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When India enters the year 2050 there will be a 4th generation of youth, from 1947, who are in their prime of 25 years plus. Any perspective of the Nation’s future cannot be drawn without considering that generation.
The generation of 1947 has seen the worst and had the patience so as to not to disturb the socio-economic fabric of the nation and maintained some unity. The next generation seriously worked on whatever meritocracy provided them with and produced a generation of bright engineers & educated youth who are able to yield some sustainable growth. The system of meritocracy could not cater to all sections of society but left a large proportion deprived in one way or the other: thus, generating by 2050 an impatient 4th generation eagerly seeking opportunities. By the entry of 2050, the country will also see a surviving 3rd generation in their 40s and 50s aging but definitely in a position to guide & support the 4th generation: If this delicate social fabric of the nation & the family system is retained then India will gain demographic dividends in spite of the shortage of opportunities and resources needed.
By 2050 there may be changes in our political map: due to very unstable neighbors on three sides and an aggressive neighbor on the north. The question will be as a nation do we have the political will & military capability to take advantage of this situation and make some gains and if so what will be the outlook of the world on India? It may be difficult to answer but there is every possibility of borders undergoing some change and it need not be entirely through military campaigns, but more of alignments ( as we saw in the 60s & 70s) and India is capable of managing such events without affecting the World view of India’s soft power.
While the above happening for the political map of India, internally we may see either a Singapore-type democracy Or the evolution of new powers out of mergers & acquisitions as history has shown that re-organization is play of human nature either in business or in politics: and chances are very high for that to happen and 4th generation will see a political system that may be moderated to suit new needs. Even Federal structure may undergo changes that may dissolve a few linguistic states and create cluster states bound by common needs. The foundation for such changes will be laid during the tenure of the Government/s that rules between 2028-2032.
Whatever the outcome of politics, India as a Nation will grow as a balancing economic power if not a military power. By just compounding a growth factor of 5% from 2023 to 2050, the size of GDP growth from the present 3 trillion ( approx.) to 12+ trillion, barring any prolonged military conflicts elsewhere or any decades that were to be lost due to any reason whatsoever. By 2050 there will be only a few countries with USD 12 trillion size: and India will be one among them. While there will be definite economic growth, some of the serious questions are going to be how & from where this growth will come.
While growth may come from different sources, one very clear source of Economic growth will continue to be the internal demand of India’s large population. It is no doubt that manufacturing will grow, be it the investment from domestic industry or through FDI. The role of start-ups which was looking very promising till 2021 appears to be fizzling out: as a nation, we may not be able to expect star performers out of this category who can generate wealth for the nation: That way some wind out of the sails will be taken out as further FDI in the Startup ecosystem may flatten for some more time and the resulting shortage of economic growth has to be compensated from somewhere else. Planners already knew it and necessary work may already been underway. As the internal demand keeps growing and demand for goods & services increase, the rulers & planners have to liberalize the policies creating more Foreign-owned Indian companies (FOCC) which will act as engines of growth in Hitech sectors, fine chemicals, non-conventional energy, whereas core sectors like banking and financial services will remain within the Indian enterprise. Maybe we may see a good proportion of BSE index & NIFTY is shared by Foreign-owned Indian companies which will be listed on Indian Stock Exchanges. While many such acts keep happening at a macro level few subjects of high importance such as maintaining social order, public health & sanitation, pollution control, control of soil erosion, and drinking water availability will need serious attention for the future progress of the nation.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.
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