 to Table 8… The analysis indicates that there is a multiplier effect of Tablighi Jamaat event on number of cases for the hotspot states and the multiplier range is between 2 and 4 times that of pre-Tablighi Jamaat event. It can be clearly seen from the data in hotspot states that the Tablighi Jamaat event has increased the number of cases drastically,” said the report.

The “significance” of the event can be seen from Table 3 below that the cases have increased nearly four times in Delhi since the event. It is expected that the cases will increase further, said the report. 

In the remaining states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan, cases have increased nearly two to three times after the Tablighi Jamaat event.

It is evident from the analysis that Delhi and Mumbai are the most vulnerable locations out of all the hotspot locations. The probability of being affected through Covid-19 viral infection is highest in these locations.

The report further stated: “The prediction accuracy is nearly 93% when we compared actual cases with the predicted cases on an average.”

An analysis (Table 8) has also been done for Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, which is the worst-affected state at present.

Data source for all eight tables: IIM report

(This report has been updated to include IIM Rohtak Director Dheeraj Sharma’s comment.) 

The writer is CEO of Indraprastha Vishwa Samvad Kendra, an RSS affiliate, and author of two books on the RSS.


Also read: Tamil Nadu is worst-hit by Tablighi Jamaat event, but also seeing men admit participation


 

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80 COMMENTS

  1. There seems to be hardly any significance of this research in the Indian context. Even after putting all restrictions under lockdown, we had extra ordinary relaxations like migrant trains, students returning from Kota and buses coming from Nanded. The research had a very narrow approach in computing the data that was available to. Them. There were no relative factors considered, no variable components included in the study. Prof Amol and Prof Abhay being from the similar domain have done quiet elementary research on the topic. I hope more researchers will be working on more advanced analysis that will help us analyse and understand the future prospects post covid 19 world.

  2. There have been hundreds and thousands of theories coming from all corners of the world, big universities and researchers. Every one is using various models based on factors that are relevant and irrelevant at different regions. But there is no asurity which theory will apply in the given scenario. We have already pass the time frame as mentioned in the study and no. of cases as per the time frame mentioned are still increasing though the exponential factor is low. Does this mean that lockdown is the only option available for implementation and execution or are there any other measures like followed by China to bring back the cycle of economy and livelyhood. There are lots of if s and buts. It would be great if we get to see more research coming from researchers of IIM Rohtak based on the factors and statistics changing with time, based on the situation being getting worse in some parts of the country and finding improvements in others. I would be more interested to see such research work with more suggestions and otpions available for government to implement and help all sections of society and sectors of industry benefit from this

  3. What kind of research is this. Dr. Abhay Pant is believed to be from the area of economatrics and there is hardly any variable factor analysis done in the entire research. It’s just another random mathematical model done and results published which have no standing from the critical research prespective. Being an Institute of national importance, we expect more vital research coming that will help government and local administration take cognigence and take suitable actions that will restrain spread of virus and get the economy back on its actual track. We just can’t be sitting idle with the hope that everything will be alright one fine day when the virus will disappear and economy will flourish. Economic reforms, suitable and right decisions and containing the spread of virus is the key for which all researchers must help establishements function.

  4. We are already in Lockdown 3.0 and this research still not find any understanding of factors apart from just the mathematical calculations. India and for that matter the community being talked about has controlled the community spread of the virus even today. Infact, the number of cases increased in India have been due to local negligence, we have incidents like one from Nanded that became a spreader in Punjab, migrants coming from various parts of the country, vegetable vendors, delivery ones, and what not. Still I would say we have very responsible citizens of India that have maintained awareness and understanding of the situation really well. Even media has been left with no mudda of communal, social or political eruptions during this entire period of lockdown. and then we find a research like this where the inputs puts entire blame on one community. Indian Population had emerged more responsible and concerned than never before. We must keep this going with the same spirit and shall find results unbelievable for the world to see.

  5. Every so called “expert” is trying to come up with a model predicting numbers and end an trajectory just to make a point (and obviously a publication). But the need of the hour is NOT those meaningless statements (when you obviously do not know the correct input/initial conditions to which these results are invariably sensitive to), but given limited resources we have at hand, the risk involved in relaxing the restrictions in the GREEN zones, by consolidating actual test results performed on a representative random sample (irrespective of the original testing criteria). I also seriously doubt even if it comes from a (credible?) statistician, that one can link the current course to just one event (when there is a greater chance of sampling bias, and unaccounted infections are involved).

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