New Delhi: The United States could face a shortage of nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038, according to new research that projects a growing gap between the country’s surgical workforce and its need for surgical care.
The analysis, described as the first unified assessment of the nation’s surgical workforce, found that the available workforce is projected to meet only 84.3% of the country’s surgical needs by 2038.
The findings are being presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026 in Washington, D.C., from September 26 to 29. Thousands of surgeons are participating in the event to discuss advances in surgical quality, patient safety, and access to care.
How the study assessed the shortage
The researchers used the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), a federal workforce projection model developed by the US Department of Health and Human Services, to estimate surgical workforce supply and demand from 2023 through 2038.
The analysis covered 10 surgical specialties: ophthalmology, plastic surgery, vascular surgery, urology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, neurosurgery, thoracic surgery, general surgery, and colorectal surgery.
“Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty’s problem,” said Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, the study’s lead author and a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine.
“When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental,” he added.
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Supply falls as demand rises
The study projects that the overall US surgeon supply will decline by 4.2% between 2023 and 2038, while demand for surgeons is expected to increase by 12.8%.
That widening gap could result in a national shortfall of approximately 27,940 surgeons, with the workforce meeting just 84.3% of projected need.
The largest shortages are anticipated in vascular surgery, where the workforce is projected to meet 65.8% of demand, followed by ophthalmology at 71.8%, thoracic surgery at 73.1% and plastic surgery at 74.1%.
Other specialties are also projected to face shortages. The workforce is expected to meet 84.4% of demand for urology, 87.5% for otolaryngology, 87.9% for orthopedics, and 88.7% for neurosurgery.
General surgery, at 91.3%, and colorectal surgery, at 98.3%, are projected to remain relatively closer to the level of demand.
Rural areas face a sharper gap
The shortage is projected to be more severe in rural areas, where access to surgical care is already limited.
For patients, fewer surgeons could mean longer waits for procedures and reduced access to timely treatment. Those needing specialised surgical care may also have to travel greater distances to receive treatment.
The researchers’ findings point to a workforce challenge that varies not only by surgical specialty, but also by geography.
Edited by Maryam Hassan