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Predictability has a premium, says Jaishankar as India, EU grow closer amid Trump tariff uncertainty

The external affairs minister met with visiting German counterpart Johann Wadephul Wednesday, days after PM Narendra Modi had a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

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New Delhi: With US President Donald Trump’s shadow looming over India’s ties with the West, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar declared Wednesday that “predictability has a huge premium today”, as New Delhi looks to deepen ties with Germany and the European Union (EU).

At a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, Jaishankar said, “It is a relationship (India-Germany) where largely what we promise to each other and policies that we have, remain constant and remain predictable. So, you know, predictability today has a huge premium in global politics. So, I do think that, you know, this relationship is actually only growing in its weight and its value and part of the reason why we have met so regularly, even in the last few months, and spoken to each other is because of that.”

Wadephul concurred, calling “reliability, friendship and predictability” as “invaluable” in the current geopolitical context, especially as Europe is continuing to witness the Russia-Ukraine war, while the American President has taken aim at friends and foes alike with his trade policy.

The tensions between India and the US, especially after Trump imposed tariffs of 50 per cent on Indian exports that came into effect around the end of last month, added impetus for New Delhi and Brussels to complete their negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) before the end of the year.

India and the EU have been engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations for an FTA since 2022. However, during European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to India in February, New Delhi and Brussels agreed to decisively conclude negotiations by the end of this year.

Wadephul’s visit comes just after Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded a visit to the Chinese city of Tianjin over the weekend where he held meetings with President Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia. These visits are being perceived as a message to the US in particular of India’s strategic autonomy.

The German foreign minister in New Delhi highlighted that Berlin views China as a “partner” in certain sectors, a competitor in other fields and a growing “systemic rival” in a number of sectors.

“China’s increasingly aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific has caused concern for both our countries. More generally, we aim to further expand our cooperation in the areas of defense, security, and armaments, and we talked about this today, be that through common exercises of our forces or speeding up the granting of export licenses process for the Indo-Pacific engagement,” Wadephul said.

Trump’s reordering of the global trading regime has added weight to the speed at which India is looking to conclude deals with third countries. In May, India and the UK announced the conclusion of negotiations for a FTA, while the FTA with Oman is expected to be announced soon.

New Delhi has also accelerated its negotiations with Australia for the second tranche of its trade agreement, while discussions are proceeding with a number of countries including in West Asia and South East Asia to conclude trade deals.

“We hope that this (the India – EU FTA) can be speedily negotiated so that it can be concluded before the end of this year, in autumn this year, and hopefully lead to a ratification process. If others set up impediments to trade, we should respond by lowering these impediments and hurdles,” Wadephul said Wednesday at the joint press conference.

While neither foreign minister mentioned the US directly, the shadow of Trump’s tariffs were clear. The German foreign minister is in India for a two-day visit that began Tuesday in Bengaluru before his official programme in New Delhi Wednesday.

Apart from meeting Jaishankar, Wadephul also met with Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. The German foreign minister was accompanied by a large business delegation during the Bengaluru leg of the visit. It is his first India visit in his current capacity.

Jaishankar also raised the issue of the Indian child in the German foster care system, calling for her traditional and cultural rights to be respected. The child has been in the German foster care system for the better part of the last three years.

The child from Maharashtra’s Thane district has been in foster care in Germany since 2021 after she was accidentally hurt by her grandmother in Germany when the baby was seven months old.


Also Read: ‘India wants partners, not preachers’—Jaishankar slams Europe’s lack of engagement with Russia for peace


‘India equals Asia’

The German foreign minister asserted that for Berlin, “India equals Asia” and despite differences in political positions and priorities, the two countries share “democratic principles and regulatory steps.”

“When you look at the history of India, it is more than obvious that at the time when I was young and went to school and later studied at university, I got to know India as a non-aligned country. Of course, that has left its mark on this country and distinguishes this country from Germany, which has always been a part of nature, part of the Western world,” said Wadephul.

The differences between the two countries largely stem over Russia’s war with Ukraine. While for Europe, the war at their borders takes priority, for India, ties with Moscow have endured for decades. New Delhi has become a large procurer of Russian oil in the last three years with imports touching $56 billion in the last financial year (2024-2025).

The EU in its latest sanctions package has imposed secondary sanctions on a number of firms and the purchase of Russian crude refined in a third country. The EU package also targets the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, partly owned by the Russian firm Rosneft.

Wadephul came out in support of such sanctions to hurt Moscow’s revenues and thereby impact its war-machine. India has maintained that it will continue purchasing crude keeping its own energy security in mind.

“In this conflict, we have right from the outset been pursuing a policy that has the objective of Russia and Ukraine following the path of negotiations. However, what we have noticed of late is that despite the enormous efforts that the American president has invested, Russia has not been willing to sit down at the negotiating table,” Wadephul said.

The German foreign minister added, “As far as that is concerned, that is a clear German and European approach that we want to do whatever we can to make President Putin sit down at the negotiating table. As far as Europe is concerned, this includes sanctions being imposed on Russia. We have not used tariffs, but it was sanctions that we have imposed on Russia.”

Wadephul was circumspect, however, adding that “there are no bottlenecks” when it comes to nations purchasing Russian oil due to their needs and that the oil prices remain stable.

The German foreign minister welcomed Modi’s meeting with Putin Monday, highlighting that it was “appreciated” that the Indian leader raised the issue of peace in the Russia-Ukraine war.

(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)


Also Read: Germany, India sign key intel pacts; Scholz says ‘pleased’ with Delhi’s efforts to end Ukraine war


 

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