New Delhi: India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is now estimated to grow by 7.6 percent in FY 2025-26, while nominal GDP is pegged at 8.6 percent under the newly revised series with FY 2022-23 as the base year, according to data released Friday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
Both numbers are an upward revision from the First Advance Estimates released in January 2026, based on the older FY 2011-12 base year, which placed real GDP growth at 7.4 percent and nominal growth at 8 percent.
“The increase from 7.4 percent (First Advance Estimates – FY 2011-12 base and old methodology) to 7.6 percent (Second Advance Estimates, FY 2022-23 base and new methodology) reflects redistribution across components, rather than a broad acceleration,” said Aashi Gupta, associate at New Delhi-based think tank Centre of Social and Economic Progress, told ThePrint.
She added, “The new 7.6 percent estimate portrays growth as more industry and services-driven, with a stronger consumption underpinning, rather than signalling an overall acceleration of the economy.”
In the revised series, real GDP growth has remained above 7 percent for three consecutive years—7.2 percent in FY 2023-24 and 7.1 percent in FY 2024-25—suggesting resilient growth despite global uncertainties.
The new series shows the manufacturing sector to be a clear standout performer. The sector is now estimated to have grown 11.5 percent in FY 2025-26, a sharp jump from the 7 percent projected earlier under the old series.
Overall, the primary sector spanning agriculture is projected to grow at a modest 2.6 percent in FY2025-26 under the new series.
On the other hand, both secondary (manufacturing, construction and utility) and tertiary sectors (financial, IT services, trade etc.) are poised for more than 9 percent growth.
On the demand side, the latest data shows that both Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rose over 7 percent in FY 2025-26, reflecting that growth was supported by both consumer spending and capital formation.
PFCE captures spending by households and non-profit institutions, while GFCF measures investment in fixed assets such as machinery and infrastructure by business and government.
Basis the new GDP series, Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has revised the GDP growth numbers for FY 2026-27 from 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent to between 7 percent and 7.4 percent.
“At the moment, we feel that the risk is on the upside in this range. That is, the economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 percent rather than 7 percent, he told reporters at the release of the new GDP series.
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Key methodology changes in new series
The new GDP series with base year FY 2022-23 introduces several methodological changes and expanded data coverage. ThePrint had earlier reported on these changes on the basis of an interaction with MoSPI secretary Saurabh Garg.
One of the key shifts is in the measurement of the household sector, which in the earlier series was derived by extrapolating survey results using proxy indicators. Whereas, in the revised series, annual level estimates are being compiled using regular surveys such as the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
According to MoSPI this eliminates dependence on inter-survey growth assumptions and allows more accurate capture of informal and unincorporated activity, including gig and platform workers.
The new series also strengthens deflation practices by eliminating single deflation. Double deflation is now being applied for the manufacturing sector. Under this approach, outputs and inputs are deflated separately using their respective price indices leading to more accurate measurement of real growth.
“In the earlier series we were using around 180 deflators, now we are going to be using somewhere around 600 odd deflators which reflects the granular deflations,” said Saurabh Garg, secretary MoSPI at the press conference for release of the new GDP series.
The new series will also integrate the Supply Use Table (SUT) framework with national accounts. SUT maps what industries produce (supply) and how those goods and services are used—either by other industries or final consumers (use). Integration of SUT is expected to minimise discrepancy between GDP measured from production and expenditure approaches.
Among new data sources in the revised series, MoSPI would be using GST data, Public Finance Management System (PFMS), e-Vahan, and other sources that are comprehensive and are available at a shorter time lag.
GST data is being used for allocation of all-India estimates for the private corporate sector. Data from the PFMS is being used to improve government sector estimates, while e-Vahan data is being used to refine estimates of private final consumption expenditure related to road transport services.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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