New Delhi: A majority of Indian Americans, about six in 10, intend to vote for Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris next Tuesday, while three in 10 will vote Republican Donald Trump, a new survey by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has found.
The research paper ‘Indian Americans at the Ballot Box: Results From the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey’, published Monday, surveyed 714 Indian American citizens and 127 non-citizens between 18 September and 15 October. Indian Americans are the second largest immigrant group in the US after Mexican Americans, with about 5.2 million people living in the country. At least half are citizens.
While the survey shows that a majority of Indian Americans plan to vote for Harris, the Republicans have chipped away at the Democratic lead in the last four years among men born in the US, and even Hindus.
As the two candidates plunge into the last seven days of campaigning before the 5 November presidential elections, Harris holds a single percentage point lead nationally over Trump as on 28 October, according to The New York Times/Siena poll.
In the seven battleground states — the key states to an electoral college victory, which are Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — the two candidates are even in four, while the Republican nominee has a percentage point lead in three.
Support for Democrats down since 2020
While about one in two (47 percent) Indian Americans still identify themselves as Democrats, the number has come down from the 2020 survey, where 56 percent had said they supported the party.
A large number of Indian Americans now view themselves as Independents (26 percent), having grown 11 percent from 2020’s 15.
However, even the number of Independents is higher than those Indian Americans who are outrightly Republicans (21 percent). This number has not improved since 2020.
Looking at the data on a seven point scale — Strong Democrat, Not Very Strong Democrat, Lean Democrat, Independent, Lean Republican, Not Very Strong Republican, Strong Republican — around 57 percent surveyed leaned towards or strongly supported the Democrats, while 27 percent swayed towards the Republican Party.
Only 14 percent were in that sense true “Independents”, preferring neither, while the other two were neither Democrat, Republican or Independent.
In this seven-point statistic, however, the number of Indian Americans who tend to support the Democratic Party has fallen by nine percentage points since 2020 — 66 percent to 57 percent.
While the trend found by the Carnegie survey suggests that a number of Indian Americans are moving away from the Democratic Party, Liberal or Left supporters have increased in the last four years.
A total of 55 percent of Indian Americans now identify themselves on the Left of the ideological spectrum — 15 percent are extremely liberal, 31 percent liberal and nine percent slightly liberal. Around 18 percent say they are on the Right of the political spectrum.
The number of those identifying as Liberals has grown from 47 percent in 2020, while those who are Conservatives have fallen from 23 percent in 2020 to 18 percent.
Those who view themselves as Moderates have seen a slight decrease in the last four years — 29 percent in 2020 to 26 percent in 2024. There are a number of explanations why Democrats supporters have decreased while the Liberal is up.
One of the reasons, according to Carnegie, is the dissatisfaction with Harris and also the inability to embrace the new Trump-populism of the Republican Party, which has shifted away from the 1980s era of Reaganite conservatism.
Demographic disparities & views on policy
Support for Trump is much higher among Indian American men born in the US than those who are naturalised citizens, in comparison to other demographic identifiers, the survey found.
At least four in 10 Indian American men (39 percent) intend to vote for Trump, even though the majority (53 percent) will vote Harris. Indian American women are, however, steadfastly for Kamala Harris, with only 22 percent preferring Trump.
Trump is also doing better with younger voters than elders. At least seven in 10 of Indian Americans above the age of 50 have identified themselves as those who will vote for Harris, while around 23 percent in that age group will vote Trump.
However, for those below 50, at least 35 percent have indicated a voting preference for Trump, which is significantly higher than those above the age of 50. Similarly, Trump finds more support in the Hindu community.
Around 35 percent of Indian Americans who are Hindu indicated a preference for Trump, while only 27 percent non-Hindu would vote for him.
Even on policy issues, there are large differences between Indian Americans who identify as Democrats or Republicans. For example, 37 percent of those self-identifying as Republicans have inflation, prices and jobs as their top issues, while for Democrats it is 24 percent.
Abortion is also on the minds of around 19 percent of Indian American Democrats, while only 5 percent Republicans think it important.
The survey also explores why Indian Americans may not support the Republican Party, with the top reasons being — intolerance of minorities (18 percent) and not supporting the individual’s views on abortion (18 percent).
Another major reason for lack of support is the influence of evangelical Christianity within the organisation. At least 16 percent of Indian Americans said this was among the top reasons to not support the party.
(Edited by Tikli Basu)
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Indian Americans are, typically, very well educated people and fall in high income category. They are very similar to Chinese/Korean Americans in their socio-economic profile.
There is absolutely no reason for them to club themselves with other minority communities (such as Hispanics, Blacks, etc.). Simply because there is nothing in common which can bind these disparate communities together.
As such, it is natural for them to veer towards Republicans.