New Delhi: The theatre of conflict in Ukraine has now moved east to the Donbas region.
As ThePrint reported earlier, Russia has refocussed its energies on the Donbas axis; it has also completed its withdrawal from the capital, Kyiv, and the northern Chernihiv and Sumy axis.
The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said Tuesday that the conflict would intensify in the east of the country over the next few weeks. Russia’s focus remains on attacking Ukrainian positions around the separatist-backed cities of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Russia is consolidating positions in the northeast, while the south remains quiet, for now.
These are the updates from Russia’s five main axes of attack in Ukraine — the capital, Kyiv; Chernihiv and Sumy in the north; Kharkiv in the northeast; Donetsk and Luhansk in the east; and Kherson in the south.
Kyiv axis (capital) & Chernihiv and Sumy axis (north)
Reports suggest that Russia has completed its withdrawal from both the Kyiv and the Chernihiv and Sumy axes. Meanwhile, US defence officials told Reuters that while Russia had withdrawn from Kyiv and Chernihiv, it does not mean that the threat has completely disappeared, as Moscow’s long-term goals remain unclear.
As of Tuesday (12 April), no significant activity was being reported from Sumy.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think-tank, reported that while the troops have been withdrawn from Kyiv and Chernihiv, they have yet to be deployed back onto the battlefield.
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Kharkiv axis (northeast)
On Tuesday, Russian forces reorganised in Kharkiv to focus their attacks on the city of Izyum.
A partial blockade of the city of Kharkiv continued, while the Russian forces used rockets and grenades to attack residential areas.
Multiple unspecified units of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army have been deployed to Izyum to conduct offensive manoeuvres.
Donetsk & Luhansk axis (Donbas region in the east)
The UK’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russian troops have started withdrawing from Belarus to be posted in Donbas for an aggressive assault.
The ISW reports that the Russian Army conducted some attacking manoeuvres in the cities of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna in the Luhansk region. They relied mainly on artillery attacks for this offensive.
The Ukrainian Army has also declared that there had been limited conflict in other parts of Donetsk Tuesday.
The presence of Chechen forces in the Donbas region has been reported on social media, geolocating them in Rubizhne in Luhansk Monday (11 April).
Further reports also described heavy fighting in Mariupol, with Russia alleged to have used chemical weapons there.
Most analysts assess that the future of the war will be determined by how the conflict unfolds in the Donbas theatre.
Many believe that both sides could suffer heavy losses, making it untenable for them to launch offensives or counter-offensives against one another. Such a scenario could lead to a months-long stalemate, ruining any chance Russia has of taking over the region swiftly.
Kherson axis (South)
According to the latest updates, the Russian forces have not made significant gains in the southern axis. However, they have focussed on enhancing defences and conducting aerial reconnaissance in Kherson.
(Edited by Manoj Ramachandran)
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