Chennai: The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have sealed an alliance last year, but the two parties remain locked in a stalemate on formal seat-sharing talks for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
The AIADMK and BJP are also in a silent tussle over who will lead seat-sharing negotiations in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), especially over discussions with smaller allies such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), intending to consolidate anti-DMK votes.
While Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) remains the NDA’s chief ministerial face, seat-sharing talks over specific constituencies remain a challenge, delaying a decision on the number of seats for the BJP.
Earlier, the AIADMK and BJP seemed keen on including actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in the NDA fold. However, with a tepid response from Vijay’s party, the NDA now appears to have changed its tone.
On Tuesday, the BJP sacked A.N.S. Prasad from the spokesperson’s post after he indirectly invited Vijay to join the NDA alliance, saying all political forces opposed to the DMK should consider working together to avoid splitting the anti-incumbency vote. Tamil Nadu BJP chief Nainar Nagendran later said talks of alliance with TVK were just rumours.
Seat-sharing negotiations between the BJP and the AIADMK began last December when Union Minister Piyush Goyal, the BJP’s Tamil Nadu election in-charge, met EPS in Chennai. The early talks emphasised improving ground-level coordination and seat allocation.
Later, the talks were also delayed or rescheduled around events, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 1 March visit to the state.
Earlier this month, EPS met Union Home Minister Amit Shah, but the talks did not seem to have led to any concrete conclusions, as formal announcements have not been made yet.
“The alliance is intact, and the talks are ongoing alongside election rallies and events, in coordination with the BJP leaders too. The prime minister is visiting Tamil Nadu on March 11 and the party will be finalising the seats after the talks. The announcements will come from our senior leaders,” an AIADMK functionary told ThePrint.
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Where negotiations are stuck
For now, seat-sharing talks remain at a standstill with the BJP pushing for a higher number of seats than it contested previously.
Though EPS has repeatedly said there is no confusion within the alliance, negotiations seem strained. While the BJP aims to expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu beyond its limited presence, the AIADMK does not want to cede its Dravidian base. It plans to contest more than 170 of the 234 Assembly seats and views the BJP’s ask as excessive.
The BJP is pressing for more than 35 seats, which is significantly higher than the 20 seats it contested in the 2021 elections. It won 4 of the 20 seats in the last Assembly elections and secured a three percent vote share.
Though the BJP did not win any seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, its vote share stood at 11 percent, bolstering its case for a larger number of seats in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The BJP, said party sources, is also insisting on specific constituencies, including Coimbatore North, Tiruppur South, Modakurichi, Pollachi, Coimbatore South, Valparai, and Mettupalayam, Ooty, Coonoor, Hosur, and Thalli.
Currently, Tiruppur South and Coonoor are with the DMK, while the Congress holds Ooty, and the CPI has Thalli. The AIADMK holds Coimbatore North, Mettupalayam and Valparai, while some of the others are with the BJP.
In Chennai and neighbouring areas, it expects T. Nagar, Velachery, Mylapore, Virugambakkam, Avadi and Kancheepuram, which are currently either DMK or Congress seats.
In southern districts, it’s eyeing Nagercoil and Thirupparankundram, which are with the BJP, while Killiyoor, Nanguneri, and Vilavancode are held by the DMK or Congress.
The AIADMK did not win a single seat in the 2024 elections either, but had a vote share of 21 percent.
For the upcoming state elections, party sources said the AIADMK does not want to allocate more than 25 seats to the BJP.
T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s AMMK expects 6-10 seats, and the PMK around 20-23 seats.
Another point of conflict is over who controls the allocation of seats, as the Tamil Nadu BJP unit has sought the authority to allocate seats for itself and smaller partners, which the AIADMK has resisted.
The BJP’s Narayanan Thirupathy, chief spokesperson of the party’s state unit, told ThePrint, “We have worked with many parties in the alliance. We will all sit together and see where we have a higher success rate. We will plan the seats accordingly to ensure every party has a stronghold where it contests.”
“We are not focused on only individual party wins; it’s about the alliance, and this involves give and take, which we are willing to get into. The high command of the AIADMK and our senior party members from the centre will decide on seat sharing,” he added.
He said there was no deadline, as of now, and the allocation of seats had not been finalised yet. “The announcements may take some time,” he said.
Political analysts told ThePrint that the AIADMK would accommodate its alliance parties, the PMK and AMMK, and allocate them seats where they had considerable local support.
The Thevar community’s votes is rucial for the AIADMK from the southern districts of Tamil Nadu, and since T.T.V. Dhinakaran comes from this community, allocating seats for the AMMK in these regions would be beneficial for the AIADMK.
O. Panneerselvam (OPS) also belongs to the same community and has a strong hold on these seats.
“Dhinakaran might expect the seats where OPS would have contested, if he were a part of the AIADMK, since they both belong to the same caste and the party enjoys good support in southern districts. In order to accommodate that, the AIADMK cannot increase the share of the BJP,” said political analyst Mathur Sathya.
“Moreover, the BJP vote share has increased, but it might not translate into seats. So the AIADMK is hesitant to give them more seats than in 2021,” he added.
Friction over who leads negotiation
Mathur also said talks had been delayed because of tensions over who should lead the seat-sharing negotiations in the NDA. He said that if the NDA had been led by AIADMK leaders independently in the state, the negotiations would have been settled by now.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the AIADMK, led by EPS and OPS, positioned itself as the dominant party in the NDA alliance because the BJP had a limited footprint at the time.
Besides the 20 seats, the Kanyakumari Lok Sabha bypoll seat was also given to the BJP, which it contested and won.
But the situation has changed now, Mathur said.
“Union Minister Amit Shah is involved in decision-making, and negotiations are led by the BJP. Seat-sharing discussions aren’t just for the AIADMK, but the BJP also decides on the seats of the other minor parties in the alliance,” he said.
“The delay in the announcement of the election date also gives them the time to make their final announcements on seat sharing. However, it is high time, and the election dates should be out by now,” he added.
Analysts said the alliance’s success hinges on resolving these differences quickly. The DMK has already announced its alliance with the Congress, giving it 28 seats in the upcoming elections.
While the situation remains fluid, analysts see the potential for resolution soon ahead of the elections.
(Edited by Sugita Katyal)
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