Congress can’t lead India or Assam – message from voters in party stronghold Kaliabor

Kaliabor in Assam serves as a microcosm of what voters even in Congress strongholds think of party’s larger political prospects.

Congress hoardings in Kaliabor | Ruhi Tewari | ThePrint

Kaliabor, Assam: The Congress, under its new party president Rahul Gandhi, is hoping the Lok Sabha elections will mark its revival nationally and across key states after the humiliating drubbing of 2014.

But the road ahead is difficult, and the voters of Assam’s Kaliabor constituency are ready to offer a rude reality check to the party.

Kaliabor is as defined a Congress fortress as can be. Since 1967, the party has lost this Lok Sabha seat only twice — to an independent candidate in 1984 and to the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in 1996.

Since 1998, the Gogoi family has represented the seat for consecutive terms — former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, his brother Dip Gogoi and his son Gaurav Gogoi, the sitting MP who is seeking a re-election.

The constituency has a sizeable minority population of around 30 per cent.

Assam, of course, has been a traditional Congress state with Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as a dominant player here only recently.

So Kaliabor perhaps serves as an ideal reflection of why things have gone sour for the Congress, a microcosm of what those even in its strongholds think of its larger prospects and what they identify as the party’s weaknesses.

A significant proportion of voters in Kaliabor don’t seem to think the party is capable of leading India, or even the state, anytime soon. And this isn’t just about the incumbent MP, or the party’s state unit, but a larger point about the party’s disconnect with voters, why they are disillusioned with it and see BJP as a more credible alternative, and how they view the gen-next leadership of Gandhi’s party.

This time, Gogoi is pitted against AGP’s Moni Madhab Mahanta. The BJP and AGP are in an alliance in Assam.

‘What did they do for decades’

The most glaring criticism of the Congress here is what voters believe to be under-performance in the decades for which it held power. Several choose to contrast this with the BJP’s last five years and claim a lot more has been achieved.

“I will support AGP since it is in alliance with BJP and Modi has done a lot of development work. The Congress ruled for so many years but we had so many problems under them — from road to electricity,” says Jogen Gogoi of Bokakhat, claiming he didn’t support any particular party earlier but voted on the basis of the candidate.

“Now, there is rapid work happening. I don’t see the Congress returning to power at the Centre or state at this rate.”

His prescription for Congress revival: “They have to make up for their mistakes. They will have to work among people and remove whatever misgivings they have towards it.”

Sudama Sarma of Kaliabor town says, “The question is what did the Congress do when in power? I used to vote for the Congress. But not now. I don’t want it in power either at the Centre or state. They took Assam for granted.”

“Modi, on the other hand, has made sure welfare schemes reach us — from rural houses to gas connections, electricity, good roads and more. He has even carried out big missile tests,” says Sarma.

Jogen Gogoi (extreme left) – a voter in Kaliabor, and his friends say the Congress is unlikely to come to power at the Centre or state for a while | Ruhi Tewari | ThePrint

This is a recurring sentiment. Most voters in Kaliabor seem impressed with the BJP government’s schemes and contrast it with what they didn’t have earlier.

“We are tea tribes. BJP has done a lot for us. From subsidised rice to gas and toilets. There hasn’t been a PM as successful as Modi. We think he is the best. We didn’t have any of this earlier,” says Rajib Kurmi of Golaghat district.

Leadership question

While Modi is seen as a powerful leader, voters are at a loss to name a tall Congress leader at the Centre or in the state. Rahul Gandhi doesn’t seem to make the cut either.

“I like Rahul Gandhi as a person, but as a politician I don’t like him much. I have started supporting BJP because of Modi. Even in the state, we don’t know who their leader can be,” says Jogen Gogoi.

“We used to think of Tarun Gogoi only and liked him, but now he is old. If Himanta Biswa Sarma had stayed on in Congress, then he would have been a tall leader. Right now, there is nobody.”

The criticism of the Congress leadership is hardly a rare phenomenon.

“We don’t want Congress. Who is their leader? Rahul Gandhi doesn’t know how to talk. He insulted his own PM. And in Assam, have they even thought of who after Tarun Gogoi?” asks Kaliabor town’s Narendra Biswas, who says his family has traditionally supported Congress.

