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India gets relief as R falls below 1 again, Kerala shows declining trend first time in a month

Himachal Pradesh and J&K have India's highest R values. While the state is at 1.38, the union territory is at 1.13.

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New Delhi: After a brief rise last week to over 1, the effective reproduction number (R) for Covid in India — an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading — has dipped once again, allaying fears that the third Covid-19 wave was already underway.

“After the scare at the beginning of month when R for India went above 1 for the first time after early May, things seem to have improved somewhat,” Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai who has been tracking R for India since the beginning of the pandemic, told ThePrint.

He added that the simultaneous rise in R across various states that drove India’s overall R to more than 1 last week seems to have petered out.

Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

However, Himachal Pradesh continues to have a very high R value of 1.38, although it has decreased compared to last week’s 1.43.

In Jammu and Kashmir, R increased to 1.13 from 0.74, which is the second highest among regions with the highest active cases.

Meanwhile, for the first time after a month Kerala’s R value decreased, although the value continues to be over 1. It is currently 1.09 as opposed to 1.18 last week. In Maharashtra, which has maintained R below 1 since May, is seeing a rise — going up to 0.92 this week from 0.84 last week.

States above 1, trend in NE region

Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

Tamil Nadu and Nagaland are two other states where R is currently above 1. For Tamil Nadu, the R increased to 1.02 from 0.88 last week.

Nagaland’s R was close to 1 last week, but has since increased to 1.03.

Apart from Nagaland, all other states in the Northeast now have an R value below one. Over the past three weeks, these states had seen a simultaneous rise in R to over 1.

For Sikkim, the R reduced to 0.8 this week from last week’s 1.13. Similarly, Meghalaya dropped to 0.81 from 1.19. Manipur and Arunachal have R at 0.82 and 0.80 respectively.

Assam’s R is currently at 0.91, almost the same as last week.

Delhi’s R also reduced to 0.85 this week from 1.03 last week.


Also read: India logs 38,353 new Covid infections, active cases lowest in 140 days


Major cities

Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

Chennai and Kolkata are currently the only major cities where R is over 1. For both cities the value is 1.1.

For Mumbai, the R increased to 0.91 from 0.76 last week. In Pune, R was close to 1 last week, but has since decreased to 0.93.

Bengaluru, where R was slightly over one last week, is now at 0.97.

(Edited by Manasa Mohan)


Also read: Why India can’t figure out what a third wave of Covid will look like


 

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