New Delhi: After a brief rise last week to over 1, the effective reproduction number (R) for Covid in India — an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading — has dipped once again, allaying fears that the third Covid-19 wave was already underway.
“After the scare at the beginning of month when R for India went above 1 for the first time after early May, things seem to have improved somewhat,” Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai who has been tracking R for India since the beginning of the pandemic, told ThePrint.
He added that the simultaneous rise in R across various states that drove India’s overall R to more than 1 last week seems to have petered out.
However, Himachal Pradesh continues to have a very high R value of 1.38, although it has decreased compared to last week’s 1.43.
In Jammu and Kashmir, R increased to 1.13 from 0.74, which is the second highest among regions with the highest active cases.
Meanwhile, for the first time after a month Kerala’s R value decreased, although the value continues to be over 1. It is currently 1.09 as opposed to 1.18 last week. In Maharashtra, which has maintained R below 1 since May, is seeing a rise — going up to 0.92 this week from 0.84 last week.
States above 1, trend in NE region
Tamil Nadu and Nagaland are two other states where R is currently above 1. For Tamil Nadu, the R increased to 1.02 from 0.88 last week.
Nagaland’s R was close to 1 last week, but has since increased to 1.03.
Apart from Nagaland, all other states in the Northeast now have an R value below one. Over the past three weeks, these states had seen a simultaneous rise in R to over 1.
For Sikkim, the R reduced to 0.8 this week from last week’s 1.13. Similarly, Meghalaya dropped to 0.81 from 1.19. Manipur and Arunachal have R at 0.82 and 0.80 respectively.
Assam’s R is currently at 0.91, almost the same as last week.
Delhi’s R also reduced to 0.85 this week from 1.03 last week.
Chennai and Kolkata are currently the only major cities where R is over 1. For both cities the value is 1.1.
For Mumbai, the R increased to 0.91 from 0.76 last week. In Pune, R was close to 1 last week, but has since decreased to 0.93.
Bengaluru, where R was slightly over one last week, is now at 0.97.
(Edited by Manasa Mohan)