That’s what Narendra Modi has to do and launch defence modernisation like Rajiv Gandhi in 1985-89, but with lessons learnt. There are political risks, but isn’t that what holding public office is all about.
Bofors is the only gun in history to have won an election all by itself. Since we also like to say it is the man behind the machine that matters, V.P. Singh was also no mean performer at the gunsights.
He launched his challenge to destroy Rajiv with the Allahabad by-election in 1988. The seat had been vacated by Amitabh Bachchan, facing Bofors allegations. Singh campaigned on a motorcycle across the burnt out plains of rural Allahabad, stopping at villages, making a short point and carrying on. True shoot-and-scoot campaigning.
His message was simple: your homes have been burgled. How? When you buy a packet of bidis or a matchbox, a part of the few annas you pay goes to the government as tax. It’s from that tax that the government runs your hospitals, schools and buys weapons for your army. So, if somebody steals a part of that money of yours, what do you call it if not a burglary in your home?
It was brilliant so far. Except, he added two more things. One, the usual political hyperbole: the names of the Bofors “chors” (thieves) are on this slip of paper in my (kurta) pocket, so wait till I come to power.
And second, soldiers are shocked they’ve been given a gun which fires backwards, killing them instead of the enemy. Now, nobody was fooled by this. But the crowds were greatly amused.
It’s been 30 years. Nobody has been caught or punished for Bofors kickbacks. Everybody then charged, either in inquiries or folklore, is dead. The gun has performed brilliantly. It saved the day in Kargil, and not because it fired backwards. It remains the mainstay of the Artillery.
In the 30 years since, not one more Bofors has been ordered, not one manufactured although lately some prototypes called ‘Dhanush’ have been attempted. Such is the stigma that we got no more Bofors since then, no spares, no ammunition, nor any other guns, recovered no illegal commissions, sent nobody to jail.
You want me to tell you something to make us Indians feel more stupid: we named a major New Delhi avenue (a section of the Outer Ring Road) after Olof Palme who, as Swedish prime minister, struck the Bofors deal with Rajiv.
In polite language, we’d describe India’s defence purchase record as na khuda hee mila, na visaal-e-sanam (I got neither the God nor a look at my lover). Somewhat more apt though, is the story of the village idiot who was caught stealing onions. The panchayat asked him to choose his punishment: a hundred shoe-beating, or eat a hundred onions. The idiot chose the latter, gave up after 10 onions, switched to shoe-beatings, couldn’t endure after 10 so switched back to onions. And so on. He ended up having most of both. This is a fairer description of how India has managed its defence acquisitions post-1977. We take that year as a cut-off because India elected its first non-Congress government then and it also saw a departure from the by now settled practice of buying only Soviet equipment.
The first system the Janata government explored was the Anglo-French Jaguar, in the category then called Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft (DPSA). Its rival was the Swedish Saab-Viggen. There were immediate noises of kickbacks as rival agents thrived planting stories on journalists. This launched the phenomenon of “greenhouse” journalism in reporting defence purchases.
The Jaguar too became controversial, was more or less dumped by subsequent governments and never reached its initially imagined force levels. As to how good and capable the aircraft is: even today, 40 years later, the IAF employs 100-plus of these Jaguars. The description flying coffin will also feature in the archives.
Following this, Indira Gandhi returned to the Soviets. Until Rajiv changed the equation radically. It isn’t the most popular thing to say these days, and I risk the wrath of the Bofors generation, but the only real, determined tri-service modernisation in our history was during the Indira-Rajiv era. The defence budget was taken above 4 per cent of GDP against the norm of two or under.
The era saw a variety of systems being bought and inducted – Mirage-2000s from France, Bofors from Sweden, Milan and Matra (French) missiles and Type-209 submarines from Germany. It also included purchases of the MiG-25 trisonics, TU-142s, Il-76 heavy-lift and AN-32 medium transports. Each one became (or was made out to be) some kind of a scam. So each system remained at the initial purchase level. There was no real transfer of technology, no co-production, no realisation of optimal force levels.
Rajiv also bought large volumes of Soviet equipment, from BMP armoured fighting vehicles, new Kilo submarines and took a nuclear sub (the first Chakra) on lease. He paid for all this with the loss of power. I bet there were kickbacks and scams, but the cruel fact is even if India goes to war now, a lot of the equipment it fields would have been ordered by Indira-Rajiv or, later, followed up by Narasimha Rao.
