Union Budget brings home to markets the unpleasant reality of fiscal dominance where RBI ends up prioritising deficit financing over its primary function of inflation control.
The Asia Society India Centre’s opening programme of 2026 focused on the book 'A Sixth of Humanity' and offered a counterpoint to India's rapid growth narrative.
If low inflation is interpreted as a success, fiscal ambitions will be limited. And if it is perceived as indicative of weak demand, the policy response will have to be suitably adjusted.
Based on inflation figures for the last three months, RBI is expected to look for confirmatory evidence that can mark the beginning of a sustained decline in core inflation.
While alignment with the inflation target is gradually occurring, incoming data will provide greater clarity and confidence on the disinflation path, the RBI said.
Apart from these factors, in the new year, food prices will continue to be vulnerable to global uncertainties & weather events, while household borrowings from banks will remain steady.
After a 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% innext quarter before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024.
Kumar and Amma's actions matter. In a country where collective complacency has calcified into a survival strategy, watching someone say 'no' feels radical.
UCBs accounted for 1.8% of total industry credit in September 2025—down from 2.2% five yrs ago—showing that they are losing ground to faster PSU banks.
This is the game every nation is now learning to play. Some are finding new allies or seeing value among nations where they’d seen marginal interest. The starkest example is India & Europe.
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