New Delhi: A day after the Congress secured a clear majority in the Karnataka assembly, party leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah said, “This result is a stepping stone to the Lok Sabha election [next year].”
Elections for the Karnataka assembly were held earlier this month and the results Friday showed that the Congress had won 135 of 224 seats.
Speaking to media persons Saturday, Siddaramaiah added, “I hope all non-BJP parties come together and see that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is defeated. We need a secular and democratic government at the Centre.”
This may be easier said than done, however. The Congress might have swept the Karnataka assembly polls, but there just might be a silver lining for the BJP, which had been in power in the state ahead of this month’s elections.
As an analysis of Election Commission (EC) data by ThePrint shows, since 2009, the BJP’s vote share in the state in Lok Sabha elections has been better than that in assembly polls, producing handsome gains for the party in terms of seats in the lower house of parliament.
Data was analysed starting from 1985 — the year the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party (JP) swept the assembly elections, becoming the first party to secure a majority against the Congress in the state.
Lok Sabha elections usually come within a year of the Karnataka assembly elections. However, despite the Congress Party having a higher vote share than the BJP in the assembly elections, they have lost ground in parliamentary elections in the past three rounds.
Even in the 2009 Parliamentary elections, which the Congress won, the BJP had a better vote share in Karnataka.
According to Karnataka-based political analyst Narendar Pani, “Karnataka’s electorate has shown the distinction between the national elections and state level [polls]”.
Also read: Congress makes inroads in most Karnataka divisions, eats into BJP, JD(S) votes
BJP’s score card
In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party by winning 104 seats. Its vote share in the assembly was, however, only 36 per cent, according to EC figures. The Congress, with 78 seats, still managed a vote share of 38 per cent, and went on to form government in the state in coalition with the Janata Dal (Secular).
It’s a different matter that the Congress-JD(S) government of 2018 didn’t last long, paving the way for the BJP to come to power in the state.
Meanwhile, a year after the 2018 assembly polls, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 51 per cent of votes in Karnataka, a 15 per cent rise from its assembly vote share, which translated into the party bagging 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka. The Congress managed to get 32 per cent votes.
In the 2013 assembly polls, the Congress secured 36.5 per cent votes and 122 seats to form the government. The BJP’s vote bank got split following a rebellion by B.S. Yediyurappa. The party ended up with about 20 per cent vote share, and 40 seats, while Yediyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) party got around 10 per cent votes, according to EC data.
In the Lok Sabha election a year later, in 2014, the BJP’s vote share in Karnataka went up to 43.3 per cent and it secured 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Congress managed a 31.15 per cent vote share.
In the 2008 assembly polls, the BJP had secured 33.8 per cent votes and formed a government with 110 seats, with support from Independent candidates. The Congress secured 35 per cent votes, but the vote share didn’t reflect in the number of seats it got — 80.
In the Lok Sabha elections the next year, the BJP vote share went up by 7 percentage points and the Congress’s by 3. The BJP won 19 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Congress got only six.
It was after 2004 that the BJP started improving on its assembly poll performance in the LS polls.
In 2004, the Karnataka assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections were held simultaneously. The Congress secured 35 per cent votes and 65 seats against the BJP’s 32 per cent vote share and 79 seats in the assembly elections, according to EC data. In the LS polls, the BJP’s vote share went up by 3 percentage points and Congress’s by 1. The BJP ended up with 18 LS seats from Karnataka and the Congress with 8.
In the previous elections in 1999, however, when the Karnataka assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections had again been held simultaneously, the Congress won the assembly polls and went on to do even better in the Lok Sabha.
So was the case with the Janata Dal’s (JD) domination of the 1994 assembly and 1996 Lok Sabha elections. The current Janata Dal (Secular) is an offshoot of the JD which itself was formed when many Janata Party factions and other smaller parties merged.
In 1996, the party won five Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka, while the JD took 16. The latter had secured 115 assembly seats in 1994, against the Congress’s 34.
In the simultaneous elections held in 1989, the Congress dominated both the assembly and the Lok Sabha elections with 175 and 27 seats respectively. The Janata Dal won 24 and 1 seats, respectively.
The Congress swept the 1984 Lok Sabha elections with 24 seats, prompting the then Janata Party leader Ramakrishna Hegde to dissolve the assembly and seek re-election. In 1985 assembly polls, the Janata Party won 139 seats against the Congress’s 65.
The 1990s were when the BJP was still making a space for itself in the state. In the 1994 assembly elections, it received a 17 per cent vote share, which rose to 25 per cent in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls. Before that, its vote share and seats in the Karnataka assembly were in single digits.
Issues vary, so do polls
Political analysts believe that the issues across elections remain different and national leaders cannot fetch votes in local polls.
“They are different elections. Issues are different therefore, people vote differently. You cannot expect prime ministers to get you votes in state elections. Similarly, you cannot expect state leaders to get you votes in national elections. Two different governments, two different elections, why should we vote the same way,” Pani told ThePrint.
For the coming Lok Sabha elections, he said, it will be important how Congress projects its prime ministerial candidate. “It’s a fresh decision, it’s not a carry forward from this election,” he added.
Speaking to ThePrint, Professor Chambi Puranik, a former faculty member of the political science department at the University of Mysore, said that agendas of national elections don’t mix with state elections in Karnataka.
“People of Karnataka think that central leaders have a different agenda — national interest, infrastructure, etc. They keep a distinction between the central government’s performance and its agenda,” said Puranik.
He added, “A majority of them (Karnataka people) are farmers, so they have attachment to their lands, fertilisers, water and all these subjects. They expect the state government to deliver welfare schemes.”
Popular central leaders, like PM Modi, do get more Lok Sabha seats. They make that distinction very clearly. It’s a very mature and healthy distinction that voters in the state have maintained, felt experts.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
Also read: Behind Congress’s Karnataka win, state chief, ‘organisation man’ & now ‘Vokkaliga face’ Shivakumar