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The deck
Donald Trump’s win in 2024 Presidential election in the USA comes in the wake of a heated campaign for the United States election, dominated by unprecedented incendiary rhetoric from both Republican and Democratic, camps. Albeit a thumping win for Trump by numbers, it has left the USA a divided nation and much of world on the edge. No more “No Trump” or the next four years.
“No trump” is a bid in the game of contract bridge.
The standard 52-card deck of playing cards is the most common pack of playing cards used today. The main feature of most playing card decks that empower their use in diverse games and other activities is their double-sided design, where one side, usually bearing a colourful or complex pattern, is exactly identical on all playing cards, thus ensuring the anonymity and fungibility of the cards when their value is to be kept secret, and a second side, that, when apparent, is unique to every individual card in a deck, usually bearing a suit as well as a alphanumerical value, which may be used to distinguish the card in game mechanics.
The cards are the same. It remains to be seen how the cards will be played in Trump 2.0. International relations are often compared with a game of chess; With Trump it will be more like a game of contract bridge. Open bidding will always precede contracts and all processes will be transactional
The contract
Trump is always appearing as disruptive. That is the Trump suit. Whereas the character of the cards does not change, the game is played according to what is revealed in the bidding. The hand is revealed to other players through the system of bidding. Trump 2.0 would upset international equilibrium by introducing uncertainty in the ecosystem, mostly because of unbridled rhetoric which may not necessarily always translate to action. Apparently, it will have huge implications for U.S. trade policy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans’ taxes and illegal immigration. Uncertainty will be Trump’s strong suit, though some of the proposals put forth in the run up to elections would require congressional approval. It is not a certainty for all policies even when the Republicans are controlling the Senate and the congress.
The game
Trump has floated the idea of increased tariffs to safeguard national interests. He suggests more tariff and less taxes will balance the budget better. He, probably, has not factored in that reducing taxes will ha devastating internal disruption and increasing tariffs will attract push back from other nations. China, within a week of Trump victory, has inaugurated a sea port in USA’s back yard Peru, ostensibly for trade. Expect more push backs globally before Trump’s inauguration.
Trump has vowed to increase U.S production of fossil fuels by easing the permitting process of drilling on federal land and would encourage new natural gas pipe lines. He has said he would reauthorize oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife refuge in Alaska. Though it remains to be seen whether the oil industry will follow through with exploration, drilling and production when the oil prices are at a low these days. Climate control, it may seem will cop it. Trump has also promised checking illegal and controlling legal immigration. He has said he will employ the National Guard, if necessary, federal troops to check illegal immigration, even setting up camps for deportation. Trump has also promised to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. He can possibly achieve this as on both fronts battle fatigue seems to have set in among all parties involved.
Internally, Trump has pledged to require U.S. colleges and universities to “defend American tradition and Western civilization” including punitive action on schools that practice racial discrimination. Abortion has been an emotive issue in the elections has said that federal abortion ban is unnecessary and the issue should be resolved at the state level. One novelty in Trump2.09 is the setting up of Department of Government Efficiency outside the government, to streamline efficiency and government expenditures. One may have to wait for some time to see how it functions.
Tail piece: Rhetoric shapes perceptions, action results in reality. When rhetoric and action are in consonance progress is made and seen to be made. Trump 2.0 is a space to watch for the unexpected. Will it be all rhetoric only or rhetoric and action. The hand as been dealt.
(The author is an Indian Army veteran and a contemporary affairs commentator. The views are personal.)
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.