New Delhi: The BJP is likely to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) could spring a surprise by gaining a clear majority in Punjab, exit polls for the 2022 assembly election season predicted Monday evening.
Pollsters were, however, split on Uttarakhand and Goa, indicating a keen contest.
According to NDTV’s poll of polls for UP, based on the aggregation of four exit polls, the BJP and its allies are likely to win 231 of the 403 seats — down from 325 in 2017 — while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is likely to win 151, improving its tally from 47 in the last election.
While exit poll results have often gone wrong in the past, a correct prediction for UP could mean a shot in the arm for the BJP as the SP’s spirited campaign was threatening to spoil its hopes of a second consecutive win.
UP, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, is crucial to the BJP in terms of laying the groundwork and generating momentum for its campaign to ensure a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024.
Going by exit polls’ predictions Monday, the farmers’ agitation could have dented the BJP’s performance in western Uttar Pradesh. The predicted dip in its numbers can also be attributed to the issues of unemployment, price rise and stray cattle menace.
Meanwhile, central welfare schemes related to free foodgrains and housing, among others, have been known to be popular, with voters also showing approval for the BJP for the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the Kashi-Vishwanath corridor project. All three were key planks for the BJP.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘bulldozer’ slogan to showcase the BJP government’s actions against the mafia also seemed to have found resonance on the ground.
The exit poll predictions suggest SP leader Akhilesh Yadav’s poll strategy to expand its core base of Yadavs and Muslims by allying with smaller parties representing other backward classes — Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal, and the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) of Krishna Patel — worked to an extent but not enough to get the SP close to the majority figure.
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First win for AAP in Punjab?
In Punjab, the poll of polls, based on the aggregation of six exit polls, predicted 67 seats for the AAP in the 117-member assembly — indicating that the party is likely set to form its first government outside Delhi.
The ruling Congress is predicted to get 25 seats, the Akali Dal 18, and the BJP 4. Only India News predicted a hung assembly, giving the AAP 39-43, the Congress 23-26 seats and the Akali Dal 22-25 seats.
If the exit polls were to hold true, it would have a huge bearing on national politics in the context of party convenor Arvind Kejriwal’s attempt to project the AAP as a potential third alternative in the country.
The AAP showcased its Delhi model of governance, especially in health and education sectors, to seek a mandate from the people of Punjab.
Going by the results, the Congress and the Gandhis are set for a major setback that can be attributed to the political instability caused by their decision to force Captain Amarinder Singh to quit amid a stand-off between the former CM and state party chief Navjot Singh Sidhu. Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, was chosen as Amarinder’s successor.
Exit poll predictions for Uttarakhand are no solace to the Congress as they project a hung verdict.
The NDTV poll of polls predicts 34 seats for the BJP and 32 for the Congress in the 70-member assembly. In 2017, the BJP won 57 seats, with the Congress managing to win only 11.
The BJP formed the government with Trivendra Singh Rawat as the CM. But a bad review for him forced the party to change its CM again. Rawat was replaced by Tirath Singh Rawat in March 2021, who was then replaced by incumbent Pushkar Singh Dhami six months later.
In Manipur, it’s the BJP all the way. The NDTV poll of polls has predicted 30 seats for the BJP, with the Congress along with its allies likely to win 14 seats in the 60-seat assembly.
Currently, the BJP-led NDA is in power in the state with 36 of the 60 seats with it. The BJP’s allies in 2017 included the National People’s Party (NPP) – which is contesting this election alone.
In 2017, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats but the BJP, with 21, tripped it by cobbling up a majority in the assembly.
In Goa, the NDTV poll of polls has predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and the BJP with both likely to get 16 seats. The majority mark is 21 in the 40-member assembly. Currently, the BJP, which is in power in the state, has 27 MLA in the assembly while the Congress has 2 MLAs, down from the 17 it won in 2017.
The Trinamool Congress, which tried to make inroads into the state with a fierce campaign, has been predicted to net a tally of 3 by 10 exit polls.
(Edited by Sunanda Ranjan)
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