By Rich McKay
(Reuters) – A tropical storm is expected to form off Florida this weekend after a disorganized weather system crosses Cuba, bringing howling winds, torrential rain and ocean surges to the Keys and the state’s Gulf Coast, forecasters said on Friday.
The storm will deliver up to 12 inches of rain and winds up to 73 mph as it moves northward, the National Hurricane Center said.
At some point, the storm will move inland and reemerge along the Atlantic Seaboard to begin a slow crawl along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines early next week.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has already put the majority of the state’s cities and counties under emergency orders ahead of the expected landfall.
“It’s over Cuba right now,” said NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rome said in an interview on Friday. “We are anticipating it to turn into a tropical storm over the weekend. Right now it’s a broad, sloppy system but we expect it to become more organized when it’s back over Gulf waters.”
If the storm swells into a tropical storm – with winds between 39 mph and 73 mph – it will take the name Debby.
U.S. forecasters expect a large number of Atlantic hurricanes to form in the 2024 season, which began June 1, with four to seven major hurricanes forming out of a total of 25 named storms. That is more than during 2005’s record breaking season that spawned hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Only one hurricane, Beryl, has formed in the Atlantic so far this year. The earliest Category 5 storm on record, it ravaged the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before rolling up the Gulf Coast of Texas as a Category 1 storm, with winds up to 95 mph.
Regardless of whether the current system strengthens into a tropical storm, Rome emphasized that it will bring as much as a foot of rain to parts of Florida.
“People often use wind speed as a proxy for how dangerous a system is,” Rome said. “But this is a classic case to not do that. The rain rate, it comes down so quickly, makes it dangerous.”
He said it is too soon to say exactly when or where the storm might make landfall this weekend.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have already been issued for the Florida Keys and the Gulf Coast.
Key West Mayor Teri Johnston said his tiny island community was “well prepared but not worried” about the storm.
“Everyone’s on it, everyone knows what to do. Load up on 3-to-7 days of supplies and water, batteries, remove all potential projectiles from the yard,” she said. “We’re ready.”
The storm is expected to follow a similar track as the deadly 2022 Hurricane Ian, which killed at least 103 dead in Florida and did billions of dollars in damage as it made its way along the Gulf Coast.
(Reporting by Rich McKay in Atlanta; Editing by Frank McGurty and Nick Zieminski)
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