While indicators of urban demand are growing at a sharp pace, rural consumption is in slow lane. However, manufacturing, mining and construction have all seen double-digit growth.
Indian govt's status paper presents a consolidated picture of country's debt position & emphasises the need to improve liquidity in the debt market by diversifying the investor base.
In Rajasthan & Telangana, inflation remains above 6%, while Chhattisgarh & MP see relief. Despite variations, political parties in all states assuring voters of subsidies, cash transfers.
Capital expenditure of 23 states grew by 52% in April-September 2023 over same period last yr, but discontinuation of GST compensation, tapering of grants could weigh down some states.
Urban consumers are more optimistic about current economic conditions, while those in rural India are more so about expectations of 1-yr ahead income, economic & business environment.
Rising oil prices and muted second quarter financial performance of key IT sector companies are other sources of potential volatility for Indian markets.
Index of Industrial Production data shows production in several sectors lower than 12 yrs ago. This may be true for some sectors, but also implies data collection process needs an update.
Conflict in the Middle East could upset assumptions & forecasts and, if it escalates, disrupt the oil markets. For India, it could raise worries on inflation, put pressure on the rupee.
It will attract more foreign funds and support diversification of investor base. Continued focus on macro-stability and fiscal prudence will be crucial to navigate associated challenges.
Data for 2022-23 shows households’ reliance on borrowings has increased not only to finance consumption, but also to purchase or construct property. Vehicle loans also saw an increase.
India's projects related to BIMSTEC, Look-East-Act-East and Indian Ocean Rim Association could suffer a setback, impacting trade with South Asia and the South-South Cooperation agenda.
While global corporations setting up GCCs in India continue to express confidence in availability of skilled AI engineers, the panel argued that India’s real challenge lies elsewhere.
Without a Congress revival, there can be no challenge to the BJP pan-nationally. Modi’s party is growing, and almost entirely at the cost of the Congress.
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