Mumbai: After declaring unconditional support to the Mahayuti alliance (of Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar-led NCP and BJP) in Maharashtra earlier this year, MNS chief Raj Thackeray Monday announced that he will contest the upcoming assembly elections independently and will not tie up with any political party.
Thackeray said his party will contest 200-225 seats in the 288-member house and that he has even started identifying the seats.
“I had given unconditional support to Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha but I had never said anything about the Vidhan Sabha,” Thackeray said at a press conference.
He has started touring the state and was in Solapur Monday. The MNS chief has also announced two candidates — Bala Nandgaonkar from Shivadi in Mumbai (Ajay Choudhari is the sitting MLA from Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), and Dilip Dhotre from Pandharpur (Samadhan Autade of BJP is the sitting MLA).
Thackeray again raked up the subject of giving preference to the Marathi manoos (sons of the soil) in terms of employment opportunities, a pitch that may hit the Marathi votebank of the Shiv Sena.
However, the jury is split wide open on whether MNS’ decision to go solo will hurt any of the two factions of the Shiv Sena, and if it does, it is believed to likely affect the Shiv Sena UBT.
“In my opinion, this (MNS going solo and its Marathi manoos pitch) is a plan to divide the Marathi votebank and hurt Uddhav Thackeray more. Although it is early to comment, but most likely he will put candidates where the Shiv Sena UBT is stronger and in Vidhan Sabha polls, a small margin here and there could change the results,” said political analyst Prakash Bal.
However, Dr Ajinkya Gaikwad, assistant professor of politics at a Mumbai-based college, told ThePrint that Raj Thackeray won’t have a large impact in the state except for a few isolated pockets in Mumbai, Thane and Nashik.
“Over the years, he hasn’t had much impact electorally. Plus, the Shiv Sena’s vote-base is already divided between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. So those who don’t subscribe to any one idea, have the other party to go to. In that sense, I don’t know how Raj Thackeray would cut through because the voter also chooses a stronger party,” Gaikwad said.
Political analysts also feel that post the Lok Sabha results, the atmosphere has changed for the opposition and the assembly polls would be fought more on local, emotional issues.
Also Read: BJP’s friend in 2014, foe in 2019, potential ally in 2024 — the many flip flops of Raj Thackeray
MNS’ poll history
Following its formation in 2006, the MNS saw electoral success in the 2009 Maharashtra election and the 2012 civic polls. But since then, the party’s journey has been rocky.
Raj Thackeray has changed his stand every now and then — in 2014, he supported Modi, then in 2019 he opposed him, only to announce support to the PM again this year.
Though his party did not win a single seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it managed to eat into the Shiv Sena-BJP votes across the state, especially in Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik.
Then, in the 2009 Maharashtra elections, the MNS had its brightest moment — it won 13 seats on the ‘Marathi manoos’ plank.
The party again failed to win a seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and its tally in the 2014 and 2019 assembly polls stood at one each. It did not contest the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Accordingly, the MNS’ vote share in the assembly has also dropped.
Going by poll data, in the 2009 assembly elections, the MNS had a vote share of 5.7 percent but it tanked to 3.2 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2019.
Raj Thackeray has now announced that he has asked MNS workers to start preparations to field candidates in 200-225 constituencies in Maharashtra. For this, he has already started touring the state to strengthen the party and motivate workers on the ground level.
Political experts believe that in some constituencies of Mumbai, the MNS could dent the Shiv Sena, especially of Uddhav Thackeray, in pockets that are traditional votebanks of the Sena, such as Worli and Dadar.
Battle for Worli seat
One of the key assembly seats the MNS would be hoping to win is Worli – the constituency of Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray. It comes under Mumbai South Lok Sabha seat, from where Arvind Sawant of Shiv Sena UBT won by a small margin this year.
The party is reportedly set to field Sandeep Deshpande, who is quite actively engaging with the residents of Worli over their problems.
The MNS chief met Chief Minister Shinde Saturday to discuss matters related to Worli. He pointed to issues concerning the sprawling BDD chawls in Mumbai, as well as development of colonies for police personnel.
A statement by the Chief Minister’s Office said Shinde directed officials to address concerns of the residents of Worli on a priority basis.
Aaditya Thackeray Monday met with the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority chief to take stock of the status of BDD chawls.
“Many parties are camping in Worli currently as Worli is a prestige battle. So even if the MNS has an impact on Worli, I am not sure whether it will have an overall impact in the state,” Gaikwad told ThePrint.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also Read: ‘NCP is Maharashtra’s BSP’ — what BJP stands to gain from Ajit Pawar’s switch ahead of 2024
Net net, whose votes will he cut into. Should one even be asking this question.