New Delhi: Sabotage by BJP MLAs and ministers in the Yogi government, a lack of synergy between the government and the party, non-cooperation from state government officials, a disconnect between BJP candidates and voters, and the drifting of Dalit and OBC votes away from BJP — these are the reasons cited by the BJP’s task force, consisting of 40 leaders, for the party’s poor performance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This report, compiled and shared with the BJP high command, is based on visits to 78 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats. The team did not visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency Varanasi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s Lucknow.
Speaking to ThePrint, a source in the BJP said, “The report on the party’s debacle in UP has been shared with the central unit. Major factors cited in the report include the Dalit vote shifting away from the party due to the Opposition’s campaign claiming that the BJP would ‘change the Constitution’ if it came to power, the BSP failing to cut Muslim and Dalit votes to help the BJP, and the consolidation of the Muslim vote towards the SP-Congress alliance.”
Following the report’s submission, the party has swiftly taken action. Earlier this week, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath transferred 12 district magistrates (DMs) from constituencies where the BJP lost to the SP in the Lok Sabha polls. The transfers, which took place Tuesday, affected DMs in Sitapur, Banda, Basti, Shrawasti, Kaushambi, Sambhal, Saharanpur, Moradabad, and Hathras.
Additionally, DMs in Kasganj, Chitrakoot, and Auraiya, which come under Etah, Banda, and Etawah constituencies, respectively, were also reassigned. These changes reflect the BJP’s losses in all these constituencies except for Hathras.
In its review meetings, BJP local leaders complained that the “administration did not support the party, created obstacles during polling, and humiliated BJP workers”.
Speaking to ThePrint, a senior party leader who worked on the report said, “In several places, party workers complained that BJP MLAs and ministers worked against the party. It’s surprising to see such a disconnect between the government and the party, with ministers undermining candidates. While local-level sabotage is common in every election, senior-level sabotage typically requires a signal from the top. Even the indifferent attitude of the bureaucracy in several places cannot be taken lightly.”
In the Saharanpur Lok Sabha seat, BJP General Secretary Govind Narayan Shukla was tasked with investigating the reasons behind the defeat of party candidate Raghav Lakhanpal. According to sources, BJP workers summoned to provide inputs alleged that Yogi government minister Kunwar Brijesh Singh and Saharanpur Nagar BJP MLA Rajeev Gumbar worked against Lekhpal. Allegedly, only 50 percent polling was seen at several booths under Gumbar’s jurisdiction, while voter turnout was higher in areas where BJP does not have an MLA. Local leaders also blamed the district administration for creating obstacles at BJP booths while giving free rein to SP booths.
According to a BJP leader in Saharanpur, former district magistrate Dinesh Chandra is an old friend of the current Congress MP Imran Masood. The leader said that despite several requests from the district unit to transfer the DM, no action was taken, until now.
“In one internal meeting before the elections, district president Mahender Singh Saini had raised the issue of transferring the DM. The next day, DM Dinesh Chandra called him and asked him why he wanted him transferred. This clearly means there are asteen ke saanp (traitors) in our midst, briefing the DM about internal discussions,” the BJP leader said, adding that the DM did not assist party workers during polls.
Masood reportedly also recently praised CM Yogi Adityanath for his development work in the state.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP saw its tally in UP coming down to 33 from 62 in 2019 and a 7 percent drop in its vote share. If translated into assembly-wise performance, the BJP will likely get only 165 seats, 37 seats less than the majority mark, and the SP-Congress alliance will likely see a lead in 222 assembly seats.
UP BJP General Secretary Govind Narayan Shukla told ThePrint, “Common factor on all seats was the major shift of Dalit and some section of OBC votes towards the SP-Congress alliance.”
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Shift in Muslim support
According to Puneet Tyagi, BJP president for Saharanpur Metropolis, the shift of the BSP’s vote bank to the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance was a big factor behind the BJP’s performance in the state.
“Moreover, the Opposition’s campaign about the BJP changing the Constitution if voted to power, dented the BJP’s chances of getting Dalit votes. We lost at least 60 percent of votes from Dalits,” he said. “In Dehat assembly, Masood’s vote count surged from 43,000 to 1.21 lakh due to a shift in Dalit votes and the consolidation of Muslim votes towards the SP-Congress alliance. Although the BJP did not lose its 2019 vote count of 70,000 in Dehat, in fact increasing it to 77,000, the decimation of the BSP and the shift in Dalit votes significantly impacted our situation.”
In the Salempur Lok Sabha constituency, BJP’s sitting MP Ravindar Kushawaha lost by a narrow margin of 3,573 votes to SP’s Ramashankar Rajbhar. He has accused Vijay Laxmi Gautam, minister in Yogi government, and Ballia’s BJP district president Sanjay Yadav of conspiring against him. He had won this seat in 2014 and 2019.
Speaking at a press conference, he said, “Vijay Laxmi did not campaign for me even a single day, and Sanjay Yadav, and his entire team campaigned to defeat me.”
In Kaushambi, where the BJP’s sitting MP Vinod Kumar Sonkar lost to SP’s Pushpendra Saroj, a major factor in his defeat, identified during the review meeting, was anger against the sitting MP. The BJP’s decision to retain the sitting MP, coupled with a shift in Dalit votes towards the SP and factors like Raja Bhaiya’s influence, led to alienation among Rajputs, which marred BJP’s prospects.
For the 2024 polls, the BJP failed to get the support of strongman and MLA from UP’s Kunda constituency, Raghuraj Pratap Singh (popularly known as Raja Bhaiya) with him declaring that the people should feel free to vote for the candidate of their choice. This likely played spoilsport for the BJP.
