Return of El Nino may result in a weak monsoon, says private weather forecaster. IMD had said that most parts of India would experience above normal temperatures from March to May.
Monsoon rains in India are expected to be 94% of the long-term average, said private weather forecasting agency Skymet, retaining its previous view of sub-par monsoon.
Even if the El Niño, which can cause a monsoon deficit in India, does set in as predicted, other weather phenomena could potentially mitigate its effects.
Like tree rings, their layers record the region’s rainfall history. They also carry a warning about the potential for multiyear droughts in the future.
High exports driven by demand from China led to shortage in country, where broken rice is used to make ethanol & as cattle feed. Lower & delayed planting likely to hit production too.
The intense rain was brought about by rapid global warming & localised weather pattern. But experts say reason for floods is lack of drainage & infrastructure, not intensity of rain.
IMD data shows east, northeast India had 18% rainfall deficit between 1 June and 10 August. But central and southern regions saw excess of 24% and 28%, respectively.
In 5 east UP districts, where rice is primary rain-fed crop, the overwhelming sentiment is despair. For most, planting has been delayed by over a month, which means a drop in yield.
The second half of the southwest monsoon is expected to be ‘normal’ for the country as a whole, but regional variations will persist, Indian Meteorological Department predicts.
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