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A lot has been said about Operation Sindoor, the Indian military action in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist attack, the operational aspects, the response from Pakistan and the Indian defence preparedness. This article looks at the global fallout and the way forward for India in the geopolitical chessboard. We look at the response of various countries and what trajectory will the relationship take with India.
USA – What was expected to be strategic silence from the USA which could have been explained away as tacit support, India did not expect the USA to go off script and end up involving itself in this conflict to India’s detriment. The Indian Trump fanbase has suddenly turned on him for not keeping away from this conflict, even if not outright support. What has got them so worked up is his repeated insistence of “trade for ceasefire” and “talks at neutral place”, leaving them feeling betrayed. This throws up so many questions about the level of trust that the Indian establishment can place on the American state in conflict situations. Lot of work needs to be done between Modi and Trump to reestablish the trust and come back to the normal state in the relationship, which has been in an upward trend since 2008.
China – Nothing better was expected from China, who have been shooting from Pakistan’s shoulders to destabilise India for decades. What has come as a surprise though is the bad press for China’s defence equipment systems, after taking the beating from rival India. Make no mistake, China would want to get its revenge for exposing its weaknesses for the world to see. This also puts the temporary truce in the India-China relationship in jeopardy.
Russia – Indian Forces and Russian equipment are a “match made in defence heaven”. Russian equipment and collaboration has once again proven its battle readiness and vindicates the trust India places on Russia. It can also be seen in the effort Modi went to address the airmen with the S-400 in the backdrop. Putin will be a happy man the next time Modi meets him, even if he wants to get close to China.
France & Israel – The two smaller yet significant poles of Indian defence will be cautiously optimistic in getting more Indian orders, perceived losses notwithstanding. They may be looking over their shoulders for America’s reactions and taking cues from them, but as individual defence exporters, they will be more than ready to fulfill the orders to come. Israel also has put its weight behind the morality of it all, having been at the receiving end themselves with Hamas.
Countries happy with the situation: Armenia, Greece, Philippines, Taiwan – These countries must be relieved in their investment in Indian defence products being battle tested against a nuclear armed country as they have their own axe to grind with the losers in this conflict. Armenia & Greece will be happy to see Turkiye get a bloody nose, while Philippines and Taiwan will take heart at failing Chinese defence systems. This gives Indian defence systems a much needed advertisement and these countries will be much more confident in Atma Nirbhar Bharat.
Countries not so happy: Turkiye, Qatar, Bangladesh, Azerbaijan – If you get into a conflict that is not yours to own, you better choose the right side. All these and a few others may do all they want to sway the narrative, but it is clear that the countries don’t have many friends left in India anymore. Turkiye is the worst hit – not only tourists are cancelling left and right and Turkish drones were shot down close to 100 % of the time, but there are reports coming in about Turkiye drone pilots from the Turkish Forces killed in the retaliatory air strikes on May 8-9th. Turkiye and Azerbaijan must know what happened to Maldives after the India Out Campaign. Bangladesh should also be worried about what India could do to their inexperienced Forces when push comes to shove. Qatar is also now put on notice for their backing of Pakistan.
Ambivalent: EU, Gulf, Iran, SAARC, 5 eyes (AUS, NZ, CAN, UK), Japan – All these countries have maintained a strategic silence urging for peace and talks, but they are mostly too engrossed in their own problems to care much about a perpetual conflict zone. They would take the USA’s lead and react accordingly so long as the nuclear threshold is not reached and their own Pakistani diaspora do not pressure them to take a contrary stand. To expect this conflict to change our relationship with any of them in any direction is frankly not tenable. They will continue as though nothing has happened.
In conclusion – While the relationship with most countries do not change course because of Operation Sindoor, the biggest geopolitical fallout in this incident from India’s perspective has been the Trump administration equating India to Pakistan and the following backlash in the biggest Trump supporters outside America – the BJP supporters. To outright undercut the Modi government’s success in Operation Sindoor by repeatedly stressing on trade to ceasefire, Trump may have done some serious damage to America’s reliability as a strategic defence partner for India. So, the Indian government’s next biggest foreign policy assignment would be to see this as a one-off issue and ensure the ever growing India-US ties does not get derailed by Trump’s penchant for playing peacemaker when it is not needed.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.