New Delhi: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who arrived in Moscow Monday morning for his five-day visit to Russia, has his hands full. From resolving payments issues between the two countries that have impacted key projects, including those in the defence sector, to a new maritime corridor initiative, the foreign minister has a packed agenda.
During this visit, his first to Moscow in 2023, Jaishankar will also attend programmes in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
“During this visit, EAM will meet the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia H.E. Denis Manturov to discuss matters related to economic engagement. EAM will meet his counterpart, the Foreign Minister of Russia H.E. Sergey Lavrov for discussion on bilateral, multilateral and international issues,” the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had in a statement announcing his visit Sunday.
It added that “the time tested India-Russia partnership” has remained stable and resilient and continues to be characterised by the “spirit of the special and privileged strategic partnership”.
Jaishankar’s visit comes at a time when India and Russia have not held their annual bilateral summit for two years in a row.
The last of these summits, which is the highest forum for talks between the Prime Minister of India and the President of Russia, was held on 6 December 2021 in New Delhi. A total of 21 of these annual summits have been held till date, with India and Russia alternating as hosts.
At the time of the 21st India-Russia summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 22nd summit in 2022 to be hosted in Russia. However, plans for the summit did not materialise.
On 24 February 2022, Putin announced a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which has since become the largest conventional conflict to unfold on continental Europe since the end of World War II.
Trade between India and Russia has almost tripled since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reaching $49.3 billion during the financial year 2022-23 — a 276 percent increase from FY 2021-22, when total trade in goods stood at $13.12 billion, largely driven by crude oil.
Data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry also shows that from being India’s 25th largest trading partner in 2021-22, Russia emerged as its 5th largest trading partner in 2022-23.
On 13 November this year, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra met with Andrey Rudenko, the deputy foreign minister of Russia, in New Delhi, where the two sides took stock of bilateral ties, according to a statement issued by the Embassy of Russia in India.
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Likely agenda for Jaishankar’s Russia visit
During Jaishankar’s visit, the two sides are expected to discuss various aspects of bilateral ties including trade, energy, defence, and connectivity. India has till date not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In 2022-23, Indian import of oil from Russia increased by 639.92 percent from $5.25 billion in 2021-22 to $38.814 billion in 2022-23, according to data published by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Owing to Western sanctions imposed on Russia, New Delhi and Moscow established a rupee-ruble mechanism for trade that has since become a ‘problem’ for Moscow, as reported earlier by ThePrint.
Indian exports to Russia in 2022-23 stood at $3.1 billion, while its imports stood at $46.21 billion — a $43 billion deficit — which has led to ‘billions’ of rupees accumulated by Russia, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister had highlighted during a visit to India in May 2023.
In November 2023, ThePrint had reported how the Government of India is trying to find means by which Russia can use its surplus rupees, including potential business deals, infrastructure investments, investments in government securities and a potential system wherein Indian exporters could be paid directly in rupees.
The result of the trade deficit between Russia and India led to Indian importers using dirhams and the renminbi yuan to pay for Russian oil, despite its own resistance to trade in yuan, as reported by ThePrint earlier.
Given the high volumes of trade between Russia and China, Moscow has more avenues to use the yuan than the Indian rupee.
Apart from discussions on the rupee-ruble mechanism and economic ties, connectivity projects including the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor are also expected to figure in talks during Jaishankar’s visit.
In September, during the eighth Eastern Economic Forum meeting held in Vladivostok, the two countries had discussed the development of the Eastern Maritime Corridor connecting the Russian port of Vladivostok in the Pacific Ocean, with the port of Chennai on India’s Coromandel coast.
The development of the Eastern Maritime Corridor would reduce the time of travel of cargo between the Russian Far East and India to about 24 days from the current time of over 40 days it currently takes to transport goods via the port of St. Petersburg to Mumbai, according to reports.
The Chennai-Vladivostok sea route would cover a distance of about 5,600 nautical miles, while the current St. Petersburg-Mumbai route covers a distance of about 8,675 nautical miles.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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