New Delhi: The United Kingdom goes to polls Thursday in an election widely expected to mark the end of the 14-year rule of the Conservative Party and the return of the Labour Party, now led by Keir Starmer.
If opinion polls are to go by, incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is not only set to lose the 80-seat majority the Tories won in 2019 but is headed for a historic loss of nearly 300 seats and to finish at roughly 64 seats, according to the Survation MRP polls published Tuesday.
The Conservatives first came to power in 2010 at the height of the global financial crisis, led by David Cameron and promising fiscal austerity. Since then, the party has won three elections, in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
The first Cameron-led government between 2010 and 2015 was the first coalition government in nearly 70 years in the UK, given its history of either of the two major parties winning majorities.
In 2015 and 2019, the Conservatives won majorities, 330 seats and 365 seats, respectively, out of the total 650 seats. But in 2017, after securing 317 seats and falling short of a governing majority by eight seats, the party required a confidence and supply agreement with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
According to the Survation MRP poll, in the 2024 elections, Labour will likely win 484 seats — a massive change in the party’s fortunes after being reduced to 202 seats in the 2019 polls.
Labour has consistently maintained a 20 percentage point lead in the opinion polls over the Conservatives this election season. The lead has not reduced even after a gruelling six-week campaign led by Prime Minister Sunak. Apart from Labour, the Conservatives are also facing a challenge on the Right from the Nigel Farage-led Reform Party.
On 22 May, Sunak called for a snap general election for July, defying expectations for an autumnal vote.
The general elections in the UK and India have held up the discussions and negotiations for the free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries since April.
In their manifestos, both the Labour and Conservatives have indicated their promise of completing negotiations of the FTA with India.
The negotiations’ framework, however, may change under a Starmer-led government, which could lead to further delays in a final agreement.
Conservative Party
Among the parties running in the elections, the Tories are the incumbents, winning 365 seats in 2019 under the leadership of Boris Johnson.
Currently led by Prime Minister Sunak, the Conservatives have run a campaign on cutting taxes, introducing a mandatory national service for all British citizens at the age of 18, boosting defence spending and removing illegal immigrants to Rwanda.
However, after five years in power, the Conservatives are hamstrung, having had three prime ministers from 2019 to 2024.
Johnson, the former Mayor of London, took over the reins after his predecessor, Theresa May, resigned, and he led the country through its exit from the European Union and the COVID-19 pandemic.
His message, “Get Brexit Done”, reverberated across the UK, ensuring a majority government for the Tories. However, Johnson’s term ended after several scandals, including “Partygate”.
“Partygate” started with reports of Johnson’s government officials holding parties at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, contravening the strict lockdown measures enforced by the administration across the UK.
Johnson resigned as a Member of Parliament in July 2023 over allegations of misleading the Parliament over these parties.
The Conservatives elected Liz Truss to replace Johnson, and her government lasted 49 days before the appointment of Sunak. Truss got ousted after a tax-cutting “mini-budget” that frightened the markets and led to the Conservatives losing support among its members.
Sunak has since been the Prime Minister, steering the country for nearly two years before the current elections.
Labour Party
Keir Starmer took over the reins of the Labour Party after its disastrous performance in the 2019 general election. Then led by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour could win 202 seats, a loss of 60 seats from the 2017 elections.
According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, Starmer and his party have since slowly climbed up in the opinion polls, overtaking the Conservatives in November 2021. The Labour lead has steadily increased since then, and it now has roughly a 20 percentage point lead over the Tories.
Labour has run a campaign based on one word — “change”. It has promised to cut waiting times for the National Health Service (NHS), ensure economic stability, recruit 6,500 new teachers, set up a border security command, and make the country a “clean energy superpower.”
Liberal Democrats
The Centrist party in 2010 governed in a coalition with the Conservatives, with its then leader Nick Clegg becoming the deputy prime minister of the UK. In that election, the Liberal Democrats won 57 seats in the House of Commons, heights it has not touched since.
In the 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections, the Centrist Party won 8, 12 and 11 seats, respectively. Its current leader, Ed Davey, has been running a different campaign, with stunts from bungee jumping to riding tractors and vintage cars across the UK.
According to media reports, Davey has promised to “knock down the Blue (Conservative) wall” across rural UK.
The Centrist Party, which has been finishing third traditionally, could come close to finishing second and beating out the Conservatives for the Leader of Opposition position in this election.
According to Survation, the Centrist Party will likely win 61 seats, three fewer than the Conservatives.
Reform UK
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, the face of Brexit, is potentially seen as winning voters from the Conservatives. Founded in 2019, Reform UK may win roughly seven seats in the House of Commons.
Reform UK has promised increased recruitment for the Army, reduced taxes on the purchase of property, detention and deportation of illegal immigrants and scrapping of thousands of regulations that the UK has kept after exiting the European Union.
In recent weeks, however, Reform UK has been facing scandals of supporting racists and misogynists as candidates for the elections.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswsami)
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