New Delhi: As Haryana goes to polls, a chronic issue is coming to the forefront in India—and the Modi government’s economic record is once again going to be put to the test.
The Financial Times reports that India is facing a public policy problem with the “shortage of formal jobs in the world’s most populous country and, according to companies, a corresponding shortage of suitable candidates to fill them.”
The failure to create enough jobs and upskill workers is a mismatch that represents “one of the biggest challenges” to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the FT writes. Government statistics and private surveys are at odds about the actual state of unemployment in India, it seems—but what the ground reflects is deep economic anxiety.
The story goes into the various details of the Modi government’s plans to tackle unemployment—from its new apprenticeship scheme to its cuts on corporate taxes and amendments of labour law. But the real issue is that there’s a widening skill gap, with job openings outstripping the number of qualified candidates.
“Modi’s political circle favours the Periodic Labour Force Survey, which reports quarterly rural and urban unemployment rates and shows the jobless rate at below 5 percent and falling,” the FT writes. “Analysts said the discrepancy was because of what counted as work, including part-time agricultural work.”
Circling back to Haryana, the story describes one worker’s confusion on whether he qualifies as unemployed or not, having resorted to working in the informal economy. He’s given up looking for jobs, the FT reports.
In other news that could affect the Indian economy and its joblessness numbers, Reuters reports that Apple might be considering returning some of its manufacturing to China.
The speculation comes after a fire broke out at the Tata Group’s Apple components plant in Hosur, Tamil Nadu. It has caused an indefinite production halt at the plant, which is the only Indian supplier of iPhone back panels and other parts for both Foxconn, Apple’s contract manufacturer, and Apple’s own assembly at another plant.
The Tata plant employs around 20,000 workers, and exports iPhones to the Netherlands, the US, and China, and is worth more than $250 million overall.
Reuters reports that current estimates set local sales of “1.5 million units of iPhone 14 and 15 models during the Indian festive season which runs from late October to early November, with Apple struggling to fulfil as much as 15% of that demand due to the fire.”
Apple likely has enough stock for eight week, the report says, which could delay the force of impact—unless the production halt continues. In which case, Apple will most likely set up another assembly line in China.
“Supply chain disruptions more generally have cast a shadow over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s drive to attract foreign investors to “Make in India”, especially in the electronics sector,” the story claims. “Apple has been diversifying beyond China but last year separate fire incidents in India caused suppliers Foxlink and Pegatron to briefly halt operations, with authorities finding much of the fire safety equipment at Foxlink’s facility was not functional,” it continues, adding that labour unrest and protests at other facilities like Foxconn can also be a stumbling block.
But enough of being tough on Indian industry and the Indian economy. There are some who are building a brand for Indian industry on the global stage—like Piyush Goyal.
In a refreshing take, Politico.eu ran a profile of India’s Union Minister of Commerce and Industry headlined “Meet the world’s toughest trade negotiator. It’s not Donald Trump”.
The lengthy profile describes Goyal as a “weapon for India as it takes up its mantle as a global superpower alongside the US and China,” following his “showmanship and negotiating savvy” at the World Trade Organisations’ 13th Ministerial Conference in March 2024 in Abu Dhabi.
India has been opposed to striking trade deals for decades, the piece claims—and all this began to change after Modi came to power in 2014. And Goyal’s the man making it happen: he’s “Modi’s trade bulldog”.
The Politico profile paints a picture of Goyal that Indian media hasn’t—and this is after Goyal declined to meet with its reporters. Likening him to Trump’s “showbiz personality” which is often “deliberately provocative”, Goyal is described as a man who loves “cliffhanging negotiations where he can sabotage and then come to the rescue on a white horse at the last minute”. He’s the “toughest negotiator” who “doesn’t like to beat around the bush”.
But it offers a note of caution: Goyal’s aggressive approach could backfire as it grates on the nerves of other countries.
“India and Goyal’s shtick is wearing thin with some, and its increasingly muscular approach has had missteps. Trade talks with Canada broke down a year ago after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused New Delhi of plotting a political assassination in Vancouver, later corroborated by a U.S. Department of Justice indictment,” Politico reports, going on to describe how Goyal nearly tanked the WTO’s conference by scuttling a “long-term ban on taxing digital cross-border trade, and blocked moves to curb India and other states’ farming subsidies, perceived by many as unfair.”
The profile ends by describing how beleaguered diplomats in Abu Dhabi tried to cobble together a deal for the global trade system that India could accept. Things came to a head when Fiji’s deputy prime minister said Goyal was blocking an effort to curb harmful fishing subsidies, which threatens food security.
“India’s trade chief “was so frustrated” with the criticism, the trade adviser to the Indian government said, “that he picked up his paper and walked straight to the dais to Director General [Okonjo-Iweala] and told her it’s unacceptable,” Politico reports. He then “threatened to sacrifice the consensus and “pull the plug” on a two-year extension to the ban on digital taxes.
The argument went on from 10 pm to 2 am. When it was over, WTO officials and diplomats were all grumbling about the “one country that was blocking the deal”. Politico’s profile points a clear finger.
Also read: Global media on Russia-Ukraine war stealing sparkle of India’s diamond city & Bihar’s 2005 jailbreak