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Friday, March 29, 2024
YourTurnSubscriberWrites: UP’s political weather changing. Each constituency has a divergent story

SubscriberWrites: UP’s political weather changing. Each constituency has a divergent story

The voter seems to have ultimately emerged as a victor in the campaign by parties in UP due to the rupturing of the big grand narrative, writes Nischai Vats.

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It is said that when a storm comes, big trees get uprooted and even the mountains start shaking but even the storm with such gravity isn’t able to uproot the grass growing on the ground. So, when someone walks barefoot on the political land of Uttar Pradesh, does his feet get exposed to prickly thorny bushes or the softness of the grass? Can Uttar Pradesh be measured through this parameter? Or because of the wind that blows, the political weather of Uttar Pradesh starts changing. Actually it is very difficult to see Uttar Pradesh from a single perspective; western UP shares its border with Delhi, eastern UP shares its border with Bihar, the area of ​​Bundelkhand touches Madhya Pradesh and with a cocktail of issues in the quiver, political pundits and pollsters will have a tough time in predicting the outcome of the 2022 UP election. The reason being there is no common theme binding all 403 seats except for the battleground becoming a bilateral contest between the BJP and SP. Each constituency has a divergent and contrasting story to narrate with three big factors ultimately deciding the outcome: caste, candidate and campaign.

The voter seems to have ultimately emerged as a victor in the campaign by parties in UP due to the rupturing of the big grand narrative, focal point shifting towards the issues of bottom of pyramid and demand side of politics taking command (political parties are supply side of Indian politics), as plury institutional and plury party polity has emerged with regional forces taking the centrestage, although still dominated by caste-based polity. Until last year, it was more of a sweep for the BJP due to its identity politics, development plank and CM Yogi Adityanath’s Hindutva pitch but lately, the exodus of BJP leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya to SP and Akhilesh Yadav’s shot to galvanize its core vote bank has opened the election. And when one tours the different regions, especially after the several phases of voting got over, the aspect of national issues to the lines of polarization seems blurred and get diluted to give caste and constituency specific candidates an upper hand. Rural voters seem to have shown more enthusiasm in the voting in comparison to urban voters but the pending issue with the Samajwadi Party will be of transfer of votes and the problem of plenty.

Although UP’s 2017 mandate was not a Hindutva mandate for the BJP but came on the back of its development vow, double engine power and delivery of central schemes with PM Narendra Modi as its mascot but the West UP was still boiling with the after effects of 2013 riots. In 2017 poll, the Muzaffarnagar riots were symbolically still in play and so much so that BJP went on to win 8 seats out of the 9 in the Muzaffarnagar constituency, which has around 40% Muslim population. But in 2022 elections’ first few phases concerning West UP, the Jat votes seem to have been split between the Rashtriya Lok Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party. A few pockets in the west UP also believe that if Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD doesn’t win a considerable number of seats in this election, the existential angst of Jat politics would see a curtain in the times to come. But the dynasty allegations by the BJP has also cornered the RLD-SP alliance as the former claimed that ‘vessels of larger party or family cannot be made to rule Uttar Pradesh’. And to counter these allegations on the political front, Akhilesh Yadav managed to float a rainbow of caste coalitions ahead of the polls which is now playing a protagonist role in determining the formation of government if the outcome is a fractured mandate. But the voters of UP have evolved in the last few elections including Lok Sabha and Assembly. Voters seems to have differentiated that Kushwaha, Jat, Thakur, Muslim etc leadership cannot be the subset of one personality or leader and it’ll be riveting to watch how the script is rewritten.

Now the other main contender in the UP election where Dalits (mainly Jatavs) profound their loyalty is BSP’s Mayawati, who has till now kept her cards close to her chest. Her role as kingmaker in this election could be game changer but it would be spellbinding to see, if the BJP/SP falls short of majority, then will Mayawati extend her support and repeat the history or will fall under the guise of political irrelevancy. Because of a lacking central issue, the number of swing voters remain high but political parties need to realign their strategies and be ear to the ground as the answer of triumph is eventually blowing in the wind.


Also read: Floating bodies in Ganga to ‘namak’ loyalty, how Modi-Yogi turned Covid to BJP’s advantage in UP


These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.

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