According to Kaushambi BJP district president Dharmraj Maurya, the party’s ‘400-paar’ campaign backfired, too. Speaking to ThePrint, he said, “Of the 4 lakh Dalit votes polled, SP got over 3 lakh in Kaushambi. Raja Bhaiya’s signal against our candidate cost us Rajput votes and aided the SP. Another crucial factor was the bureaucratic apathy; our workers felt neglected by the government for even minor issues, often being told to approach Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath directly.”
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‘Retaining sitting MPs was a mistake’
BJP’s gamble of fielding 33 sitting MPs backfired due to anti-incumbency against MPs and a disconnect within the organisation, resulting in the loss of 20 sitting MPs, including eight-time MP Maneka Gandhi.
BJP lost all the seats in the Prayagraj region, including Pratapgarh, Allahabad, Kaushambi, and Fatehpur. The party only managed to retain Phulpur, where BJP’s sitting MLA Praveen Patel beat SP’s Amar Nath Singh Maurya.
In Pratapgarh, SP’s Shiv Pal Singh Patel defeated BJP’s Sangam Lal Gupta by over 60,000 votes. In Fatehpur, SP’s Naresh Chandra Uttam Patel defeated BJP’s Niranjani Jyoti by a margin of 30,000 votes.
Following her loss, Niranjani Jyoti had said, “There are some who are putting roadblocks in Modi’s mission”, indicating sabotage from higher-ups. Before the polls, local leaders had demanded that she be replaced with a fresh face.
In Moradabad and Sambhal, too, the BJP failed to win. Former Kairana BJP MP Pradeep Kumar, who lost, stated, “We lost due to the consolidation of Muslims, OBC, and Dalit votes in favour of the SP-Congress alliance. The shift in the OBCs’ support is a warning signal for the upcoming assembly elections.”
In the Banda Lok Sabha seat, the BJP lost due to two factors — one was the BSP fielding a Brahmin, Mayank Dwivedi, who split the Brahmin vote, ensuring the SP’s victory. BJP’s sitting MP R.K. Singh Patel accused “party’s former MPs and MLAs” for the defeat, but the party’s review committee identified several factors behind the defeat in Banda, including anti-incumbency.
“Not just Dalit, but the OBCs too drifted away from us and towards SP. It started from the 2022 assembly election but we thought Ram Temple would help us win,” Patel said to ThePrint. “The party didn’t effectively counter Akhilesh’s social engineering of OBCs and Dalits or address issues of employment and livelihood. Our people were more focused on sabotage and the Ram Temple euphoria, which didn’t work.”
Meanwhile, BJP’s Banda district president Sanjay Singh told ThePrint, “Repeating sitting MP and worker dissatisfaction against bureaucracy played a big role. BJP workers felt let down; they worked for Modiji, but they felt like the state government wasn’t with them, exacerbating their ire towards elected representatives.”
BJP’s Mahendra Nath Pandey, who won from Chandauli in 2014 and 2019, lost to the SP’s Birendra Singh this time. He, too, blamed the Opposition’s Constitution change campaign and the drifting of Dalit votes for the party’s loss in the seat.
In Sitapur Lok Sabha constituency, it is alleged that Yogi’s ministers worked against the BJP candidate. The party’s review committee found anti-incumbency against Rajesh Verma, who has represented the constituency four times, and that local influential BJP leader Shiv Kumar Gupta sabotaged Verma and even “spent money” to ensure his defeat.
Speaking to ThePrint, a former Sitapur MLA said, “The administration facilitated polling as per the BJP’s requests, but Yogi’s ministers backed and financed other party candidates to defeat the sitting MP. Jatavs, who typically vote for the BJP, shifted to the Congress, and Pasis shifted to the SP-Congress alliance due to fears of constitutional changes. Even Kurmis shifted away from us in many places. It’s surprising that the CM didn’t receive reports of his ministers working to defeat BJP candidates.”
In Shrawasti, the BJP fielded Saket Mishra, son of Nipendra Mishra, to wrest the seat from the SP, hoping that the BSP would play a role as a vote-cutter, like it did in 2019. However, the BSP’s cadre and Jatav votes shifted to the SP, and internal infighting within the BJP further hindered the party’s chances. A local BJP leader noted that, “From Modi to Shah to Yogi and several CMs campaigned for Saket Mishra, but his aloof demeanour alienated BJP workers.”
In Muzaffarnagar and Ayodhya, disputes emerged during the review meetings. In Muzaffarnagar, Jat versus Rajput dynamics played out, with BJP leader Sangeet Som blaming candidate Sanjeev Balyan for the defeat. In Ayodhya, there was significant anti-incumbency against the MP, exacerbated by anger among locals over various infrastructure projects.
A former BJP minister of Uttar Pradesh said, “The recent example of the humiliation of BJP spokesperson Rajesh Tripathi by a police inspector is an illustration of how babudom rules UP. On polling day, police raided senior backward caste leader and SP leader Lalji Verma, a prominent Kurmi face. Who makes such irresponsible decisions, knowing the caste sentiments on polling day? Such actions raised suspicions of political vendetta and involvement of senior leaders in BJP’s defeat. Kurmis and other OBCs turned against us.”
Akhilesh Yadav fielded 10 Kurmi candidates in the Lok Sabha elections as Kurmis are a significant OBC group after Yadavs. SP’s mobilisation among OBCs contributed to their victory in 37 seats, with 20 seats won by OBC candidates.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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There’s only one reason. Overplaying divisive politics & disillusionment of dalits & OBCs. Minorities were already out of the fold. The disrespect shown to the revered Shankaracharyas alineated even the godfearing liberal hindu voter.