Kim Jong-un made history by being the first North Korean leader since 1953 to step onto South Korean soil. In another Asian meeting, Narendra Modi is hoping to “reset” Indo-China relations in an “informal meeting” with Xi Jinping in China. Meanwhile, Macron has left the United States and another — less friendly — European leader has arrived to meet Trump.
Crossing the line
On Friday, Kim Jong-un walked into South Korea, marking the first time a Korean leader has set foot in 65 years on the other side of the Korean peninsula to meet with President Moon Jae-in.
It was broadcast live across South Korea, with day-to-day activities halting. The two Korean leaders stood “hand-in-hand”, and posed for photographs in a moment that would have seemed impossible months ago. His “diplomatic dance” has even drawn America and China into the fray.
“Admit it,” writes the Economist. “The world’s commentators, Banyan included, have underestimated North Korea’s leader.”
The summit is meant to discuss a formal peace treaty for the Korean peninsula, and pave the way for Kim’s meeting with Donald Trump. But what is at stake?
“The trap for Mr Trump, in all likelihood, is that Mr Kim probably has no intention of giving up his (growing) nuclear arsenal. If that is so, the scheme was hatched months ago. November marked the height of tensions on the peninsula. That was when North Korea conducted its third test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and when talk in Washington was of giving Mr Kim a bloody nose. Perhaps, observers murmured, Mr Trump really was reckless enough to risk a second Korean war.”
“Don’t underestimate the importance at home of Mr Kim’s third plank, his nuclear capability. It is the crux of his domestic propaganda, and the army’s prestige rests on it. Since he probably fears his own generals more than America’s, there is reason to doubt that Mr Kim would ever trade his nukes away. Yet sanctions are starting to bite. Mr Kim seems to intend to switch emphasis, from acquiring nuclear arms to developing the economy. For that he needs the summits, and to keep Mr Moon, Mr Trump and Mr Xi dancing. It is unclear how the dance will end. But what is certain is that he will have rehearsed the steps more carefully than they have. After all, Mr Kim has more at stake.”
“Domestic disharmony”
The other big Asian meeting, between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, is representative of a shifting balance of power in the continent. “Xi and Modi may operate in very different contexts, one in charge of the world’s largest Communist Party–controlled state, the other running the world’s largest democracy. But both can be called nationalists whose primary appeal to their people is their commitment to making their country modern and powerful,” write Kerry Brown and Marya Shakil in Inside Story.
“In each case, the extent to which they achieve that goal will also have an impact on how they relate to their neighbour,” they write. “Can Xi-ism and Modi-ism happily coexist, or are the two headed for increasing tension, and perhaps even conflict, in the years ahead? In fact, the more pertinent question is about how stable and predictable their respective domestic politics are.”
“If Xi’s government fails to deliver on its objectives, a backlash isn’t out of the question; Chinese history down to modern times has been full of such turbulent events. If that were to happen, then India, despite its current challenges, would be waiting on the sidelines to pick up the regional baton.”
“This will be one of the great competitive relationships of the coming decades. Its unfolding will be worked out in the local politics of each of these great nations, and will depend on whether, in the end, democracy or one-party uniformity emerges as the best way to sustain prosperity and stability.”
Trump’s not likely to find a friend in Angela Merkel
The French president, Emmanual Macron, visited the United States this week and had a bizarre time: Donald Trump brushed dandruff of his shoulders, pulled him in for several awkward handshakes, and jostled him around. Now, German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in the United States on Friday. “But don’t expect a sequel to the buddy movie,” writes Katrin Bennhold in the New York Times. “Already, the contrasts could not be starker.”
“Mr. Macron was treated by President Trump to a 21-gun salute, a state dinner, a night of opera and a private visit to the home of George Washington. The public displays of affection between the two men were so gushy that they became the butt of jokes — even by Mr. Macron when, by the way, he addressed a joint session of Congress.”
“On the schedule for Ms. Merkel? A working lunch,” Bennhold writes.
“Even last year, Ms. Merkel was seen as the leader of Europe, the defender of the liberal world order and the counterbalance to Mr. Trump.”
“But after 12 years in office and a difficult election last year, and with a successor waiting in the wings, Ms. Merkel now appears to be receding in influence. It is a vacuum into which the young Mr. Macron has eagerly stepped.”
“Mr. Macron may be the one who has captured the imagination of fellow Europeans, but even he needs Berlin to push through any meaningful change in the functioning of the European Union.”
The problem, though, is “few leaders seem less personally in sync with Mr. Trump than Ms. Merkel.”
How things will play out for Europe remains to be seen now, after two meetings with Trump.