New Delhi: The Indian Navy’s long-delayed submarine modernisation plan is once again caught between ambition and uncertainty. Even as German shipbuilder Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has begun firming up Indian tie-ups after winning the bid for six next-generation submarines under Project 75 India (P75I), an equally critical proposal for three additional Scorpene remains stalled.
On Wednesday, TKMS signed an MoU with Hyderabad-based VEM Technologies for weapons technology, and is also in talks with Mumbai-based CFF Fluid Control.
The agreement come months after TKMS, partnering state-run Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL), bagged the P75I project. However, cost negotiations are still to begin.
A high-powered panel had cleared P75I for negotiations only in late August, after addressing objections raised by Larsen & Toubro (L&T), which had tied up with Spain’s Navantia and was the second bidder.
The Strategic Partnership model, under which the project is being executed, was meant to break the monopoly of state-run yards by bringing private players into submarine building.
But with only L&T qualifying in the private sector, the Navy roped in MDL as well for the P75I. TKMS, initially in talks with L&T, ultimately switched sides to MDL sensing a possible single vendor situation.
It is also learnt that that another fear was the possibility of South Korean experience where TKMS tied up private firm Daewoo Shipbuilders for their submarine programme and within years the South Korean company became a competitor.
A new design, a long wait
While the Navy is hopeful, insiders say the road ahead will be anything but smooth. The new TKMS submarines will be built on an entirely new design, not based on its proven Type 212/214 platforms.
Unlike the rounded hulls of conventional boats, the new design will feature angular lines for reduced sonar signature, TKMS CEO Khalil Rahman had told ThePrint in July last year.
This meant that the submarine design would not be as mature as the ones already built by the TKMS even if inspired from the existing design.
According to the request for proposal (RFP), the first submarine must be delivered seven years after contract signing with 45 percent indigenous content, followed by one each year until the programme reaches 60 percent localisation.
This means that even if a contract is signed tomorrow, the first submarine will be delivered only in 2032, and that too, if there is no delay.
Sources in the defence establishment fear that technical consultations and design verification could take time. While TKMS is seen as a reliable partner, the sources remained sceptical of the MDL claim of delivering the first submarine within 7 years of signing the contract.
The navy is hopeful of signing the contract by the end of next year, meaning first delivery only around 2034 if all goes as per the plan.
The Scorpene submarine project, jointly executed by the MDL and the Naval Group, was much delayed. The delivery of the last, sixth Scorpene submarine was to be completed in 2017, but the first was delivered that year, leading to not just delays but higher cost run ups as well.
Even though the deliveries are complete, the six submarines lack the Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) System and the heavy-weight torpedoes as originally planned.
Ballooning costs
Another hurdle in the P75I is cost factor. When the project received fresh Acceptance of Necessity (AON) in 2018, it was benchmarked at Rs 43,000 crore.
ThePrint has learnt that MDL and TKMS’s bid crossed Rs 1.1 lakh crore, with GST pushing it even higher. It is understood that the Germans have already been sounded to pare the costs down, with the Navy hoping to finalise the deal in the Rs 60,000–70,000 crore range.
Sources in the know said that the defence and security establishment had also toyed with the idea of MDL being asked to sublet two submarines to L&T or expanding the order to nine at a later stage.
However, it is learnt that no such plan has moved forward.
Scorpene stop-gap in limbo
Complicating matters is the uncertain fate of a separate proposal to order three additional Scorpene-class submarines, intended as a cushion against the P75I delay.
Although cost talks with the MDL and French partner Naval Group were completed last year, the contract remains unsigned.
The high-powered panel that had looked into the submarine programme has neither formally cancelled the plan or decided to push it forward. The Navy blames the MDL and the Naval Group for the current state.
It was on 11 August 2023 that the MDL was approached for the procurement of three conventional Scorpene-class submarines under a repeat order of Project 75. The agreement was to be signed with a delivery schedule of 72 months per submarine.
The Navy had hoped for a quick contract signing amid mounting challenges in the underwater domain, which are set to grow with continued submarine modernisation by Pakistan and China.
The additional Scorpenes file was processed under the Buy (Indian) category as per Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020, which mandates a minimum of 60 percent indigenisation.
The French were pushing for this project, too. However, the Navy was taken aback when the MDL initially submitted a bid exceeding Rs 70,000 crore for three additional Scorpenes, which are slightly bigger than the earlier six and will be similar to what the Brazilian Navy has.
The bid was sent back by the Navy, and a fresh one submitted by the MDL costing about Rs 52,000 crore.
This was further brought down to about Rs 36,000 crore post-GST, as first reported by ThePrint in February.
Sources said that had MDL and the Naval Group bid the right price from the beginning only, the contract would have been signed by now. Yet the file has been left hanging, with neither approval nor cancellation from the government.
With P75I still years away and the follow-on Scorpenes stuck, India’s long-promised 30-year submarine plan remains behind schedule.
Senior officers privately argue that while P75I is crucial, an immediate Scorpene contract is essential to plug capability gaps.But they also express doubts on MDL’s capability to carry on with two projects.
For now, the Navy’s undersea fleet, once envisaged as a formidable arm, continues to be shaped less by strategy and more by delays, price wrangles, and the tug-of-war between public sector yards, private industry, and foreign partners.
Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi had last December had expressed hope of the additional Scorpene deal being inked the following month, that is January this year.
He had also explained that the 30-year-old submarine building programme has been tweaked and approved.
According to the plan fixed in 1999, India was to induct 24 conventional submarines by 2030. However, only six Scorpene submarines have been inducted so far. The experience from the P75(I) programme was to be used in Project 76 under which 12 totally indigenous submarines were to be built.
Under the Modi government, the late defence minister Manohar Parrikar had decided to convert six of the 12 submarines into nuclear attack submarines that will remain with the Indian Navy and will be part of the naval budget.
While India has a separate programme for nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), their funding is through a separate system and they operate under the Strategic Forces Command (SFC).
Giving details of the six SSNs, Admiral Tripathi had said that the CCS has given approval for two nuclear attack submarines. “As per our in-house capabilities, we feel that 2036-37 is a very realistic time frame for the first one to be inducted and may be a couple of years for the second one,” he had said.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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