Math done, now Congress-JD(S) has to pass chemistry test in Karnataka

The Congress and JD(S) are avowed rivals of the past who forged an alliance last year. Some workers, however, are yet to forget old rivalries.

File photo of H.D. Kumaraswamy (left) with Siddaramaiah (right) after the May 2018 assembly elections | PTI

Bengaluru: Pre-poll coalitions look good on paper but often end up in disaster. Alliances formed by political parties at the level of senior leaders may be strong in intent but can flounder when it comes to to the grassroots, especially when the outfits in question have been avowed rivals in the past.

That is the threat the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance faces in Karnataka — if not across the state, at least in the regions where they have traditionally competed against each other for supremacy.

Take Mandya, for example. Under the seat-sharing arrangement, the seat has gone to the JD(S), but its candidate, former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy, is being made to sweat.

The late filmstar-politician Ambareesh’s wife Sumalatha, an Independent candidate, has launched a blistering campaign, but what is worrying the JD(S) is the open support for her among local Congressmen.

It is the same story in Hassan, a seat represented by Deve Gowda five times where the JD(S) has fielded a second Gowda grandson, Prajwal, this time.

A desperate Gowda and his son, Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, wanted Congress president Rahul Gandhi to tell his party cadres in Mandya and elsewhere to work for the victory of JD(S) candidates.

Sharing the stage with the duo at a public meeting on the outskirts of Bengaluru Sunday, Gandhi obliged Gowda and called for unity among the workers of both parties.

Mutual suspicion

The Old Mysuru region of Karnataka, which includes Mandya and Mysuru, has seen the Congress and the JD(S) wage a bitter fight for dominance as recently as 2018, when the assembly elections were held.

Despite the two parties subsequently forming a government together, the animosity between them at the grassroots level has remained. After all, in many assembly segments across this region, there have been one-to-one battles between the two parties in past elections.

The trust deficit runs so deep that the JD(S) suspects the Congress is trying to wreck its chances in Mandya to avenge the humiliating defeat former chief minister Siddaramaiah suffered at the hands of the JD(S) in Mysuru in the 2018 assembly election — he lost Chamundeshwari, a seat he has held five times, by over 35,000 votes. And the Congress is wary of a repeat embarrassment in Mysuru.

Assuming that the two parties are able to iron out their differences, what can be the expectations for the alliance in this Lok Sabha election?

A look at the 2014 elections, when the Congress won nine, the JD(S) two and the BJP 17 of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats, offers some clue.

Let us specifically look at five constituencies — Mysuru, Mandya, Bengaluru (Rural), Chikkballapur and Kolar. Remember, the Congress and the JD(S) fought the elections separately.

In Mysuru, thanks to the JD(S) polling nearly 1.4 lakh votes, the BJP won by a margin of just about 30,000. A Congress-JD(S) tie-up could have comfortably helped the alliance pocket the seat.

In Mandya, it was a narrow victory for the JD(S). The 86,000 votes secured by the BJP ensured the Congress’ defeat by a mere 5,000 votes.

In Bengaluru (Rural), the Congress, with 6.52 lakh votes, won in the face of a terrific show by the BJP, which secured 4.2 lakh votes. The JD(S) did well, too, with 3.17 lakh votes.

In Chikkballapur, M. Veerappa Moily of the Congress won by the skin of his teeth against the BJP, thanks to Kumaraswamy of the JD(S), who polled over 3.4 lakh votes. In Kolar again, the Congress’ victory was courtesy of a triangular fight. It was a seat held by the Congress.

Clearly, in each of these seats, the combined total of the votes polled by the two parties is greater than the votes of the BJP. Assuming that the individual strengths of the three parties will be what they were in 2014, the alliance can romp home in these seats if the Congress and the JD(S) are able to transfer their votes to each other’s candidates.

The Tumkur question

The arithmetic certainly sounds good, but the chemistry? Will the vote-transfer from the Congress to the JD(S) and vice versa happen in a way that the incremental vote bears fruit for the alliance?

Nothing illustrates the doubts over the parties’ chemistry better than the Tumkur seat, where the soon-to-be 87 Deve Gowda is contesting what he says is the last election of his life.

The Tumkur seat was won by the Congress in 2014, but has been given to the JD(S) this time around.

The outgoing Congress MP, S. Muddahanume Gowda, was, understandably, livid initially and went on to file his nomination. It required much persuasion by Siddaramaiah for the rebel to withdraw from the fray, much to Gowda’s relief. But will the outgoing Congress MP and his supporters enthusiastically campaign for Deve Gowda there?

The alliance will not expect anything from coastal Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi-Chikkamagaluru.

In fact, in Udupi-Chikkamagaluru, which was given to the JD(S) under the seat-sharing arrangement, the party has been forced to borrow a candidate from the Congress.
The JD(S) is not much of a force in north Karnataka either. In both these regions, the seats have always gone to the BJP.

In Chitradurga, central Karnataka, the Congress can expect to gain from the alliance, and in Shimoga, the JD(S) has a good chance of wresting the seat from the BJP, if the performance in last year’s by-election is any measure.

Vacated by state BJP chief B.S. Yeddyurappa last year with the hope of another stint at chief ministership, the seat was won by his son B.Y. Raghavendra, who defeated his JD(S) rival by just over 52,000 votes — a shadow of the over 3.5-lakh margin BSY achieved in 2014.

Alliance leaders admit there are problems of coordination at the constituency level but recall that, in the November 2018 bypolls, the combination won two Lok Sabha seats — Bellary and Mandya — out of three and two assembly constituencies.

They contend that local rivalries will not be that intense in a Lok Sabha election as they are in an assembly election.

Leaders of the JD(S) hope that the appeal by Gandhi to his partymen to uphold the spirit of the alliance would have a salutary effect, but Congress workers may not heed his call as far as Mandya is concerned.

That will be extremely worrying for the Gowda dynasty, which is projecting Nikhil, an actor, as a heir of sorts. Losing Mandya will be a huge setback for the JD(S) and may even adversely affect the coalition government if the alliance performs badly elsewhere in the state too.

The author is an independent journalist based in Bengaluru.