Those denied tickets and the candidates who switched sides ahead of the elections may upset calculations of both BJP and Congress.
Ahead of the second phase of the Gujarat assembly polls due Thursday, it’s the rebel factor that has become a headache for both the BJP and the Congress in Central Gujarat.
Of the 61 seats in the region, the BJP had won 37 and Congress 22 in 2012.
While both parties are now trying to improve their performance, the Congress is facing a bigger challenge as a number of their MLAs in the region switched to the BJP.
Kapadvanj is an assembly constituency that was represented by senior politician Shankarsinh Vaghela until recently. In 2012, the victory margin of Vaghela was only 6,000 though.
With Vaghela resigning from the Congress and opting out of the race, the BJP was hopeful of winning this seat. But there is a problem. Former BJP MLA and a senior local leader Bimal Shah is contesting from this seat as an independent, giving an advantage to Congress candidate Kalabhai Dabhi.
“I have won the seat twice in the past and was assured by the senior leaders that I would get the ticket this time as well. But they went by the caste combination and put a Kshatriya in my place,” said Bimal Shah.
“Later, my supporters in the constituency forced me to contest as an independent,” he added.
The BJP candidate, Kanubhai Dabhi, is fully aware that Shah could take away a chunk of votes, but not to the extent of a possible defeat. “He has some influence and would get one or two thousand votes. But voters always prefer a party candidate to an independent,” he said.
There are 2.72 lakh voters in Kapadvanj, of which 1.44 lakh are Kshatriyas, followed by 45,000 Muslims and 30,000 Patidars. The Congress is relying on the Kshatriya and Muslim consolidation besides a section of Patidars to retain the seat.
However, the situation is quite different in nearby Balasinor assembly segment. Congress MLA Mansinh Chauhan is contesting this time on a BJP ticket against Ajit Chauhan of the Congress.
The BJP faced some problem in fielding Mansinh from the seat after former MLA Rajesh Pathak protested against his candidature. But the party managed it well by offering the post of chairman of civil supplies to Rajesh Pathak and he is now working to ensure Mansinh’s victory.
In contrast, the rebellion within the Congress camp over ticket distribution is clearly visible. “He (Ajit Chauhan) was in the BJP. He was the vice-president of APMC Balasinor with very limited reach on the region,” said Udaysingh Choudhary, Congress Taluka president, who was eyeing a ticket this time.
“We are campaigning but you can see there is no such enthusiasm among our cadre. Also, we don’t have money to match the BJP’s campaigning,” he added.
A senior Congress leader from the state confirms that Choudhary’s name was shot down at the last moment and the ticket was given to Ajit Chauhan.
The party was counting on Patel votes but another BJP leader, Hitendra Patel, is contesting on the NCP ticket just to divide the Patel vote going to the Congress.
In the nearby Thasra constituency, five-time Congress MLA Ramsinh Parmar is contesting on a BJP ticket. A loyalist of Shankarsinh Vaghela, Parmar joined the BJP after the Rajya Sabha elections in August.
To counter him, the Congress has also poached a strong BJP leader, Kantibhai Parmar. “There is so much anger against Ramji Parmar. He had lost the elections last time and that’s why he joined the BJP but that won’t help him,” said 26-year-old Vipul Patel of Bhavanpura Lad village.
Next to Thasra is Lunawada constituency, another Congress stronghold where the party looks to be struggling. Hirabhai Patel, the sitting Congress MLA, was all set to switch side but was convinced by senior leader Ahmed Patel to vote for him in the Rajya Sabha. However, he was denied a ticket and Congress fielded Paranjayaditya Sinh Parmar, son-in-law of senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh.
A strong Congress leader, Ratan Sinh Rathod, is contesting as an independent and is being backed by the Congress leaders of the constituency. “The main contest is between Manoj Patel of the BJP and Rathor,” said a taluka president of Congress.
Even former BJP MP Bhupendra Singh Solanki is also in the fray as an independent. “I am a local candidate and a party loyal for long time. But when it comes to tickets, I don’t know what criteria they follow,” said Solanki.
Godhra, which was considered a Congress bastion because of its large Dalit and Muslim population, is facing a triangular contest this time. Congress MLA C.K. Raulji is contesting on a BJP ticket. The victory margin of Raulji in the last assembly election was only 3,200 and he was sure to improve by contesting on a BJP ticket.
However, to make matter worse for him, a local BJP leader, Jaswantsinh Parmar, is contesting as an independent in this seat. Parmar enjoys support of a large section Dalits and he could upset the calculation of both the BJP and the Congress.