An El Nino is likely to set in during monsoon. But IMD’s forecast says that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may simultaneously develop that could counteract the effects of El Nino.
This would make it the fifth straight year of normal or above normal summer rains that spur farm and overall economic growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy.
In its latest forecast, IMD says that monsoon will arrive on 4 June — four days later than usual. Monsoon usually arrives in Kerala by 1 June and lasts up to September.
Rains usually lash Kerala state around 1 June and cover the whole country by mid-July. Timely rains trigger planting of crops such as rice, soybeans and cotton.
IMD says any effect of El Nino on monsoon will be visible only during the second half of the season, adding that it’s not necessary it will lead to a bad monsoon.
Return of El Nino may result in a weak monsoon, says private weather forecaster. IMD had said that most parts of India would experience above normal temperatures from March to May.
Monsoon rains in India are expected to be 94% of the long-term average, said private weather forecasting agency Skymet, retaining its previous view of sub-par monsoon.
Even if the El Niño, which can cause a monsoon deficit in India, does set in as predicted, other weather phenomena could potentially mitigate its effects.
Like tree rings, their layers record the region’s rainfall history. They also carry a warning about the potential for multiyear droughts in the future.
High exports driven by demand from China led to shortage in country, where broken rice is used to make ethanol & as cattle feed. Lower & delayed planting likely to hit production too.
Which humanitarian crisis should be prioritised, which words are ‘simple’ enough to avoid hurt feelings, or who is a ‘true Indian’, are not questions warranting court input.
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