New Delhi, Sep 22 (PTI) Countries are planning to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a new report warned on Monday.
The Production Gap Report 2025 said governments’ production plans for coal, oil and gas are 120 per cent above levels aligned with the 1.5 degree Celsius pathway and 77 per cent higher than those consistent with a 2 degree rise.
The Paris Agreement, under which countries committed to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees and hold it to well below 2 degrees, completes 10 years in 2025.
At COP28 in Dubai, governments agreed to a call for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”.
Instead of winding down fossil fuels, governments are now collectively planning even higher levels of coal production until 2035, gas production until 2050 and a continued rise in oil output to mid-century, the report by Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Climate Analytics showed.
“This collective failure means fossil fuel production will need to fall even more steeply in the coming decades to compensate for lost time,” the report said.
The analysis, covering 20 major producers including India, the US, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Australia, showed that 17 of them still plan to increase output of at least one fossil fuel by 2030. Eleven expect higher production of coal, oil or gas than they did just two years ago.
The report estimated that by 2030, coal production will be 500 per cent higher than levels consistent with a 1.5 degree pathway, oil 31 per cent higher and gas 92 per cent higher.
This comes despite scientific consensus that coal use must be nearly phased out by 2040 and oil and gas production cut by three-quarters by 2050 to keep global goals within reach.
The warning echoes findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has said global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and fall by 43 per cent by 2030 to avoid worsening of climate change.
A study in Nature, a leading multidisciplinary science journal, earlier this year estimated that 60 per cent of global oil and gas reserves and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to stay within 1.5 degrees.
The Production Gap Report said fossil fuel lock-in is worsening because of massive investments in new infrastructure, making future cuts harder and more expensive. The fiscal cost of subsidies also remains near record highs, with governments continuing to support production through tax incentives, public investments and opening up new exploration blocks.
“While countries at last year’s COP28 summit in Dubai agreed to keep 1.5 degrees within reach”, the report noted that most governments have failed to match that pledge with concrete production cuts.
The International Court of Justice recently reaffirmed that 1.5 degrees is the primary temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, adding legal weight to calls for urgent reductions.
The report did highlight some positive steps. Germany has advanced its coal phase-out timeline, Brazil has launched an energy transition acceleration programme, and China reached its 2030 renewable energy target six years early. Colombia has adopted a Just Energy Transition roadmap.
But the report warned these efforts are overshadowed by the expansion plans of the world’s biggest producers.
The United States, after revoking federal net-zero orders this year, is now projected to significantly raise output of oil, gas and coal.
India, with a 2070 net-zero target, is planning higher coal production in the near term. Russia, Saudi Arabia and China are also among those expected to expand production.
As governments prepare to submit their next round of climate pledges under the Paris Agreement this year, the report called on them to explicitly integrate plans to reduce fossil fuel production into their national strategies and to strengthen global cooperation for a just transition. PTI GVS RHL
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