Dynasty and entitlement are also common refrains.

“Those who have been in the Congress even before Rahul Gandhi was born haven’t got a chance to be Congress president, but he has become. Why? This is entirely about dynastic politics — Gandhis, Scindias and here, Gogois,” says Krishna Bhuiyan of Jorhat district.

The voter was “tired of this sense of privilege”, says Bhuiyan, whose constituency is Kaliabor.

Future prospects

Few voters sound hopeful about Congress’s immediate political prospects. Bhuiyan is one of them.

“The way BJP is working now, Congress won’t come back for many years. Even in Assam, if the way BJP continues working the way it is, then it will stay on,” he says.

Bulen Bora of Bokakhat town has his own theory about difficulties in the path of Congress’s revival — a “problem of plenty” in many states.

“It is like we have moved away from a monopoly. So, even if I supported Congress earlier, today I don’t because there are others doing better work. Thus, I don’t see the party managing to come back to power in a big way,” he says.

Others, however, are less dismissive. But notably, they believe Congress’s rise now will depend on how the BJP performs.

“This time, I think BJP will win the Lok Sabha elections. However, what will happen after five years, we can’t say yet. If BJP slides and stops working for people, or becomes arrogant and makes mistakes, then Congress will certainly come back,” says Shanta Baruah of Kaliabor town.

“It all depends on how the BJP performs.”

Dynast as incumbent

For Gogoi, meanwhile, this could be a tough battle. With Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) not fielding a candidate here, the party is relying on the substantial minority vote to see it through.

“We don’t think Gaurav Gogoi has been successful. He has been MP from here for five years but we haven’t seen him even once,” says Rajib Kurmi.

Kaliabor MP and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi addressing party workers in his constituency | Ruhi Tewari | ThePrint

“Gaurav Gogoi is from Assam but can barely speak Assamese. We elected him, but have seen him only on television. We hear he hardly comes here,” says Utpal Gogoi.

Besides the burden of the unpopularity of his party, the young Congress leader’s own track record could turn out to be his undoing.

Minority vote

However, it isn’t as if the Congress has no support left in the constituency. The minority voter of Kaliabor is firmly standing behind the party. Some of them say it doesn’t matter what the party has done in terms of work.

“Nobody has really done good work. They just promise to work, but then don’t do anything. And come back after five years to ask for votes. But I support Congress,” says Baharul Haldar, a young graduate who has not been able to get a job.

“Whether or not it does any work, it maintains peace. We just want peace.”

Haldar says everyone can live in harmony if Congress comes back because there has been “discrimination under BJP”.

“They want to create differences between Hindus and Muslims. We feel bad about many things. We are like one family. In Kaliabor, we all live together. But when it comes to religion, we get divided. Look at what the BJP tried to do with the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill,” Haldar adds.

Akbar Ansari, a shop owner in Golaghat town, agrees. “At least, we feel safe under Congress. That is enough for us.”

Biswas Gohain, another resident of the town, says the debate over the successive governments’ development work is a “never-ending competition”.

“How can we say Congress did nothing? It isn’t as if we are exactly where we were in 1947. What, however, is most important is peace and brotherhood, which they ensure. BJP has communalised the state and country,” he says.

The AIUDF has put up candidates in only three seats — Dhubri, Karimganj and Barpeta — and the Congress hopes that with the minority vote intact, particularly in seats where the number is high, it can trump the BJP.

‘Voters are excited’

Gaurav Gogoi, meanwhile, believes voters are supporting Congress in Kaliabor because of Modi government’s economic policies that are “hurting the poor”, and the hypocrisy of the BJP-AGP alliance.

The young dynast also claims the voter is “excited” about the Congress minimum income guarantee scheme — NYAY.

“Voters are waiting for a change and for the Congress to come to power because they are really excited about the minimum income guarantee scheme Shri Rahul Gandhi ji has announced,” he tells ThePrint.

Gogoi says the 2014 elections were unique, “almost like a Black Swan event”.

“But in 2019, people are looking at this election to regain their sense of freedom. Young people are especially tired of the central government telling them what to wear, what to eat, whom to marry and how to express their religious beliefs,” says Gogoi.

The young see “hope” in the Congress, he says.

Kaliabor is set to vote in the first phase of general elections on 11 April.