It is a tough point to make, and it will hurt. But the BJP governments’ record in making defence acquisitions is dismal. Vajpayee, hit by the so-called coffin-gate (a purely imaginary scam) bought little, except war-time top-ups. Much was expected of the Modi government. So far its only order of any size is a mere 36 Rafales, slashed from 126 negotiated by the UPA. The rest is just continuation of the few orders the previous government made, treading cautiously just as A.K. Antony would – I had described his approach to defence purchases as “wrapped-in-latex” then. And there is much talk, Make in India and what not. So much talk, and all hot air. Funnily, it’s the BJP that carries the Bofors phobia on arms purchases.
An uncompromising posture on defence and filling up the acquisition gaps were among Narendra Modi’s most forceful campaign propositions. The balance sheet after three-and-a-half years is empty. The fear, indecision and lack of focus is evident in the fact that the Modi government has had four defence ministers already: Manohar Parrikar, Nirmala Sitharaman and Arun Jaitley for extended spells twice.
The one deal it signed, Rafale, is now under attack. It will test Modi’s nerve. Would he have the courage to say: I and my government (unlike Rajiv saying neither I nor any member of my family) have done nothing wrong, persist with the purchase and in fact, enlarge it? The IAF, otherwise, will be reduced to an insignificant force. Even the Su-30s are now almost 20 years old. He has to move on the rest too, for all three forces, or history will judge him poorly and his promises as campaign-bluster. The debate on Rafale has now brought back all the old jargon and mantras, the most ridiculous of which is that catch-all nonsense: transfer of technology (ToT).
For six decades, HAL and other defence PSUs have assembled imported systems with plenty of ToT. Yet, barring a helicopter they’re incapable of using any of this brilliant, transferred technology to produce anything of use. We are still ordering, cancelling, re-ordering and cancelling purchases of infantry rifles, shoulder-fired or Man-Pad missiles, flak-jackets and other basic equipment. ToT over the decades, has been nothing short of all boll****. I refrain from using the remaining four letters as we do not use it in conventional journalism. Does Modi have it in him to ensure that India buys what it needs, and stop the “banana republic” (humko yeh bhi banana hai) charade?
Either he takes the risks Rajiv took, and launches a defence modernisation to rival the 1980s. Or, given dwindling force levels, he should call Xi Jinping and General Qamar Bajwa, settle Kashmir and Arunachal, sign a treaty with the Americans/NATO to protect what remains of India and, like the Japanese after World War-II, commit to limiting India’s defence budget to 1 per cent of GDP.
Why even 1 per cent then? Because you might need some to fight the Maoists in our underbelly. And some for Republic Day parades and for the ministers to have their weekend photo-ops at military bases.
Well, If Government is honest, there should be no fears to take a call, If Government is corrupt, they will cover their tracks and trail like all previous Governments. We need to insure security of the nation and decisions must be taken
Dear Abhiman,
You are missing the point completely. Tejay is a short range interceptor and cannot carry deep penetration bombing of Mirage. You are right in the sense that AF wanted a better Mirage. Rafale is a better mirage, LCA is a better Mig 21. MMRCA translates to an aircraft category that is not as light as Mig 21( or LCA) and therefore can carry bombs for ground support and precision strike. MMRCA is also required to be lighter than Su30MKI, the ‘heavy’ fighter who will be in air a lot longer to provide air supremacy as Jaguar/Rafale do their job against ground.
All of them are multirole, but i am talking about principal usage here.As for inducting more Tejas, almost 180 additional Mig21/27 are retiring by 2025 – government replace them. The problem is that 110 odd extra jaguars are also out of way and MMRCA is required for that. And this is additional requirements from now which is already short by a total of 200 planes, with 100 odd in MMRCA catagory
Dear Shekhar,I think you have forgotten ULH which has been signed for the Artillery,so is the K9 Thunder, also for the Air Defence We have signed a Regt worth of the latest AD Missiles. You have painted a very dismal picture which may not be very accurate
Indeed a brilliant article. Mr Modi can do it and he must. This is the time of test, he must shed any fears whispered in by the bureaucracy and take bold steps, that is what he is known for too. In his natural self, he must create an atmosphere of dominance for rest of diplomacy to work.
Too true, Govts have neither the wisdom not dedication to go thru with strategic purchases, not the sense that DRDO is only fit to manufacture shoes, and bad ones at that.
