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The PMEAC report “400 Million Dreams!” reveals a decline in India’s migrant population to 40.21 crore in 2023, an 11.78% drop from the 45.58 crore recorded in Census 2011.
Also, majority [>75%] of predicted migration flows are within 500 kms of the origin.
It can be attributed to several factors. One key explanation is the Gravity Model of Migration, which highlights a proximity preference; people are more likely to migrate to nearby locations due to the lower costs and risks associated with shorter distances. Additionally, social and cultural comfort plays a significant role. Migrants often prefer relocating to places where they have existing social or familial connections, which helps reduce uncertainty. Moving to areas with similar linguistic and cultural environments also makes adaptation easier.
Furthermore, seasonal and temporary migration or “circular migration”, particularly common in sectors like agriculture and construction, typically involves short-distance movement. This allows migrants to return periodically to their villages, maintaining ties with their homes while pursuing economic opportunities. These factors together contribute to the prevalence of short-distance migration patterns.
Policy implications
There are several policy implications to consider, starting with the need for proper urban planning. As migration drives urban expansion, effective urban planning involving all stakeholders becomes crucial. A key focus should be on affordable housing, with priority given to innovative solutions like SAFE accommodations, as suggested by NITI Aayog. This approach has proven successful in China, where it contributed to an increase in the female labour force participation rate. Similarly, Vietnam offers an exemplary model with its ambitious plan to construct 1 million social housing units for low- and middle-income households in urban areas and workers in industrial parks, addressing housing affordability and inclusivity.
There is a pressing need for affordable healthcare services tailored specifically to migrants. One such example is the Awaz Health Insurance Scheme, an initiative by the Government of Kerala that provides health insurance coverage to migrant workers in the state. Additionally, there is a need to enhance public infrastructure, including the development of health centres, schools, and essential services such as clean water supply, sanitation, and waste disposal, to ensure the well-being and integration of migrant populations.
Another important aspect is ensuring ease of migration by improving transportation systems. State governments can focus on increasing the availability of public transport, such as expanding bus fleets and extending metro networks. For instance, Beijing’s metro system successfully expanded into suburban areas, catalysing development in less urbanized regions. Similarly, initiatives like the Delhi-Meerut Regional Rapid Transit System (RRTS) represent significant progress in enhancing regional connectivity. Governments should also prioritize the affordability of transportation, particularly for migrants. Developing low-cost suburban railways in emerging Tier-2 cities could be a transformative step. Additionally, increasing the number of trains during periods of high seasonal migration can address the specific needs of these populations effectively.
The government should also focus on reducing the migration radius from 500 km to 250 km, fostering balanced, inclusive, and decentralized development. This approach may counteract Ravenstein’s Migration Theory by promoting “reverse stepwise migration”, where development attracts people to smaller, localized hubs rather than distant metropolitan centres.
For example, Bihar’s State Capital Region development around Patna integrates smaller cities like Gaya, Muzaffarpur, and Bhagalpur into a cohesive economic framework. By promoting industries, logistics hubs, and enhanced connectivity, this initiative aims to curb rural outmigration to distant cities like Delhi and Mumbai. Similarly, Andhra Pradesh’s Amaravati Region adopts a cluster-based development model, focusing on IT and logistics hubs in nearby cities like Guntur and Vijayawada. This localized economic ecosystem reduces dependency on larger cities like Hyderabad and Bengaluru.
Such initiatives can also address social challenges by reducing the hate, discrimination, and crime faced by migrants, including those from regions like Jammu and Kashmir, fostering a more inclusive and harmonious environment.
This would also enable migrants to cast their votes without the burden of long-distance travel, which often impacts their wages and incurs additional costs.
Another policy recommendation is to align labour market training with the specific needs of local industries. For instance, under the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) in Jharkhand, training programs are designed to support the mining and steel industries, which are key to the region. Similarly, the Tamil Nadu Skill Development Corporation (TNSDC) conducts programs tailored to industries such as automobiles, electronics, and textiles, aligning with the industrial hubs in cities like Coimbatore and Madurai. This approach helps mitigate migration to distant cities like Bengaluru and Mumbai by creating local employment opportunities.
Aligned with the Lewis Model, migration is vital for development. However, focus should shift to balanced regional growth to reduce migration. When unavoidable, policies should prioritize short-distance moves with adequate facilities to support migrants.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.