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Shift in demography is hitting Indian classrooms. School enrolment has fallen to 7-yr low

Govt report shows biggest fall of 34 lakh enrolments in class 1 to 5 category; overall drop across categories is 11 lakh. Govt officials attribute it to falling birth rate. 

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New Delhi: Overall school enrolment in India has been reported at a seven-year low of 24.68 crore in 2024–25, which means a drop of 11 lakh compared to the previous year, and signaling a shift in the country’s demography, a government report revealed Thursday. Significantly, the report also shows a decline of 34 lakh enrolments in the class 1 to 5 segment.

The Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) data, released by the Union Ministry of Education for the academic year 2024–25, highlighted that a total of 24.68 crore students were enrolled in the school system, which included government, government-aided, private, and other schools. The enrollment figures have been declining consistently over the years—in 2023-24, the number of students enrolled in schools was 24.8 crore, down from the figure of 25.18 crore in 2022-23.

Overall enrollment has been constantly declining from 2021-22 onwards.

The report further highlighted that enrolment at the primary level (classes 1 to 5 catering to students in age group of 6-10) declined from 10.78 crore in 2023–24 to 10.44 crore in 2024–25, marking a drop of approximately 34 lakh students.

Although, there is increase in enrolment at pre-primary (nursery and Kindergarten), upper primary (classes 6-8), secondary (9-10) and higher secondary (11-12).

Senior government officials attributed the decline in overall enrollment primarily to falling birth rates, except in a few states. “That’s why fewer children are entering the lower classes,” said a senior government official.

Though the decline in total fertility rate in India has been seen in the past few years, this is the first time that its impact is reflected on school enrollment figures.

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) declined to 1.91 per woman by 2021, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 per woman.

TFR is the average number of children born to a woman in her childbearing years, while replacement level is the level of fertility at which a population replaces itself.

The government official added that all their current calculations are based on the 2011 Census. “For instance, when calculating the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER), we use the number of children in a specific age group—and for that, we rely on the 2011 Census data. As a result, the denominator becomes inflated in the current projections. Once we have updated data from the new Census in 2026, many of these figures are likely to change,” the official said.

In 2022, NCERT released a study titled “Projection and Trends of School Enrolments by 2025”, which predicted a decline in school enrolment at all levels by 2025, due to a decreasing population in the 6–16 age group.

Last July, at the ninth governing council meeting of federal think tank Niti Aayog, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who chaired the governing council meeting, had encouraged states to initiate demographic management plans to address issues of population ageing in future. It was the first time that states and the Centre have spoken about the need for  a demographic management plan in a formal forum like the Niti Aayog.

In July this year, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu had said his government would soon launch a policy to encourage people to have more children, citing concerns that South India’s low birth rate could affect its representation in Parliament.

According to the report, enrolment in government schools decreased from 12.75 crore to 12.16 crore, marking a decline of approximately 59 lakh students. In contrast, private school enrolment increased from 9 crore to 9.59 crore, reflecting a rise of about 59.80 lakh students.


Also read: Parents’ spend on school education highest in Haryana & Manipur, lowest in Bihar—latest govt survey


Improved GER; reduced dropout rates

Besides the decline in enrollment numbers, the UDISE+ data also highlighted how in the academic year 2024–25 there has been a notable reduction in dropout rates across the Preparatory (Classes 3–5), Middle (Classes 6–8), and Secondary (Classes 9–10) levels, as compared to the previous two years—2022–23 and 2023–24.

So, while there is a reduction in the numbers joining, those who are already in school are not dropping out as much as earlier years.

At the preparatory stage, the rate declined from 3.7% to 2.3% between 2023-24 and 2024-25, at the Middle stage from 5.2% to 3.5%, and at the Secondary stage from 10.9% to 8.2% as compared to the previous year.

“This downward trend highlights improved student retention and reflects the success of initiatives aimed at keeping children engaged in their education. The consistent decrease across all levels suggests that schools are becoming more supportive and responsive to students’ needs, helping reduce early departures from the system,” the ministry said in a statement.

The survey data also highlighted that the academic year 2024–25 saw a steady improvement in the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) and student retention across all school levels.

The GER, which measures the percentage of the school-age population enrolled at a specific education level, at the Middle level rose from 89.5% to 90.3%, while at the Secondary level, it increased from 66.5% to 68.5%, indicating improved access and participation in higher grades.

Similarly, the retention rates also strengthened notably compared to the previous year—from 98.0% to 98.9% at the Foundational level, 85.4% to 92.4% at the Preparatory level, 78.0% to 82.8% at the Middle level, and 45.6% to 47.2% at the Secondary level.

“A major factor contributing to this rise, particularly at the Secondary level, is the expansion in the number of schools offering secondary education. These trends reflect the positive impact of targeted interventions and signal meaningful progress toward broader educational inclusion and retention,” the report stated.

Enrolment down in 4 southern states

State-wise data shows increased enrolment in 2 states. Enrolment in Uttar Pradesh increased to 4.28 crore from 4.17 crore in 2023–24, while Assam saw a rise from 69.23 lakh to 70.42 lakh in 2024–25.

Overall enrolment in Bihar dropped to 2.11 crore from 2.13 crore in 2023–24, a decline of approximately 2.15 lakh students.

In West Bengal, enrolment fell to 1.71 crore from 1.80 crore, a drop of about 93,014 (or 0.93 lakh). In Rajasthan, enrolment decreased to 1.64 crore from 1.68 crore, marking a decline of roughly 42,878 (or 0.43 lakh). Maharashtra also reported a decline in enrolment, dropping to 2.13 crore from 2.14 crore, a decrease of approximately 1.03 lakh students.

Enrolment dropped in four southern states: Tamil Nadu from 1.30 crore to 1.25 crore (a decline of about 47,883 or 0.48 lakh); Kerala from 62.82 lakh to 61.64 lakh (down approximately 1.18 lakh); Andhra Pradesh from 87.42 lakh to 84.55 lakh (a decrease of around 2.89 lakh); and Karnataka from 1.19 crore to 1.18 crore (falling by about 14,052 or 0.14 lakh).

(Edited by Viny Mishra)


Also read: Chandigarh tops, Meghalaya at bottom of Centre’s school education performance grading index


 

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