Karnataka poll dates announced: Here are the five factors that will decide the outcome

Current Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah and Congress President Rahul Gandhi campaign in Karnataka | @siddaramaiah | Twitter

Voting on 12 May, results on 15 May for crucial election a year before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

New Delhi: The politically vital assembly elections in Karnataka will be held in a single phase on 12 May, the Election Commission of India announced Tuesday.

The model code of conduct took effect on Tuesday, and results will be declared on 15 May

The elections to the 224-seat assembly, which come in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls next year, are crucial for both the national parties involved — the ruling Congress as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — as also for regional player Janata Dal (Secular).

In the previous elections in 2013, the Congress won 122 seats with a vote share of 36.59 per cent and the BJP won 40 seats with a 19.89 per cent vote share. The Deve Gowda-led JD (S) won as many seats as the BJP, with a vote share of 20.19 per cent.

Why the elections are so crucial

This is a do-or-die battle for the Congress, which now rules only three states. Losing Karnataka would leave the Congress in power in just Punjab and Mizoram, with the latter also going to the polls later this year. To keep its electoral morale from plunging further, it is imperative for the Congress to retain the politically important state, which is central to generating resources for the party, especially in a year that will witness many elections. Leading the charge for the Congress is chief minister Siddaramaiah, known to be a strong, rooted regional leader and an astute politician.

The BJP enters the election season with fresh wounds of defeat from this month’s parliamentary bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, where it was voted out of stronghold Gorakhpur as well as Phulpur. This is also the only election before the Lok Sabha polls, barring Mizoram’s, where the BJP fights as a challenger and not the incumbent. Of the other three important states going to the polls at the end of 2018, the party looks vulnerable in Rajasthan after its embarrassing bypoll defeats earlier this year, while it’s battling multiple-term anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The key player for the party in Karnataka is former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa.

For the JD(S), this election is important to retain its relevance and presence in Karnataka, much like it is for regional parties across states in the face of an ascendant BJP. The party would hope to garner enough numbers to play kingmaker. For now, it seems to be veering towards the BJP.

The big issues

There are essentially five key issues at play this election season.

1. Welfare programmes: The Congress is banking heavily on the slew of welfare measures it has launched in the state, including Indira Canteens, Maithri, Anila Bhagya, Mathrupoorna, free rice, Krishibhagya, education schemes and SC/ST loan waivers, among others. These populist measures form the core of its campaign.
2. Identity: It has emerged as a crucial factor after Siddaramaiah played the sub-nationalism and regional assertion card, with the state flag, and recommended separate religion status for Lingayats. The Congress government’s move to accord the status to Lingayats and Veerashaiva-Lingayats is being seen as a strategy to split this crucial vote bank, which has traditionally supported the BJP. Yeddyurappa, in fact, is a Lingayat strongman.
3. Corruption: This is one state where the BJP’s card of being clean may not work, given the past allegations of corruption against Yeddyurappa. While the allegations have given the Congress campaign ammunition, the BJP has not held back, with party chief Amit Shah saying the Siddaramaiah government was the “most corrupt” in the country.
4. Farmer and Rural distress, Urban infrastructure: These are election issues no incumbent can afford to ignore, as was seen in the recent Gujarat assembly polls where the BJP lost ground due to rural voters’ unhappiness. In Karnataka in general and Bengaluru in particular, urban infrastructure is in a shambles. How far this will dent the Congress will essentially depend on whether the BJP is able to get urban Karnataka, traditionally the party’s stronghold, to rally behind it.
5. Hindutva: The BJP is attempting to make Hindutva an important poll plank, pursuing it aggressively in the state’s communally sensitive coastal belt. The party has been raising Hindutva-tinted issues like attacks on Hindu activists and withdrawal of rioting cases against Muslims, among others. The Congress’ poll prospects depend on whether Siddaramaiah can effectively counter this with his sub-nationalism and religious identity gamble.