In 1st forecast since March, World Meteorological Organisation has indicated chance of EL Nino onset, likely to 'fuel higher global temperatures', is 70-80% during July-September period.
IMD says any effect of El Nino on monsoon will be visible only during the second half of the season, adding that it’s not necessary it will lead to a bad monsoon.
Monthly rainfall is expected at 115% of the long-term average based on the India Meteorological Department, posing risks for summer-sown crops such as rice and the planting of wheat.
The second half of the southwest monsoon is expected to be ‘normal’ for the country as a whole, but regional variations will persist, Indian Meteorological Department predicts.
IMD said 'moderate to severe' thunderstorms & 'cloud-to-ground lightning' are likely in Uttarakhand, UP, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand Thursday & Friday.
Our most accurate models can predict weather only up to five days in advance, with nearly a 90 per cent probability of getting the next 24 hours spot-on.
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