Mumbai: With the Lok Sabha election dates out, all parties are busying themselves in finalising candidates, giving finishing touches to alliances and warming up rivals willing to defect. There is one leader, though, who finds himself lonely in this entire exercise, still undecided on whether his party should even contest the upcoming polls — the firebrand Raj Thackeray and his once raucously unstoppable political outfit, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
The MNS, which tasted dizzying success in its initial years, has been on a downward spiral since 2014. Hoping to resurrect, Thackeray was initially hoping to be part of the opposition’s alliance in Maharashtra by piggybacking on the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
However, he is now evaluating his options of either going it alone or not contesting at all, multiple party insiders said.
While party workers as well as political watchers were hoping for an indication from Thackeray during his speech on 9 March, when the MNS turned 13, still uncertain, the leader chose to fight shy of it.
“I haven’t even met mediapersons in the past several days, but they themselves decide in their newspapers that I have asked for two seats, three seats, I am meeting this person now. I will take whatever decision I have to take and I will disclose that to you later,” Thackeray said at the foundation day event.
After the MNS’s debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Thackeray had vowed to not contest general elections henceforth, saying national parties should focus on parliamentary polls and leave state elections to regional outfits.
“We are having a few rounds of meetings over the next two days and hope to take a final decision soon,” said a senior MNS leader.
Also read: In a first, blunt Raj Thackeray to interview the cautious Sharad Pawar at Pune event
Courting the NCP
In the past, Thackeray used to severely criticise NCP chief Sharad Pawar through his speeches and cartoons. Over the past year, though, he has cozied up to the Maratha strongman.
Last year, Thackeray held a public interview with Pawar at Pune, had an hour-long conversation with Pawar during an Aurangabad-Mumbai flight as well as held a couple of informal meetings with the NCP chief. In February, Thackeray also held a meeting with NCP leader Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar’s nephew, for back-channel negotiations for a possible alliance.
The Congress and NCP have almost finalised an alliance for the Lok Sabha polls.
While NCP leaders are willing to accommodate the MNS, Congress leaders have vociferously said that there was no question of including the party, which had once gone on a rampage against Mumbai’s north Indian population, a key Congress vote bank.
“Yes, the Congress is opposed to us, but we have nothing to do with them. We are only dealing with the NCP,” said an MNS leader who did not wish to be named.
“MNS has traditionally only got anti-establishment votes. In 2009, that helped the Congress. Even now, all the votes we will get will be those that are anti-Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so it makes sense to support the opposition one way or the other,” added the MNS leader.
“The details are only known to Raj saheb. He has kept his cards to himself.”
Another senior MNS functionary and a close confidante of Thackeray, said, “At this point, it looks more likely that we might have to contest on our own strength. But we are still taking a call on whether it might make sense and if there is any political benefit in it for us.”
An NCP leader who did not wish to be named said, “The Congress is strictly opposed to MNS’ inclusion in the alliance. It is possible that Raj Thackeray may decide to not contest at all, and do something like what Hardik Patel did earlier by using the party’s machinery to support the opposition from outside.”
Also read: Uddhav Thackeray is the new Hamlet in Maharashtra politics
On a downward spiral
Thackeray launched the MNS in 2006 after quitting the Shiv Sena over Bal Thackeray’s decision to anoint his son, Uddhav, and not Raj, as his successor.
The MNS, which espoused the ‘sons of the soil’ ideology and ‘Marathi pride’ in a more emphatic and aggressive manner than the Shiv Sena, tasted quick success.
At one point in time, it even wrested the Shiv Sena bastions of Dadar and Mahim in the Mumbai civic polls and state assembly polls, respectively.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, it fielded 11 candidates and drew a vote share of 4.07 per cent of all valid votes polled in the state. None of its candidates got elected and one had to forfeit deposit, but the MNS got people to take notice by damaging the Shiv Sena’s prospects in many seats. In the assembly elections the same year, the MNS contested 143 seats, getting 5.71 per cent of the total vote share and having 13 of its MLAs in the Maharashtra assembly in its very first attempt.
However, soon after, the party’s fortunes dwindled.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the party supported Modi, but fielded 10 candidates and campaigned against the BJP’s ally, Shiv Sena. All ten lost their deposits and MNS’ vote share plummeted to 1.47 per cent of the valid votes polled in the state.
In the assembly elections that year, the party ambitiously contested on 219 of the 288 seats, forfeiting deposit in 209 seats, getting a vote share of just 3.15 per cent and dropping to one MLA in the state legislature from earlier 13.
Now, multiple party sources say, the MNS’s lone MLA — Sharad Sonawane from Junnar — too is on his way to the Shiv Sena.