The 5 constituencies that have always got Lok Sabha poll ‘prediction’ right

In the past five Lok Sabha elections, these 5 constituencies have voted for the party that has gone on to form the government at the centre.

Representational image | A view of Parliament building, New Delhi | Bloomberg News

New Delhi: The exit polls have predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in these Lok Sabha elections. But there is another indicator — unscientific as it may be — that tends to show which way the poll winds are blowing.

There are a number of constituencies in the country, dubbed the bellwether seats, that have been consistently voting for the party that has gone on to form the government at the centre.

ThePrint takes a look at the top five bellwether constituencies which in the last five Lok Sabha elections have had a 100 per cent strike rate in siding with the winning coalition or party that has gone on to take Delhi.

Valsad, Gujarat

Valsad, reserved for scheduled tribes, is one of the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. It has always voted for the party that has formed the government at the centre since 1975.

The constituency, which has 14.95 lakh voters from communities such as the Dhodiya, Koonkana, Varli, Koli and OBCs, is considered an excellent predictor on who will form the next government.

Sample this: In 1998, the BJP’s Manibhai Chaudhary won in Valsad and his party went on to form the government at the centre. When the Vajpayee-led BJP was up for re-election in 1999, Chaudhary repeated the feat, and the NDA went on to form the government again.

In 2004, the Congress’ Kishan Bhai Patel won from here while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) took power at the Centre. Patel was re-elected in 2009 even as the UPA retained power.

In 2014, at the peak of the Modi wave, the BJP’s K.C. Patel won by over 2 lakh votes. The NDA too took power with a clear majority.

This time, K.C. Patel has been pitted against Chaudhari Jitubhai of the Congress, a four-time MLA of Kaprada (ST) and is said to be a popular face.

The constituency, which voted on 23 April, recorded around 74.09 per cent voter turnout, the highest in Gujarat.

Faridabad, Haryana

Faridabad, an unreserved seat, is among the 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in Haryana.

In the last five Lok Sabha elections, Faridabad has placed its bets right.

In 1998, Chaudhary Ramchandra Bainda of the BJP won the seat and the party went ahead to form the government. Bainda won again in 1999 when the Vajpayee government managed a majority.

In 2004, despite exit polls ruling against the party, the Congress’ Avtar Singh Bhadana won the Faridabad seat as his party sprung a surprise to assume power at the centre. Bhadana retained the seat in 2009 as the UPA stormed back to power.

In 2014, the BJP’s Krishan Pal Gurjar defeated Bhadana as the Modi government took over. The two face off once again in 2019.

The constituency, which voted on 12 May, saw a 64.12 per cent voter turnout.

Ranchi, Jharkhand

Ranchi, the capital city of Jharkhand, has rightly predicted the winner nine out of 11 times since 1977.

The constituency, which has 16.48 lakh eligible voters comprising mainly of Kurmis, Vaishyas and other upper castes, has elected the BJP’s Ram Tahal Choudhary on five occasions — 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2014.

In between — in 2004 and 2009 — the seat was won by the Congress’ Subodh Kant Sahay.

Sahay, a former union minister in the UPA government, was defeated by almost two lakh votes in 2014.

This time around, Sahay was in the fray as a Congress candidate but Choudhary fought as an Independent after the BJP backed the Jharkhand Khadi Board chief Sanjay Seth. The BJP denied the 77-year-old Choudhary a ticket citing his age.

Mandi, Himachal Pradesh

Mandi, nestled in the Himalayas, is among the four Lok Sabha constituencies in the hill state.

The seat, which has mainly Rajputs and scheduled castes among its eligible 11 lakh voters, has backed the right party nine out of 11 times since 1977.

The constituency had been a bastion of the Congress till 1977, when in the ‘anti-Congress wave’, the seat was won by Ganga Singh of the Janata Party.

The seat went back to the Congress, when former Himachal chief minister Virbhadra Singh, a scion of the Bushehr royal family, won it in 1980.

The BJP first won the constituency in 1998, when Maheshwar Singh, head of the Kullu princely state, defeated the Congress’ Pratibha Singh, Virbhadra Singh’s wife. Maheshwar Singh retained the seat in 1999.

Pratibha Singh managed to wrest back the seat in 2004 when the UPA went on to form the government. Virbhadra then won the seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and when he vacated it to become the chief minister, his wife Pratibha Singh won the 2013 by-poll.

In 2014, the BJP’s Ram Swaroop Sharma defeated Pratibha Singh by almost 40,000 votes.

This year, Ram Swaroop Sharma faced off against the Congress’ Ashray Sharma — grandson of former telecom minister Sukh Ram.

Dharmapuri, Tamil Nadu

Dharmapuri constituency, in the north-western region of Tamil Nadu, is among the 39 in the state.

A predominantly agrarian constituency, Dharmapuri is a mix of a Tamil and Telugu speaking electorate and consists of Kapus, Lingayats, Vokkaligas as well as scheduled castes of Holeyas and Madigas.

A Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate has been elected from Dharmapuri in four of the last five elections.

In 1998 and 1999, when the NDA held power at the centre, the PMK was in a pre-poll alliance with the BJP.

In 2004, when the UPA was in power, the PMK had sided with the Congress.

When the PMK lost in 2009, the seat was won by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which was part of the Congress-led UPA.

In the last general elections, the PMK’s Ambumani Ramadoss emerged victorious. His party had allied with the BJP before the elections. Much like the seat, the PMK has also been dubbed as a “bellwether party” as it seems to successfully gauge the mood of the nation.

This year, the party has once again allied with the BJP but Ramadoss faces a stiff test from the DMK’s S. Senthil Kumar in Dharmapuri.