BJP could bench 40-50% of its 57 Uttarakhand MLAs, who are seen as ‘unsafe poll bets’

25-30 names have been identified in the first round of a two-part BJP assessment in Uttarakhand. Final list to be decided after 2nd round ends in the next fortnight.

(From left) Representational image of Uttarakhand BJP president Madan Kaushik, CM Pushkar Singh Dhami, and ministers Ajay Bhatt and Ganesh Joshi | File photo: ANI

Dehradun: After carrying out a complete overhaul of its cabinet in Gujarat, the BJP could next bench 40-50 per cent of its incumbent Uttarakhand MLAs in the assembly elections in about five months’ time, if the initial findings of a two-part assessment exercise hold true, ThePrint has learnt.

The list may include ministers, according to senior Uttarakhand BJP leaders who are involved in the assessment exercise, being carried out at the direction of the BJP’s state in-charge Dushyant Gautam, with national general secretary B.L. Santhosh monitoring it.

As part of the first round, the sources said, a select group of around 10-11 senior party leaders from Delhi and the state organisation visited assembly constituencies to assess the level of anti-incumbency against each of the BJP’s 57 MLAs. The team included four state general secretaries, Gautam, and Lok Sabha MP Rekha Verma, the BJP’s co-in-charge for Uttarakhand. The drive was conducted between 1 and 20 September. 

A second survey to understand the public perception about BJP legislators is currently underway, and is likely to take another fortnight. The names of leaders who will not be nominated again will be decided subsequently, the sources said.

Speaking to ThePrint, Uttarakhand BJP president Madan Kaushik acknowledged that an assessment of anti-incumbency against party MLAs is being done with a view to decide their nominations in the 2022 election. However, he refused to speak about its outcome. 

“Performance assessment of legislators is a traditional exercise of the BJP. It’s an ongoing process and the central leadership keeps watch on our performances through this. Shortlisting non-performers is also a part of this exercise,” Kaushik said. “However, I cannot comment on its outcome as it’s directly concerned with the central leadership. It would be a transgression on my part since action on the survey outcome will be taken by the party leadership.”

Elections to the 70-seat Uttarakhand assembly will be held early next year. Since its first election in 2002, the state has never voted back an incumbent government.

BJP spokesperson Manbir Chauhan said assessing “legislators’ performance has been a norm and integral part of the BJP’s electoral preparations but every person is not privy to it”. 

“Its terms and conditions may also be circumstantial, which helps party leadership take its future course of action in order to frame future electoral plans. It’s difficult to say anything on the fate of sitting MLAs as the task is always handled by senior party leaders,” Chauhan said. 

“Our goal is to return to power with 60 seats and break the myth of non-return of incumbent governments in the state. The BJP leadership is working on its election strategy with this agenda irrespective of the hurdles on the way,” he added.

‘Names yet to be finalised’

BJP leaders and office-bearers engaged in the survey said the central leadership had asked the assessment team “to first have a feel of the state of anti-incumbency against the MLAs, as this will also reflect five years’ activities of ministers in-charge”. 

“This is now being followed by an ongoing second survey which will finalise the names of the MLAs to be dropped in ticket distribution,” said a senior BJP leader. 

“So far, 25-30 names have been found unfit to contest the 2022 elections. The number may go up after the survey is over in the next 10 days. The change of government in Gujarat is now a benchmark for the party leadership,” the leader added.

The final list, the BJP leader said, may surprise everyone in the party as it “will include ministers of the Pushkar Singh Dhami cabinet as well”.

A second party spokesperson, who didn’t wish to be named, said the names of “all the MLAs to be dropped have not been finalised yet but nearly half of them have been identified for replacement”. 

“They are bound to lose if the party re-nominates them for the 2022 state elections. Hectic consultations with voters and lower-rung party workers on the winnability of legislators are going on in every constituency,” the spokesperson added. 

(Edited by Sunanda Ranjan)