While the 1970s and 2022 shocks supercharged US inflation, a sustained conflict with Iran would primarily hit the American economy through slower growth.
The Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor, it may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession.
Oil companies and their political allies are taking the onus off themselves to make changes to their fossil fuel production, consumption and exploitation practices.
The global benchmark’s prompt timespread was 42 cents in backwardation compared with as high as $4.64 in early March just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Iran faces a choice that is larger than the immediate conduct of war. It can continue the logic of short-term escalation, or it can think in the longer historical frame.
The Nirouyeh Vijeh Pasdaran Velayat, or NOPO, was the only force Ali Khamenei trusted.It was founded in 1991 and is more feared than the Revolutionary Guards.
Rating democracies is a tricky business. I am only using the simple metric of who in the Indian subcontinent has had the most peaceful, stable, normal political transitions and continuity.
COMMENTS