(Reuters) – A U.S. government forecaster on Thursday confirmed that El Nino conditions are present, with farmers from Australia to India bracing for the possible hit to crops from the dry, hot conditions it could bring.
El Nino, a warming of water surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, could gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly advisory.
Early signs of El Nino weather were already threatening food producers across Asia, while American growers are counting on heavier summer rains from the weather phenomenon to alleviate the impact of severe drought.
It could lead to winter crop production falling 34% from record highs in Australia, and also impacting palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia – which supply 80% of the world’s palm oil – and Thailand.
In India, which largely depends on the monsoon rains for its summer crop, impacts from El Nino could be offset by the Indian Ocean Dipole, or the Indian Nino, yet below normal rainfall was expected over north-western parts of the country.
At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month, at 56% chance during November-January, and an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength, the NOAA forecast said.
While it was too early to draw parallels with the 2016 El Niño event, “it was very similar as far as the strength and the water temperatures that have started to rise, particularly so fast in the last couple months,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at Maxar.
(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru and Gloria Dickie in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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