New Delhi: For the first time since January this year, when India was combating the Omicron wave, the effective reproduction rate (R) for Covid in the country has gone over 1, indicating that infections are expected to rise in the coming days.
For both Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, the R value – an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading – has increased to 2.12. Delhi’s R was at 0.7 around 28 March while for Uttar Pradesh, it was at 0.66 last month.
Haryana has also recorded R over 1, with the value increasing from 0.72 to 1.70 within a month’s time.
Delhi, along with adjoining NCR regions of Faridabad, Gurugram, Ghaziabad, Noida and has witnessed a sudden rise in Covid cases. With the number of daily tests falling to less than 15,000, the test positivity rate has also been rapidly rising, indicating the need to expand testing.
Meanwhile, DDMA has once again made wearing masks in public mandatory in Delhi, imposing a fine of Rs 500 for violating the mandate.
India’s overall rise in R from 0.77 in March to 1.07 this month is primarily driven by the rise in cases in Delhi, UP and Haryana. However, most major metro cities are currently witnessing a small surge in cases.
Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, who has been tracking R for India since the beginning of the pandemic told ThePrint that almost all the major cities are showing R over 1.
In Mumbai, R rose from 0.98 last month to 1.13. Chennai’s R also increased to 1.18 from 0.63. Kolkata’s effective reproduction rate for Covid could not be estimated with the current data.
Bengaluru’s R value is currently at 1.04, an increase from 0.9 in March. Rising cases in the city have also driven up the overall R for Karnataka from 0.83 last month to 1.04 in April.
Despite rising R in several states, the value has stayed under 1 in Kerala, Mizoram and Maharashtra. For active cases to continually fall, R should remain below one.
In a span of one month, Maharashtra’s R has remained unchanged at 0.88 despite the spike seen in capital Mumbai. The R value of Kerala decreased from 0.83 last month to 0.72 in April. In Mizoram, although the R is under 1, it has increased from 0.67 to 0.83.
(edited by Monami Gogoi)
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