New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing from parts of India starting September 19, marking the end of an erratic and deficit season. A cocktail of global and local factors, including the super El Niño has led to the season falling short by around 13% from the long period average — the monsoon rainfall average calculated over a period of 50 years — and this has caused its reservoirs to be drier than usual.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast shows that the monsoon season this time will start retreating two days after its usual withdrawal date of September 17. According to data, in 2025, the withdrawal began on September 14. But this delay in monsoon withdrawal will not be enough to catch up on its seasonal deficit.
IMD director general M Mohapatra told ThePrint that the withdrawal will start from western Rajasthan — which is usually the norm — and will then progress to eastern Rajasthan, Gujarat and then rest of India, before a complete withdrawal happens around mid October.
“The season is expected to end in a deficit, as we had forecast. The first half of the season was drier. Most of the rainfall this season has been received in the latter part, but that has not been enough to meet the mark,” Mohapatra said.
IMD reports show that the rainfall this season has been particularly erratic. This means that instead of receiving small quantities of consistent rainfall throughout the season, most of the rain was concentrated in the month of July and towards the end of August.
State-wise rainfall distribution
While most states have missed the normal rainfall mark this year, states in the south of India and the Northeast have been particularly hit. In many parts, the shortage has touched up to 60%.
IMD data shows that between June 1 and September 14, Meghalaya recorded a 59% rainfall deficit–the highest among all states. Other states including Arunachal Pradesh (42%), Andhra Pradesh (43%), Punjab (40%), Manipur (42%) and Kerala (27%) have also recorded a deficit.
Curiously, Bihar, which is currently facing a severe flood because of intense rain and a flash flood in the upstream Tibet and Nepal, is itself facing a 35% rainfall deficit.
Guided by a strengthening El Niño, and a string of unfavourable local weather conditions, has kept the rainfall below normal for most states. And this overall rainfall deficit means that the country could be staring at a water crisis in the coming months. Around 161 water reservoirs in India are over 32 billion cubic metres short from last year’s water levels, and over 52 billion cubic metres below its total capacity.
“The El Niño has not peaked yet. We are tracking it regularly and with utmost accuracy. In not only India, but in many parts of the world you will be able to see the impact of El Niño this time,” Mohapatra said.
The impact of this shortfall is clearly visible in India’s water reservoirs, which are primarily dependent on southwest monsoon rain for replenishment.
According to the data maintained by the Central Water Commission’s Reservoir Storage Monitoring System — a centralised dashboard which provides live updates on the status of water levels in these reservoirs — as of September 10, there were 130.554 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water stories across all of these reservoirs.
This was significantly short of its full reserve level or total capacity of 184.761 BCM. At the same time last year, these reservoirs were holding 163.438 BCM of water, higher than the average of 140.271 BCM for the period.
Zooming into some of the worst impacted states, Andhra Pradesh has seven major reservoirs, with a combined total capacity of 12.461 BCM. However, as of September 10, these reservoirs were holding only 5.154 BCM of water–less than half of what it had in the same period last year.
Similarly, in Punjab the current water in the only water reservoir in the state is 1.214 BCM from its capacity of 2.344 BCM .
Officials from CWC explained that the levels this year were only “slightly lower”, and that there was no need to panic.
“The levels tend to fluctuate. We constantly communicate the water levels to state and the central governments to take any kind of interventions that might be required. As of now, there is nothing to worry,” a senior CWC official said.
How has the monsoon this year been?
IMD data shows that the rainfall this monsoon which arrived in Kerala on June 4 this year — season has remained deficit from the get go.
June this year did not witness any low-pressure systems, which would have favoured monsoon rains. Usually about three to four LPS are recorded in the opening month of the season. An LPS is a region where the atmospheric pressure is lower than in the surrounding areas, causing the air to converge and encourage the formation of clouds and rain.
Data shows that because of a weakened weather system, June ended with a rainfall deficit of about 38% below the month’s long period average.
July is when things started getting better. There were four LPS, which also lasted for about 24 days, significantly higher than the month’s average of about 13 days. This was also the time when most of June’s deficit was also recovered. By the end of July, the total rainfall recorded for the month was around 1% above the LPA.
In August, the country saw six low pressure systems — as opposed to the monthly average of about five LPS — two of which intensified into depressions. There were also eight western disturbances. The number of LPS days was also 26, at least 10 days higher than the month’s average.
However, this did not translate into sufficient rainfall on the ground. The August rainfall data shows that there was a deficit of about 16% recorded by the month-end.
Experts explained that this was primarily because the monsoon circulation could not produce enough rain-bearing systems. This was also the period when El Niño started intensifying, showing its impact through suppressed rainfall.
El Niño, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon in which trade winds and surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean change course, leading to large-scale disruptions in weather patterns across the world.
In Asia, including India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and even Australia, El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoons, and sometimes even droughts.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change) at Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, said that India has been lucky to have evaded the peak of El Niño. The coming months could be worse.
“We first need to understand that El Niño alone does not guide India’s weather. A lot of other local factors come into effect. But as the weather system peaks in the coming months, India can face warmer temperatures,” Palawat explained.
The peak of El Niño after the monsoon will mean warmer winters, coupled with low snowfall, which is also likely to spillover to the 2027 monsoon.
El Niño and its prediction
According to the latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organisation, this El Niño is turning out to be one of the strongest to ever be recorded since record keeping.
“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an ‘exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%’ that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network,” the forecast read.
The forecast added, “Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement that countries will have to be prepared to handle the blow of what’s to come.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the WMO have we launched such a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.
(Edited by Aakriti Handa)