New Delhi: New Delhi has lost a stable partner in Sheikh Hasina and its anchor in the neighbourhood in Dhaka after the Bangladesh Prime Minister resigned and fled the country on Monday.
The fall of Hasina leaves India with governments in the neighbourhood not expected to lean towards New Delhi — except for Sri Lanka.
In 2023, Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu, a leader known to favour China as a development partner, as its President. The new Nepalese Prime Minister, K.P. Sharma Oli, has said more than once that he would retake Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura from India.
On the other hand, the leading opposition party in Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh National Party (BNP), has run a campaign against India since the start of the year. While the BNP boycotted the 2014 and 2023 elections, its 2024 “India Out” campaign, especially the boycotting of Indian goods during the Ramadan season in April this year, was reportedly received positively.
In January this year, Hasina’s return for a fourth consecutive term amid the changes in leadership in India’s neighbourhood had reassured New Delhi that it at least had a friend in Dhaka.
The first foreign leader to visit India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to power for a third term in June 2024 was Hasina. Her state visit on 21-22 June was also her first overseas trip since reassuming power. Following her visit to India, Hasina also made a trip to China.
With Hasina leaving the stage, Bangladesh’s political uncertainty is a new issue facing India in its already challenging neighbourhood.
Also read: ‘Disappointed’ Sheikh Hasina has no plans for political comeback, son tells BBC
Maldives
In September 2023, the former mayor of Malé, Mohamed Muizzu, known for being pro-China in his policies and running on an “India Out” election campaign, became the President of Maldives.
After assuming power, Muizzu quickly moved to replace India as a security partner, purchasing military drones from Türkiye in a $37 million deal in January this year. Later in May, Muizzu pushed out the military troops New Delhi had sent to the Maldives to operate three aviation platforms.
For his first overseas visit as President, Muizzu chose Ankara and travelled to China afterwards. While Muizzu came to India for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in June this year, a bilateral visit between the two leaders has not happened.
Muizzu has also declined to renew a hydrographic agreement with India and allowed Chinese research vessels to dock at the country’s ports despite India’s reservations.
All his actions point to Malé tilting towards Beijing.
In January this year, three Maldivian deputy ministers made racist comments against Modi, setting off a diplomatic row. The uproar led to a ‘boycott Maldives’ campaign on social media, with several Indians cancelling trips to the island country. Indians made up the maximum number of tourists to Maldives between 2021-2023, but their number has declined this year.
While India has agreed to roll over a $50 million loan to the country to ease its growing debt burden, there are now reports of a tourism agreement in the works.
Nevertheless, the ties between the two countries remain tense.
Also read: How quota protests snowballed into movement that ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-yr rule in Bangladesh
Nepal
On the same day that protests against the Hasina government broke out in Bangladesh for the first time in July, K.P. Sharma Oli was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Nepal for the third time.
Oli, who served as PM in 2015 and again between 2018 and 2021, has, in the past, been publicly anti-India.
During his first term in 2015, Oli prioritised building ties with China, signing a trade and energy supply agreement with the country, while refusing to allow the President of Nepal B.D Bhandari to visit India.
In his second term, Oli ridiculed India’s national emblem and redrew Nepal’s political map to include Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura as a part of the country. He had declared that he would reclaim the disputed region at “any cost”.
During that term, he also said that the Indian strain of the COVID-19 virus is more lethal than that of China or Italy. However, towards the end of his term in 2021, Oli, who might have been catering to domestic sentiments, declared that all misunderstandings with India had been “resolved”.
Then, in July 2024, he again asserted that Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura are a part of Nepal, redrawing old battle lines.
Also read: Interim govt to run Bangladesh, says army chief after PM Hasina resigns, flees country
Myanmar
Myanmar has been in the midst of a civil war since the military junta returned to power in 2021.
Earlier on Monday, the military government in Naypyitaw admitted that it had lost contact with senior officers of a major military base in the northeastern part of the country — a major setback in its efforts against various rebel groups. The base in Lashio was one of the 14 regional commands and became the first to fall into the hands of a rebel group.
The civil war has left Indian projects in Myanmar — including the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway (IMT Highway) and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) — incomplete.
In February this year, India announced its intention to fence the 1,643-kilometre-long border with Myanmar. The decision stemmed from security concerns about drug trafficking and smuggling and the presence of Indian insurgent groups along the border.
Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar has continuously raised the issue of border stability with Myanmar’s leadership, including in July this year, when Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U. Than Swe visited India.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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