New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to pick Russia for his first official visit overseas since assuming a third term is strategically important to ensure the Russia-China alliance does not hurt India’s interests. It also comes amid a “fluid moment” in international affairs where all eyes are on Washington, which may see a potential change in the White House, according to experts and people familiar with the matter.
In the past, Modi has looked towards the neighbourhood as his first port of call upon assuming the prime ministership.
This will be the first time in nearly a decade that Modi will travel to Moscow. He had visited Russia in 2019, but that was to Vladivostok.
Earlier this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked that no topic is “off-limits” when PM Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in the country from 8 to 9 July.
The visit will also resume the annual India-Russia summit, which has been on ice since the war in Ukraine began. The last time the summit was held was in December 2021, when Putin visited India for its 21st edition.
Engaging with Russia and ensuring its alliance with China doesn’t work against India’s interests is an important factor behind Modi’s upcoming visit, people familiar with the matter told ThePrint.
They cited the deepening of the Russia-China military relationship, advanced technology and potential intelligence-sharing as factors that may work against New Delhi’s interests.
Yet, there are no indicators as yet to substantiate these apprehensions, according to two former Indian ambassadors to Russia ThePrint spoke to. Hit by western sanctions, Russia may have its own compulsions in cosying up to China, but India should be wary of hyphenating the two, they said.
In 2017, top Russian official Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation, said Russia would always be India’s strategic partner despite New Delhi’s growing military purchases from the US, France and Israel, adding that there are certain defence technologies that “no one else will give” India except Moscow.
In June 2020, days after the Galwan Valley clash, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Moscow to attend the 75th Victory Day Parade, during which he concluded a defence deal to purchase 33 fighter jets and other arms upgrades amounting to $2.4 billion.
Ahead of this visit, Chinese state-owned media outlet People’s Daily had issued a post on Facebook discouraging Moscow from supplying arms to New Delhi.
Russia has also been a key player amid tensions between India and China. It was in September 2020 in Moscow that Rajnath Singh met with his Chinese counterpart General Wei Fenghe on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers’ Meeting.
This was the first direct face-to-face talk between India and China since border tensions erupted in May that year.
‘Fluid moment in global affairs’
According to C. Raja Mohan, professor, Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, the timing of Modi’s visit to Russia is also key.
“Russia is an important relationship that India wants to maintain. There is currently a fluid moment in international relations and the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House has triggered a ‘crisis mode’ in many countries. Therefore, Prime Minister Modi’s decision to visit Moscow and engage with a major power at a time of uncertainty makes sense,” he told ThePrint.
The US presidential elections, which will take place in November, will see US President Joe Biden seek a second term against his Republican rival Donald Trump.
Mohan also pointed out that Modi hasn’t visited Russia in the past five years and Moscow has become an important player for India’s energy and resource security.
Amid the Ukraine war, New Delhi ramped up imports of Russian crude oil despite US and European Union sanctions. US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti has clarified, however, that India’s purchases of Russian oil don’t amount to a “violation”.
According to Rajorshi Roy, associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Modi’s upcoming visit to Moscow “reinforces the importance of Russia in India’s geostrategic calculus” and will be an opportunity to reassess the trajectory of ties.
“It is in India’s interest to try to wean Russia away from China by adding more pillars to the mutually beneficial India-Russia relationship and by staying relevant in each other’s foreign policy priorities,” he told ThePrint.
Russia remains an important player in Central Asia, Iran, China and Pakistan, and its actions can have a “bearing” on India’s interests in these countries and regions too, he added.
Roy regularly participates in track 2 dialogues between Moscow and New Delhi.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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