Mumbai: On its 60th foundation day, the Shiv Sena is on the verge of a second split in less than four years, with at least six MPs from the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction likely to jump ship and side with Eknath Shinde in the coming days.
The second split, if it comes to that, will put a question mark on Uddhav’s political future and act as a shot in the arm for Maharashtra Deputy CM Ekanth Shinde who engineered the earlier split in June 2022. It will also strengthen Shinde’s position, not just within the BJP-led NDA but the state’s politics.
Analysts ThePrint spoke to attribute the impending implosion in the Shiv Sena (UBT) to Uddhav’s leadership style, Aaditya Thackeray’s limited outreach beyond Mumbai, and party’s tactic of blowing hot and cold between Congress and BJP.
On the other hand, Shinde’s proximity to the BJP’s central leadership and growing stature in state politics has led to his party becoming the more promising option for local politicians.
“After this, Eknath Shinde’s political and bargaining power will increase in the state as well as in the Centre,” said political analyst Sanjay Patil.
“Whereas for Uddhav Thackeray this is a very difficult position. Especially after the local body polls, where Sena (UBT) didn’t get much success outside Mumbai, so on organisational level morale is down anyway,” Patil added.
Political analyst Jaidev Dole told ThePrint that Shinde could also emerge as a strong Maratha leader and resurgence of Shiv Sena (UBT) now seems difficult.
Shinde’s growing importance
When Shiv Sena (UBT) called for a meeting of its MPs Thursday by issuing a whip, only 1 Rajya Sabha MP and 3 Lok Sabha MPs attended. The absence of the remaining 6 Lok Sabha MPs almost sealed the deal for Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
However, Shiv Sena leaders, without divulging its contents, told ThePrint that a letter has been submitted to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and the induction of these 6 MPs is still on hold. “There are certain technical and legal formalities that need to be done and the induction will happen post that,” a Shiv Sena leader said, requesting anonymity.
If the merger goes through, Shinde’s Shiv Sena will be the largest party in ruling Mahayuti in terms of number of MPs from Maharashtra at 13, followed by the BJP with 9.
“Yes, definitely it will bolster our position in Mahayuti and state politics,” said Shiv Sena MP Naresh Mhaske. Adding, “This will help us to expand our party. At these six places our strength will now increase, which will help us during the 2029 elections as well.”
For the past year and a half, the Shinde-led Sena has been trying to approach Sena (UBT) MPs. Shinde’s ‘Operation Tiger’, as party leaders refer to it, picked up pace after the split in the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.
“We knew that their leaders were not happy with Uddhav Thackeray. All we did was heard them, there was a lack of leadership. We all believe in Shinde’s leadership and have faith in him. UBT people need to introspect why many leaders are leaving them every now and then,” the leader quoted earlier said.
But according to Sanjay Patil, this is just another move in the tussle between CM Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy CM Shinde, adding that with more MPs on his side, Shinde’s bargaining position within the Mahayuti will increase.
“From what I see, this is a struggle between Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis more than Uddhav Thackeray. After TMC rebels joining NDA, it became important for Shinde to keep his relevance within NDA. This is part of the larger politics, political dominance in the state,” said Patil. “This is not a good sign for state BJP. This is a fight on two fronts actually,” said Patil.
But one of the biggest advantages for Eknath Shinde is the growing footprint of his party in rural Maharashtra, especially Marathwada, where undivided Shiv Sena has traditionally had a strong presence. In the case of the 3 Sena (UBT) MPs from Marathwada—Hingoli, Dharashiv, Parbhani—this could also be seen as addressing their grievances about the ruling BJP not letting them work in the region.
“After Ajit Pawar, Shinde is the biggest Maratha face in the state. There is no other leader who is there to protect the interests in the cooperative sector and BJP is known for its tilt towards OBCs,” said political analyst Jaidev Dole, who closely monitors the politics of Marathwada region. “And so Maratha leaders are rallying behind Shinde as well and that is helping Shinde as well. He is targeting Marathi young leaders, contractors, bureaucrats, etc.,” Dole added.
Uddhav’s decline
A senior leader close to Matoshree told ThePrint that about a year ago when Uddhav Thackeray had visited Delhi to attend INDIA bloc meeting, the same Sena (UBT) MPs were hesitant to even take a picture with him
“They kept on avoiding to be seen publicly, but in private they all were sweet and pledged their allegiance to us,” the leader said.
Then last week the 6 MPs who supposedly swore in private to remain by Uddhav’s side, deserted him.
The Sena (UBT) leader quoted earlier revealed that on 14 June, all the 6 MPs were present for the meeting via video conferencing except Sanjay Dina Patil who was present physically.
At that point, they promised to not leave the party but we “had an inkling about Sanjay Jadhav and Nagesh Ashtikar because they had issues with our district-level workers and wanted us to change them constantly. But with Dina Patil, it is shocking as he was present for all meetings that took place this month,” the leader said.
All signs point to how for Uddhav Thackeray, rebuilding the party once again would prove to be a difficult task.
Political analysts also said that in this challenging and changing environment, cadre will also start thinking about themselves because organisational strength needs to be built—something the Thackerays have failed at.
But, speaking to ThePrint, Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut said, “It doesn’t bother us. We have gone through many such rebellions in the past and a job of the party is to rebuild it. We will do it.”
One of the allegations against the Thackerays is that they didn’t gather enough feedback from constituents to rebuild the party especially after the first split.
After the initial months in 2022 when Aditya Thackeray took out the statewide rally, even he went quiet, said Dole, adding, “If Uddhav can’t visit constituencies because of his health, at least Aditya should have. But even he failed.”
ThePrint reached Aaditya Thackeray for comment via calls and text messages but had not received a response by the time of publication.
Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders, however, disagreed with this assessment.
“There is no election at the moment and during the 2024 election, did Uddhav Thackeray along with MVA leaders not take out rallies in their constituencies? They did it not once but twice. What more needs to be done? They are given tickets and even their families are given tickets for different elections. These are just excuses, the MPs wanted to leave, they left,” said another senior Sena (UBT) leader.
Another argument made by leaders deserting the Sena (UBT) is about a lack of clarity on the party’s ideological stand. The cadre were confused about whether Thackeray was with hindutva or secular parties.
To his credit, Uddhav has multiple times in the past said that his party’s hindutva is different from BJP’s hindutva and that the party welcomes whoever stands with the country, irrespective of their religion.
But after Fadnavis became CM again in 2024, Shiv Sena (UBT)’s praise for his work in Gadchiroli, party MLA Milind Narvekar’s congratulatory posts for Fadnavis and then DGP Rashmi Shukla, Aditya Thackeray’s visit to Mohit Kamboj—a close aide of Fadnavis’s, on his daughter’s birthday—raised eyebrows.
“All this is happening after the blessings of BJP leadership. We are fighting against them. Our ideology is clear, our hindutva is clear. The day our party once again joins with BJP, I will leave politics,” Raut told ThePrint.
Patil said that those who are with Thackeray are fighting for their survival and a crisis is being manufactured where funds are not getting dispersed and their political careers are at stake.
“So I can’t be sure if those who are with him will remain with Uddhav in future or not. There can be repercussions down below to the worker level,” said Patil.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
Also read: Shiv Sena (UBT) split buzz gets louder as 6 of its 9 Lok Sabha MPs skip party meet