Neither Pak nor China or counter insurgents would put their heads up if our defence forces and para militaries were run with common sense, not by political hacks with no credentials.
Fringe radicals, political goons and trash talking politicians along with MoD and DRDO babus must be sent to forefront of border skirmishes and counter terrorist ops.
Congress ruling had cripple the Indian Army. Army had to ask congress before putting a bullet in a rifle. Army moral and strength is their weapons. In order to defend, you need good arms and ammunition. He is trying to get both. As congress was deeply involved in a scam in the past, they are well informed have to fabricate scam. However, in Modi’s case, he had no sister Maria in Italy or no Swiss account. He is not flying to London to close the deal of scams. Rahul was given a role of Kejri. He has to point finger on a regular basis against Modi. If people believe him then they are stupid. Indian Army and Indian needs to be very strong to safe guard against terrorism from neighbors. Modi is and will take whatever challenge he has to face to strengthen the army. Congress will take last suggestions stated in this article because it leaves more money for them to rob.
With nuclear deterrence in place, there really is no existential threat to India’s tetritorial integrity. We should with the Chinese and the Pakistanis, not to give away Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir, of course, but to create a trialteral understanding that allows South Asia to prosper, like ASEAN next door. SAARC is completely dysfunctional. Invite China to join as a full fledged member, work out fair modalities for us to join BRI. Look at the state of our education and healthcare, the number of stunted children and anaemic women, reconsider the priorities that will make us a great nation, not a great power.
Ia this shekar gupta?? Well he hit it very hard.. but in this media savy world old Rajiv days are gone… It might take llong days to repreport during bofors time… but the audacity to milk that issue sill lingers and wins elections… but the same if you try doing now… very same day ooo moment there will be celebrations in opposition camps… cause PM itself makes his one way correspondence after every move or purchase he makes… so flow of backlash of a stupidity will be huge… well yes..protection or we call it outsourcing is your option he does have….
I think any government must focus on inducting indigenously made weapon systems. Unfortunately, this has not been happening because of one major factor : The armed forces clearly have an aversion to anything made in India, even when the indigenous alternative is technically superior to the imported one. A case in point is the Arjun, which beat the Russian T-90 in trails twice in ’08 and ’10. Yet, the Army sent DRDO on a wild-goose chase to incorporate 82 “improvements”. When, a few years later in 2015 or so, the Army came back with the Arjun Mark 2, the Army was still lackadaisical. A few days later, it has floated another global tender to import “next generation” tanks. DRDO, unfortunately is not a part of this project.
Similarly, the Tejas has clearly come of age now. Serving IAF pilots themselves have equated it with the Mirage-2000, which was what the IAF originally wanted in 126 numbers, post-Kargil (it had a stellar performance in bombing the peaks). But the IAF wants to float global tenders for new single engine fighters, on the premise that Tejas is small and light. The Swedish Gripen and the US F-16 are competing like mad for this tender. But the fact is that the Tejas Mark 1A, that will begin manufacturing next year, will be an improvement over the existing Tejas. After that, the HAL will begin manufacturing the Mark 2, which will be bigger and feature the same engine that the Swedish Gripen jet has. This will bring Tejas in the league of the foreign fighters that the IAF wants to purchase.
In any case, when the IAF plans to fly MiGs till 2025, what’s the harm in inducting more Tejas units ?
We all respect the soldier on the border, the pilot and the sailor. But the procurement departments of the Armed Forces have to be asked some very tough questions.
Dear Abhiman,
You are missing the point completely. Tejay is a short range interceptor and cannot carry deep penetration bombing of Mirage. Ypu are right in the sense that AF wanted a better Mirage. Rafale is a better mirage, LCA is a better Mig 21. MMRCA translates to an aircraft category that is not as light as Mig 21( or LCA) and therefore can carry bombs for ground support and precision strike. MMRCA is also required to be lighter than Su30MKI, the ‘heavy’ fighter who will be in air a lot longer to provide air supremacy as Jaguar/Rafale do their job against ground.
All of them are multirole, but i am talking about pricipal usage here.As for inducting more Teaj, almost 180 additional Mig21/27 are retiring by 2025 – government replace them. The problem is that 110 odd extra jaguars are also out of way and MMRCA is required for that. And this is additional requirements from now which is already short by a total of 200 planes, with 100 odd in MMRCA catagory