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Every exit poll has been blown to ashes! There should be some serious regulation put on these opinion polls, which should make it mandatory to reveal the sample size and other relevant data regarding the inputs taken. It does not seem like an accident, but a manipulation of many sorts, with far fetching impacts.
A scenario where BJP would be short of minimum number of seats to form government was not imagined by many. The popular perceptions were either NDA sweeping or INDIA making the minimum number of seats, which was hard done by the release of exit polls. I strongly believe that we are at a pivotal juncture in history, where either of the two previously mentioned results would have created ruckus.
Scene 1 – NDA Sweep
Having seen progressive increase in the abuse of power using all possible avenues, a third term would have been the death knell of Indian democracy. The keepers of the constitution are hell bent already. The media which could have been the corrective force have been strangle held, with all kinds of scrutiny, policing and cash deprivation. The Ram Mandir is made. Isn’t it iconic that the constituency which included Ayodhya belongs to INDIA alliance!!
We had Election Commissioners resigning and people not willing to take up the post, a month before the Election. The judicial system in our country is yet to deliver on “Justice delayed is justice denied.” We have more and more questionable verdicts from the judicial system, by the day.
The vast country and population India has, demands heavy resources for law enforcement. But, the matter of fact is, we are still lagging in grass-root amenities, calling out for development. This, considering we are a developing country with limited finance available, compounded with corruption has let, vandalism set in. If you have the know-how of power centers, you can get away with crime and corruption. This has been enabled by BJP, which would like to see the back of regional parties. Absolute power and crumbling of federal system is not desirable in India, where the dialect and culture varies in every 10 kilometer. Diversity is the only way to ensure representation for all class of people.
There is a lot of hue and cry about minority appeasement and doing away with reservations for reserved sectors. Had an NDA sweep happened, this might have well been enacted, the removal of existing reservations. I see the CAA thing as a precursor and setting up the stage for this particular matter. The focus is wrong according to me. There shouldn’t be bitterness for reservations. I believe what draws anger for those who do not get reservations is the fact that they are not provided with what they should be, what they rightly think is their entitlement. Services and amenities are still sub-par in most of India. Unemployment and inflation is going mostly unchecked. Capitalism is slowly eroding our financial structure, where a privileged set of people who are rich is getting richer. Constructive redistribution of wealth, which is also lost through corruption, has to be enforced. What ails the majority is not what the minority is getting as a reinforcement, to come up in the society. It is no secret that the underprivileged still remains underprivileged, even in this day and age.
Scene 2 – INDIA victory
This was a ruled out scene for most. But most does not count for each. The INDIA alliance got perilously close to a victory. Had they won; is a thought I am amused to entertain.
True, 2024 General election has been the homecoming of Rahul Gandhi. A man who was ridiculed and made fun off, has truly arrived. But, was he ready to take up the top job. Sure, the man is kind at heart and compassionate. But, all the hard realities and dynasty shrills he had to go through, has elevated the man. He was simply not there yet, when his name started to make rounds as the next PM, rival for Modi. The circumstance in which Rahul had to contest in Wayanad, were not ideal. But, I think that switch has a lot to do with the man he has become today. This was a seat, surely he didn’t have to worry about losing. This fact enabled him to concentrate on National politics without much pressure. Then 2018 Kerala floods happened. He did not disappoint his constitution when the hour of crisis arrived. He did not become another VIP MP, who abandoned the people who elected him, high and dry. Wayanad has an MP, and he shows up. Then came the Bharat Jodo Yatra, where he touched lives and actual people. We can all accuse of the photo-ops related to the stunt. But, he reached out and he was in the actual battle ground. You cannot not reform, if you actually engage with the common man.
But, was he ready to be the PM yet?I do not think so!! With all the troll machines, media, institutions in full fore against him, he would have crumbled, is my belief. Also, the work he has done has still not fetched him, or his party the prime spot without sweating for a day. Horse-trading of politicians has been at it’s vicious best in the past few years. This is not something very new to be surprised, as it started back in the 70s in India. But, the magnitude and non-requirement of ideology compliance, enabled purely by cold cash, is scary. Every ally of INDIA would have been lured by BJP and its partners at each opportunity that was presented, to pull down the government.
There is hope for INDIA with this result. They have reaped rewards for the hard yards put in. They all came out of their comfort zones and put in their trade-offs to face the election as one unit. A bit more of perseverance and getting rid of their own past complacency will do them a world of good in the long run.
We should not get caught in the mini frame and loose perspective of the bigger picture. Below graph is the cover of Ray Dalio’s “Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order“.
According to Ray Dalio, every nation goes through such cycles. Sure, we as nation are in the crest. But, I am not sure if we are in the minor crest, trough or on the descent for the major depression. But, it is inevitable the cycles would go on.
Maybe, the NDA has got a spank and an eye-opener for course correction. They cannot be in power alone and have to appease their partners, to remain in power. This, has not been their forte. They have thwarted away regional parties, whenever possible. The cult of Modi got them this far. But, the mere obsession of a man, his liking to see himself on every pillar and poster is beyond comprehension. One man cannot be expected to fill every role under the sun. But, if the man can put his body in line to push for the system to work irrespective of his intervention or not, Ambedkar would be proud. Clearly, the euphoria of Modi’s cult has died down. There is so much you can get away with photo-ops and quick fixes. Eventually, people have come to the realization that religion and sympathy would not win them bread.
The EVM Question
So, the popular rhetoric is that INDIA got these many seats. All your hues and cries about EVM are unfounded. That can still not go away. We still do not know the alternate if. In this video, is a subject expert explaining the possibilities of how EVMs can be manipulated. There can be umpteen sessions where you can prove the machine is tamper proof. Amusingly, below was what someone very important had to say a few years ago.
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